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一位分析师表示:“新的现金流入可能会间接推高比特币的价格,特别是从长期角度来看。”
Bitcoin (BTC) prices appear to be following the growth in the Chinese central bank's balance sheet over the last eight years, maintaining a strong positive 30-day correlation.
过去八年里,比特币 (BTC) 价格似乎跟随中国央行资产负债表的增长,保持着很强的 30 天正相关性。
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) holds roughly $6.22 trillion in U.S. dollars on its balance sheet. At press time, the 30-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin's price and the PBOC's balance sheet size was 0.66, according to data source TradingView. The correlation has remained positive throughout the period, except for 2016 and from late 2022 to 2023.
中国人民银行 (PBOC) 的资产负债表上持有约 6.22 万亿美元。根据数据源TradingView的数据,截至发稿时,比特币价格与央行资产负债表规模之间的30天相关系数为0.66。除 2016 年以及 2022 年底至 2023 年外,整个时期内相关性一直保持正相关。
On the other hand, bitcoin had a -0.88 correlation over 30 days with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the lowest on record since 2016.
另一方面,比特币在 30 天内与美联储资产负债表的相关性为 -0.88,为 2016 年以来有记录以来的最低水平。
A strong correlation ranges from 0.6-0.9, while 0.8-1 is considered a very strong correlation. Correlations are a statistical measure of how two variables are related and can be used in financial markets to predict or track asset prices.
强相关性范围为 0.6-0.9,而 0.8-1 被认为是非常强的相关性。相关性是两个变量如何相关的统计度量,可用于金融市场来预测或跟踪资产价格。
The positive correlation is significant, especially as the PBOC announced earlier this week that it was considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to enhance their ability to support the struggling economy.
这种正相关性非常显着,尤其是中国央行本周早些时候宣布,正在考虑向其最大的国有银行注入高达 1 万亿元人民币(1,420 亿美元)的资本,以增强其支持陷入困境的经济的能力。
The central bank also reduced the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points (bps) and the seven-day reverse repo rate – the interest rate at which a central bank borrows funds from commercial banks – by 20 bps to 1.5%.
央行还将内地银行的存款准备金率下调50个基点,并将7天逆回购利率(央行向商业银行借款的利率)下调20个基点至1.5%。
BTC has risen nearly 3% this week and over 10% for the month, according to CoinDesk data. Following the PBOC's stimulus measures, Asian stocks, particularly those in China, have also surged.
根据 CoinDesk 的数据,BTC 本周上涨近 3%,本月上涨超过 10%。随着中国央行的刺激措施,亚洲股市,尤其是中国股市也大幅上涨。
The CSI 300 Index of large-cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday, bringing the gain for the week to 16%, the highest since 2008.
沪深300大盘股指数周五飙升4.5%,本周涨幅达到16%,创2008年以来最高。
In a Telegram message to CoinDesk on Friday, market analyst Nick Ruck highlighted that the stimulus, like that provided by the U.S., aims to reduce unemployment and encourage business growth, which could have an indirect effect on bitcoin's price, especially over the long term.
市场分析师 Nick Ruck 在周五发给 CoinDesk 的 Telegram 消息中强调,刺激措施(如美国提供的刺激措施)旨在减少失业率并鼓励企业增长,这可能会对比特币的价格产生间接影响,尤其是从长期来看。
“The stimulus could lead to increased investment in blockchain companies that may include mining technology and startups,” Ruck explained. “Select funds may also be able to increase exposure to crypto-related investments offshore, such as in stock-listed firms and ETFs in Hong Kong.”
“刺激措施可能会导致对区块链公司的投资增加,其中可能包括采矿技术和初创公司,”鲁克解释道。 “某些基金还可能增加对离岸加密货币相关投资的投资,例如香港的股票上市公司和 ETF。”
Others anticipate that the boost will extend beyond bitcoin, benefiting all riskier assets in the upcoming months.
其他人预计,这种提振将超越比特币,在未来几个月内使所有风险较高的资产受益。
“It’s all the green light for global risk markets as U.S. equities hit new ATHs for the 3rd time this week, helped by a rapid-fire of furious stimulus to resuscitate the long-struggling Chinese economy,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk. “This has led macro observers to turn explicitly bullish on all risk assets in the interim, with a seemingly globally synchronized easing move that was reminiscent of the easy-money days from the QE era.”
SOFA 洞察主管 Augustine Fan 表示:“在旨在重振长期陷入困境的中国经济的猛烈刺激措施的帮助下,美国股市本周第三次触及新高,这为全球风险市场开了绿灯。” ,告诉 CoinDesk。 “这导致宏观观察人士在此期间明确看好所有风险资产,看似全球同步的宽松举措让人想起量化宽松时代的宽松货币时代。”
“Naturally, crypto prices are still highly correlated to equity performance. However, investor sentiment seems to have flipped to a ‘buy the dip’ mode, and risk-reward favors a continued rally with no or little downside catalysts in sight,” Fan added.
“当然,加密货币价格仍然与股票表现高度相关。然而,投资者情绪似乎已转向‘逢低买入’模式,风险回报有利于持续反弹,看不到或几乎没有下行催化剂,”范补充道。
The Block Commodities Editor Shaurya Malwa covered the story.
大宗商品编辑 Shaurya Malwa 报道了这个故事。
CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which also owns Grayscale, Genesis Trading, CoinDesk Indexes and Foundry.
CoinDesk 是数字货币集团的独立运营子公司,该集团还拥有 Grayscale、Genesis Trading、CoinDesk Indexes 和 Foundry。
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