比特币（BTC）价格显示出罕见的折扣，因为60天实现的市值差异价值（RCV）下降到其记录下的最低水平

比特币的价格表现出罕见的折扣，因为其60天对市值差异（RCV）的价值下降到最低水平

Key Insights:

关键见解：

* Bitcoin price is showing a rare discount as its 60-day Realized Value to Market Cap Variance (RCV) drops to its lowest level on record.

*比特币价格表现出罕见的折扣，因为其60天对市场上限差异（RCV）的价值下降到其最低水平。

* At the time of writing, BTC price is experiencing some resistance in retail investor demand while negative funding rates and a declining Coinbase Premium indicate strong bearish sentiment.

*在撰写本文时，BTC的价格在散户投资者的需求中遇到一些抵抗，而负资金率和下降的Coinbase Premium表示强烈的看跌情绪。

* However, data suggests a key moment for accumulation as 60-day RCV drops to lows not seen since 2023.

*但是，数据表明，由于60天的RCV下降到自2023年以来从未见过的低点，积累的关键时刻。

Following a recent downturn, Bitcoin price experienced a rebound from key Fibonacci support levels, reaching highs of $92,000 in February 2025.

在最近的经济低迷之后，比特币价格从斐波那契的主要支持水平反弹，2025年2月达到92,000美元。

However, despite this recovery attempt, the cryptocurrency encountered resistance at the 0% neutral level on an indicator called Retail Investor Demand (RID). This is an important indicator of Bitcoin adoption and buying interest.

但是，尽管尝试了这种恢复尝试，但加密货币在0％中性水平上遇到了一个称为零售投资者需求（RID）的指标。这是比特币采用和购买利息的重要指标。

As seen on the chart above, after a period of oversaturated demand, the indicator began to quickly fall back into negative territory.

如上图所示，在一段时间的需求过多之后，指标开始迅速落入负面领域。

This had a significant impact on BTC price, causing it to drop to $88,000. However, data suggests that demand is quickly picking up again.

这对BTC价格产生了重大影响，使其下降到88,000美元。但是，数据表明需求正在迅速恢复。

According to Glassnode, when RID moves above 0%, Bitcoin generally enjoys new momentum. This metric is being closely monitored by analysts to determine whether Bitcoin will bounce upward or remain at these secondary levels.

根据GlassNode的说法，当RID移动到0％以上时，比特币通常会享有新的动力。分析师正在密切监视该指标，以确定比特币是向上反弹还是保持在这些次要水平。

After a period of high volatility following the cryptocurrency winter of 2022, market conditions have calmed down, and recent data shows that many exchanges have begun to experience negative funding rates.

经过2022年加密货币冬季之后的高波动性，市场状况已经平静下来，最近的数据表明，许多交易所已经开始经历负资金率负数。

If futures price is less than spot price, it’s an excess of the short positions and results in negative funding rate on futures exchanges. If futures price is greater than spot price, it’s called funding rate.

如果期货价格低于现货价格，则超出了短期职位，并导致期货交易所的负资金率负数。如果期货价格大于现货价格，则称为融资率。

This signals that traders are short on Bitcoin and anticipate a price drop in the coming period. However, if the total value of futures is less than the market cap of Bitcoin, it indicates that there are more buyers than sellers in the market.

这表明交易者对比特币缺乏，并预计未来时期的价格下跌。但是，如果期货的总价值小于比特币市值，则表明买卖双方的买卖双方比市场上的卖家多。

Moreover, the Coinbase Premium has turned negative, indicating that selling pressure is intensifying on Coinbase compared to other exchanges.

此外，Coinbase Premium已变为负面，表明与其他交易所相比，销售压力正在加剧Coinbase。

This metric measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other platforms. Typically, when Coinbase trades at a premium, it suggests stronger buying activity from institutional investors. Conversely, a negative premium indicates a stronger presence of sell-side traders, such as institutional and retail investors.

该指标衡量了Coinbase和其他平台上比特币之间的价格差异。通常，当Coinbase以溢价交易时，它表明从机构投资者那里购买活动更强大。相反，负溢价表明卖方交易者（例如机构和零售投资者）的存在。

Key Moment For Accumulation As 60-Day RCV Drops To Its Lowest Level On Record

积累的关键时刻，因为60天的RCV下降到记录的最低水平

Bitcoin’s 60-day RCV, which stands for Realized Value to Market Cap Variance, has dropped to its lowest point ever, reaching a 0.27 reading.

比特币的60天RCV代表了对市场上限差异的实现价值，已下降到有史以来最低点，达到0.27读数。

This metric, created by renowned on-chain analyst Willy Wu, measures the correlation between Bitcoin’s realized and market capitalization over a rolling window of 60 days. A lower RCV indicates a more favorable buying zone, while a higher RCV suggests overvaluation.

该指标由著名的链分析师Willy Wu创建，衡量了比特币在60天的滚动窗口中实现的与市值之间的相关性。较低的RCV表示更有利的购买区，而更高的RCV表明高估。

As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s Normalized RCV is currently in the lowest territory, and at this point, it has entered the “Low Risk (Accumulation Zone)” before price recoveries in the past.

如图所示，比特币的归一化RCV当前处于最低的领域，此时，在价格回收之前，它已经进入了“低风险（累积区）”。

This metric dropping below 0.30 has often put Bitcoin in strong buy zones, with prior similar occurrences in history, such as in 2011 and 2015, later showing up as ideal accumulation zones.

该指标下降到0.30以下，通常将比特币放在强大的购买区中，在2011年和2015年（如在2011年和2015年），其先前类似的事件是理想的积累区域。

After the 2011 drop, Bitcoin went on a 600% run in the following two years. A similar occurrence in 2015 saw Bitcoin enter a four-year bull market after the RCV dropped below 0.30.

在2011年下降后，比特币在接下来的两年中持续了600％。在2015年，在RCV下降到0.30以下之后，比特币在2015年发生了类似的情况。

This time around, the metric fell below this crucial point in December 2024, presenting a unique opportunity for long-term investors to utilize Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to scale into BTC positions.

这次，度量标准降至2024年12月的关键点之下，为长期投资者提供了利用美元成本平均（DCA）来扩展到BTC职位的独特机会。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $42,000, which is also the level at which 60-day RCV dropped below 0.30.

在撰写本文时，比特币的价格徘徊在42,000美元左右，这也是60天的RCV降至0.30以下的水平。

This triple confluence at a key technical support, technical indicator, and on-chain metric suggests that the cryptocurrency could be deeply undervalued.

在关键的技术支持，技术指标和链链指标的三重汇合处表明，加密货币可以被深深地低估。