比特币（BTC）价格集会刚刚开始

根据X（以前是Twitter）的加密分析师Martyparty的说法，自2023年以来的比特币价格集会主要是由Spot Bitcoin ETF驱动的。

Given the bearish state of the market and the recent Bitcoin price crash below $95,000, it’s unsurprising if many would believe that the end of the bull market is here. However, a crypto analyst negates this possibility, sharing details regarding the current position the market is in this bull cycle.

鉴于市场状况和最近的比特币价格崩溃低于95,000美元，这不足为奇，如果很多人相信牛市的终结就在这里。但是，一位加密分析师否定了这种可能性，分享有关市场在该牛周期中的当前位置的详细信息。

Bitcoin Price Rally Has Just Begun

比特币价格集会刚刚开始

According to MartyParty, a crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter), the Bitcoin price rally since 2023 has been primarily driven by institutional adoption through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. This price increase also occurred without the help of Quantitative Easing (QE), rate reductions, or liquidity injections.

根据X（以前是Twitter）的加密分析师Martyparty的说法，自2023年以来的比特币价格集会主要是由Spot Bitcoin ETF驱动的。在没有定量宽松（QE），降低速度或流动性注射的情况下，这种价格上涨也发生了。

People keep saying "bull market is over" but we're still in a bear market.

人们一直说“牛市已经结束”，但我们仍在熊市。

The Bitcoin price rally since 2023 has been driven mainly by institutional adoption with Spot Bitcoin ETFs and occurred without QE, rate reductions, or liquidity injections.

自2023年以来的比特币价格集会主要是由现货比特币ETF的机构采用的，并且没有量化宽松，降低速度或流动性注射。

Also, Trump presidency & Biden presidency both saw bull markets. pic.twitter.com/x7uZ7b7e7B

此外，特朗普总统和拜登总统职位都看到了牛市。 pic.twitter.com/x7uz7b7e7b

— MartyParty (@martyswinnery) August 28, 2023

- MartyParty（@martyswinnery）2023年8月28日

What this means is that while Bitcoin has risen over the past year, the true bull market is yet to come. The analyst argues that a real crypto bull market is expected when the Federal Reserve (FED) shifts to an accommodative stance, suggesting a stop in Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the beginning of rate cuts.

这意味着，尽管比特币在过去一年中已经上升，但真正的牛市尚未到来。这位分析师认为，当美联储（美联储）转移到适应性立场时，预计将有一个真正的加密牛市，这表明定量收紧（QT）和降低税率的开始。

The Federal Reserve plays a critical role in determining the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, crypto bull cycles have thrived in environments where liquidity is high, interest rates are low, and speculative risk-taking is encouraged.

美联储在确定比特币和其他加密货币的长期轨迹方面起着至关重要的作用。从历史上看，加密牛周期在流动性高，利率低并且鼓励投机冒险的环境中蓬勃发展。

However, since 2022, the FED has aggressively tightened monetary policy to prevent further inflation, raising interest rates and decreasing liquidity through QT. Despite these unfavorable market conditions, Bitcoin experienced a historic uptrend, largely due to institutional inflows into Spot ETFs and political changes, including the inauguration of Donald Trump as the new United States (US) President.

但是，自2022年以来，美联储积极收紧货币政策，以防止通货膨胀，提高利率并通过QT降低流动性。尽管有这些不利的市场状况，比特币经历了历史性的上升趋势，这主要是由于机构流入了现货ETF和政治变化，包括唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）担任新美国总统的开幕典礼。

Although the market is currently in a downtrend, with concerns rising over the possibility of a bear market, MartyParty emphasizes that the bull market, where altcoins surge alongside Bitcoin, will likely begin when the FED shifts from QT to QE. The analyst declared that the bull market had not begun at all, highlighting that current market dips and crypto crashes present a prime accumulation opportunity for investors.

尽管市场目前处于下降趋势，但由于担心熊市的可能性，Martyparty强调，当美联储从QT转移到量化宽松时，Altcoins与比特币一起激增的牛市可能会开始。分析师宣布，牛市根本没有开始，这强调了当前的市场下降和加密货币崩溃为投资者带来了主要的积累机会。

He urges the broader crypto community to begin accumulating tokens now, when Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) still dominate the market and sentiment is negative. Historically, periods of market decline often precede major price surges; however, investors should still maintain caution as the market remains volatile and unpredictable.

他敦促更广泛的加密社区现在开始积累令牌，当恐惧，不确定性和怀疑（FUD）仍然主导着市场和情感是负面的。从历史上看，市场下降时期通常是在重大价格上涨之前的。但是，由于市场仍然动荡且不可预测，投资者仍应保持谨慎。

Analyst Says Market Is Positioned At A Bear Trap

分析师说，市场位于熊陷阱

While MartyParty claims that the bull run has not even begun, the analyst has also revealed that the market may be in a bear trap. For more clarity, a bear trap is a market situation where an asset's prices drop rapidly but quickly reverse and continue on a stronger upward momentum. Depending on how severe the price declines are, a bear trap can easily be confused for a bear market.

尽管Martyparty声称牛跑甚至还没有开始，但分析师还透露，市场可能处于熊陷阱。为了更加清楚，熊陷阱是一种市场状况，资产的价格迅速下降但迅速逆转并继续以更强的向上势头。根据价格下降的严重程度，熊陷阱很容易在熊市中混淆。

The analyst has warned investors not to fall for this market's bear trap, predicting the onset of a full-fledged bull market when FED rates decrease. He highlights that a critical moment to look out for was March 19, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will provide updates on the US economic outlook and potential rate cuts.

该分析师警告投资者不要落入该市场的熊陷阱，预测当美联储率降低时，成熟的牛市的开始。他强调，要注意的关键时刻是3月19日，届时联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将提供有关美国经济前景和潜在降低利率的最新信息。