2024-25 年比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：特朗普就任总统会将 BTC 推至 30 万美元吗？

截至撰写本文时，比特币 [BTC] 在过去六周强劲上涨后，交易价格接近 10 万美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] price at the time of writing was seen trading in the vicinity of the $100k-mark after having clocked in strong gains over the past six weeks. This impulse move higher began after the U.S presidential elections results were called on 5 November.

比特币 [BTC] 价格在过去六周强劲上涨后，目前交易价格已接近 10 万美元大关。这种冲动性上涨是在 11 月 5 日美国总统选举结果公布后开始的。

With regulatory clarity already benefiting crypto, such as with Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, other crypto assets are set to benefit too. Which ones would be the biggest winners from a Trump presidency?

由于监管的明确性已经使加密货币受益，例如 Ripple 的稳定币 RLUSD，其他加密资产也将受益。哪些人将成为特朗普总统任期内的最大赢家？

Bitcoin strategic reserve for the United States?

美国的比特币战略储备？

On Thursday, President-elect Donald Trump responded to a question regarding a potential Bitcoin reserve. He said to Jim Cramer, “We are gonna do something great with crypto,” speaking from the New York Stock Exchange.

周四，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普回答了有关潜在比特币储备的问题。他在纽约证券交易所对吉姆·克莱默（Jim Cramer）说，“我们将利用加密货币做一些伟大的事情”。

During his previous presidency, Trump had pointed to rising stock prices and asserted that the market was strong and America was becoming great again. In the coming months and years, he might use Bitcoin’s rising prices to make a point, vindicating his election promises related to crypto.

在上一任总统期间，特朗普曾指出股价上涨，并断言市场强劲，美国正在再次变得伟大。在未来的几个月和几年里，他可能会利用比特币价格上涨来表明自己的观点，以证明他与加密货币相关的竞选承诺。

One of them was a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, with legislation introduced in the Texas House of Representatives on 12 December to establish this.

其中之一是国家战略比特币储备，德克萨斯州众议院于 12 月 12 日提出立法来建立这一储备。

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView

来源：TradingView 上的 BTC/USDT

The differences between the previous cycle’s price action and this one’s are many. A 34-week consolidation after making a new high against USD came earlier this year, lasting from March to early November. In 2020, BTC faced resistance at ATH, but blasted past it in under three weeks.

上一个周期的价格走势与本周期的价格走势之间存在很多差异。今年早些时候，美元兑美元创出新高后，出现了为期 34 周的盘整，从 3 月持续到 11 月初。 2020 年，BTC 在 ATH 处遇到阻力，但在不到三周的时间内就突破了该阻力位。

Thereafter, it went on to make close to 400% gains before April 2021. A similar run would take BTC close to $300k in April 2025, but we know that successive cycles take more time and produce less percentage gains.

此后，它在 2021 年 4 月之前继续上涨近 400%。类似的走势将使 BTC 在 2025 年 4 月接近 30 万美元，但我们知道连续的周期需要更多的时间，产生的百分比收益也会更少。

The previous ATH being broken before the BTC halving date arrived has not yet occurred. An eight-month consolidation under those highs in a halving year is also a new phenomenon. This cycle might be driven to the seemingly impossible $280k-$300k levels with President Trump at the helm, heralding each new week’s ATH as his victory.

之前在BTC减半日期到来之前ATH被打破的情况还没有发生。在减半的一年里，在这些高点下方长达八个月的盘整也是一种新现象。在特朗普总统的掌舵下，这一周期可能会被推向看似不可能的 28 万至 30 万美元水平，并预示着新一周的 ATH 就是他的胜利。

D.O.G.E. co-head Musk could drive the memecoin market

DOGE 联席主管马斯克可能会推动模因币市场

Other influential figures or KOLs could help drive other sectors of the market higher. A few weeks ago we saw Murad Mahmudov emerge as a key memecoin KOL, but none might beat the previous cycle’s top Dogecoin shill spot.

其他有影响力的人物或 KOL 可以帮助推动市场其他领域的上涨。几周前，我们看到穆拉德·马哈茂多夫 (Murad Mahmudov) 成为关键的模因币 KOL，但没有人能击败上一周期的狗狗币最高骗子位置。

Elon Musk, owner of X (formerly Twitter) was one of the reasons behind the rise of Dogecoin during the previous cycle. His vast reach and public perception of technological genius meant people put a great deal of faith in his words.

X（前 Twitter）所有者埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）是上一周期狗狗币崛起的原因之一。他的广泛影响力和公众对技术天才的认知意味着人们对他的话充满信心。

When he shared memes related to DOGE or news of Tesla accepting Dogecoin as payment, these updates contributed to DOGE’s rise. And yet, his influence waned as the cycle matured.

当他分享与 DOGE 相关的表情包或特斯拉接受狗狗币作为付款方式的消息时，这些更新促成了 DOGE 的崛起。然而，随着周期的成熟，他的影响力逐渐减弱。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测

As co-lead of the Department of Government Efficiency or D.O.G.E., any official mentions of the department have the capability to lead to Dogecoin pumping.

作为政府效率部（DOGE）的联合领导，任何官方提及该部门的行为都有可能导致狗狗币暴涨。

An example of this was seen in mid-October Four days later, DOGE was up 26%. Although the tweet was not the only reason (Bitcoin was also pumping at that time), it did raise the visibility of the most popular memecoin.

10 月中旬就是一个例子。四天后，DOGE 上涨了 26%。尽管这条推文不是唯一的原因（比特币当时也很火爆），但它确实提高了最受欢迎的模因币的知名度。

Source: DOGE/USDT on TradingView

来源：TradingView 上的 DOGE/USDT

The range formation after the rallies towards the end of the previous cycles was highlighted on the chart, and they had a relatively comparable age. The breakout in early 2024 and retracement was a bit like the February 2021 rally to $0.088. A subsequent 1,400% rally was seen in six weeks too.

图表中突出显示了上一周期结束时的反弹后的区间形成，并且它们的年龄相对可比。 2024 年初的突破和回调有点像 2021 年 2 月上涨至 0.088 美元。随后六周内也出现了 1,400% 的反弹。

While that is unlikely to repeat, a similar performance for Dogecoin in the coming months would take it to $1.334. A respectably bullish target, but possibly too conservative for this run. Musk’s tweets could be a game-changer, as could the capital rotation from BTC to top-performing altcoins towards the end of the cycle.

虽然这种情况不太可能重演，但狗狗币在未来几个月的类似表现将使其达到 1.334 美元。这是一个相当看涨的目标，但对于这次运行来说可能过于保守。马斯克的推文可能会改变游戏规则，就像在周期结束时资本从 BTC 转向表现最好的山寨币一样。