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自 2013 年以来,比特币 (BTC) 在 11 年内有 9 年在 10 月份实现了正回报,因此获得了“Uptober”的绰号。
Bitcoin (BTC) has historically performed well in October, leading to the moniker “Uptober.” As September ends, Finbold used OpenAI's o1 artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict BTC's price based on past results.
比特币(BTC)历来在 10 月份表现良好,因此被称为“Uptober”。截至 9 月底,Finbold 使用 OpenAI 的 o1 人工智能 (AI) 模型根据过去的结果预测 BTC 的价格。
The o1 AI, considered one of the world's most advanced models, calculated a potential price range for Bitcoin in 2024's “Uptober.” To do this, OpenAI's o1 used the average and median monthly historical results from October's opening to closing prices.
o1 AI 被认为是世界上最先进的模型之一,它在 2024 年的“Uptober”中计算出了比特币的潜在价格范围。为此,OpenAI 的 o1 使用了从 10 月份开盘价到收盘价的月度历史结果平均值和中位数。
As a result, o1 predicts that BTC will trade between $80,800 and $83,900 by the month's end. This prediction assumes an opening price of $65,717, as we prompted the exchange rate at the time of writing.
因此,o1 预测 BTC 月底交易价格将在 80,800 美元至 83,900 美元之间。这一预测假设开盘价为 65,717 美元,正如我们在撰写本文时提示的汇率一样。
Bitcoin's Uptober historical results
比特币的 Uptober 历史结果
Interestingly, while October has historically positive returns, September is dominated by negative returns, also known as the “September Effect.” The market has then seen “Uptober” as a month of investing opportunities with notable results for the leading cryptocurrency.
有趣的是,虽然 10 月历史上有正回报,但 9 月却以负回报为主,也称为“九月效应”。随后,市场将“Uptober”视为领先加密货币投资机会显着的一个月。
Notably, the only two negative years registered moderate losses of 3.83% and 12.95% in 2018 and 2014, respectively. Meanwhile, 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2023 had massive gains of 60.79%, 47.81%, 39.93%, and 28.52%, respectively.
值得注意的是,仅有的两个负增长年份分别为 2018 年和 2014 年,分别为 3.83% 和 12.95%。与此同时,2013年、2017年、2021年和2023年的涨幅分别为60.79%、47.81%、39.93%和28.52%。
This year, 2024, saw Bitcoin's fourth halving, an important event for BTC investors, traders, and miners, which changes its economics. Previous halving years were 2020 and 2016, registering “Uptober” gains of 27.7% and 14.71%, respectively.
今年,即 2024 年,比特币第四次减半,这对比特币投资者、交易者和矿工来说是一个重要事件,这改变了比特币的经济状况。之前的减半年是 2020 年和 2016 年,“Uptober”收益分别为 27.7% 和 14.71%。
On average, October has returned 22.90% to traders who bought on the first day and sold on the last. The median results are even higher, nearing 28% gains, according to data Finbold retrieved from CoinGlass on September 29.
平均而言,10 月份第一天买入、最后一天卖出的交易者的回报率为 22.90%。根据 Finbold 9 月 29 日从 CoinGlass 检索到的数据,中值结果甚至更高,接近 28% 的涨幅。
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
比特币(BTC)价格分析
Bitcoin price is on the rise, already up from when we prompted OpenAI's o1 for the “Uptober” prediction. Right now, BTC trades at $65,870 against the dollar, up 56.07% year-to-date, although displaying a six-month downtrend.
比特币价格正在上涨,比我们提示 OpenAI 的 o1 做出“Uptober”预测时已经上涨。目前,比特币兑美元交易价格为 65,870 美元,今年迄今已上涨 56.07%,尽管呈现出六个月的下跌趋势。
However, while most market participants expect an overall positive October, the volatility can still hit in the meantime. Traders and investors must remain cautious as the month develops and avoid overexposure in leveraged positions without proper risk management.
然而,尽管大多数市场参与者预计 10 月份总体乐观,但与此同时波动仍可能发生。随着月份的发展,交易者和投资者必须保持谨慎,避免在没有适当风险管理的情况下过度投资杠杆头寸。
These positions create liquidity pools that Bitcoin first needs to clear before moving to its next targets. In counterpoint, data still shows a significantly low interest in BTC, similar to levels seen in the previous bear market.
这些头寸创建了比特币在转向下一个目标之前首先需要清算的流动性池。与此相反,数据仍然显示人们对 BTC 的兴趣明显较低,与之前熊市的水平类似。
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