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尽管处于传统的看跌时期,但比特币 (BTC) 本月的 66,072.84 美元即将创下 9 月份有史以来最好的价格,同时散户回归的迹象也开始出现。
Bitcoin BTC $66,072.84 is headed for its best September ever, despite the period being traditionally bearish, while signs of retail returning are starting to emerge.
比特币 BTC 66,072.84 美元将迎来有史以来最好的 9 月份,尽管这个时期传统上看跌,但散户回归的迹象开始出现。
Previously, the highest gain observed in September was a 6% rally back in 2016.
此前,9 月份观察到的最高涨幅是 2016 年的 6%。
BTC
比特币
$66,072.84
$66,072.84
Bitcoin monthly returns(%) chart year over year. Source: CoinGlass
比特币月回报率(%)同比图表。来源:CoinGlass
Bitcoin has also witnessed gains during each month in Q4, whenever the last month of Q3 has been bullish. 2015, 2016, and 2023 are all prime examples of a potential bullish quarter ahead in 2024.
每当第三季度最后一个月看涨时,比特币在第四季度的每个月也都出现上涨。 2015 年、2016 年和 2023 年都是 2024 年潜在看涨季度的典型例子。
Multiple Bitcoin metrics flip bullish
多个比特币指标转为看涨
In an X post, Cryptquant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno highlighted that the Coinbase premium reached a two-week high on Sept. 26, as prices pushed past the $65,000 range.
Cryptquant 的研究主管 Julio Moreno 在 X 帖子中强调,随着价格突破 65,000 美元的区间,Coinbase 溢价在 9 月 26 日达到两周高点。
Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium index chart. Source: CryptoQuant
比特币:Coinbase Premium 指数图表。来源:CryptoQuant
The Coinbase premium is often used as an index of US retail investor demand — the higher the value, the more buying pressure. Moreover, the Coinbase premium return currently coincides with an increase in spot Bitcoin ETFs daily inflows.
Coinbase 溢价通常被用作美国散户投资者需求的指数——价值越高,购买压力越大。此外,Coinbase 溢价回报目前与现货比特币 ETF 每日流入量的增加同时发生。
As reported by Cointelegraph, total aggregated inflows for the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs were $365.7 million on Sept. 26, as BTC price reached new monthly highs.
据 Cointelegraph 报道,9 月 26 日,随着 BTC 价格创下月度新高,11 只现货比特币 ETF 的总资金流入达到 3.657 亿美元。
This suggests that institutional investors are slowly turning their attention toward Bitcoin once again after favorable interest rate cuts were announced earlier this month.
这表明,在本月早些时候宣布有利的降息之后,机构投资者正在慢慢地将注意力再次转向比特币。
Meanwhile, the spot cumulative volume delta across all exchanges also reached a new monthly high, with the net buy side of spot volumes dominating the chart.
与此同时,各交易所的现货累计交易量Delta也创出月度新高,现货交易量的净买入方在图表中占据主导地位。
Bitcoin spot cumulative volume delta. Source: Glassnode
比特币现货累计交易量增量。来源:Glassnode
This could be another indication of retail investors coming back, but more evidence is needed to confirm the trend.
这可能是散户投资者回归的另一个迹象,但需要更多证据来证实这一趋势。
Bitcoin forms first “HTF” bull pattern in 5 months
比特币形成 5 个月来首个“HTF”牛市模式
On Sept. 23, Cointelegraph highlighted that Bitcoin was attempting to clear $65,000 to create a new higher high pattern. Three days later, BTC managed to close a daily candle above the previous resistance at a higher time frame, or HTF, which broke a five-month bear trend.
9 月 23 日,Cointelegraph 强调,比特币正试图突破 65,000 美元以创造新的更高高点。三天后,BTC 成功收盘,收盘价高于先前阻力位(HTF),打破了五个月的熊市趋势。
Related: Q4 crypto rally chances ‘exceptionally high,’ fueled by BTC $65K breakout
相关:在 BTC 突破 6.5 万美元的推动下,第四季度加密货币反弹的可能性“异常高”
As illustrated in the chart, the previous higher low (HL) and lower low (LL) pattern was broken after Bitcoin closed a daily candle above the HTF resistance at $65,000. An HTF breakout strongly indicates a potential new long-term trend forming on the chart.
如图所示,比特币在 HTF 阻力位 65,000 美元上方收盘后,先前的较高低点 (HL) 和较低低点 (LL) 模式被打破。 HTF 突破强烈表明图表上潜在的新长期趋势正在形成。
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
比特币 1 日图表。来源:TradingView
It is important to note that the current HH and HL pattern could still witness a pullback going forward, but that will be considered a bullish trend swing low.
值得注意的是,当前的 HH 和 HL 形态未来仍可能出现回调,但这将被视为看涨趋势摆动低点。
Thus, the key resistance levels to watch are now $68,100 and $71,500, which BTC/USD failed to overcome in the summer.
因此,现在值得关注的关键阻力位是 68,100 美元和 71,500 美元,比特币/美元在夏季未能克服这些阻力位。
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险,读者在做出决定时应自行研究。
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