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目前,比特币[BTC]确实已经收复了6.5万美元的阻力位,这是一个积极的信号,但这还不是牛市的完全确认。
output: As Bitcoin [BTC] continues to rally, hitting the $65K resistance, it marks a significant step in the bull market narrative. However, to fully confirm a bull run to $74K, further price action is needed.
产出:随着比特币 [BTC] 继续上涨,触及 6.5 万美元阻力位,这标志着牛市叙事迈出了重要一步。然而,要完全确认牛市将上涨至 74,000 美元,还需要采取进一步的价格行动。
At present, BTC has indeed broken through the $65K resistance, which is a positive sign, but it’s not yet a full confirmation of a bull market.
目前,BTC确实突破了6.5万美元阻力位,这是一个积极的信号,但还没有完全确认牛市。
In past bull markets, levels like this often serve as psychological barriers. Breaking $65K is significant, as it marks the reclaiming of a key historical resistance.
在过去的牛市中,这样的水平常常成为心理障碍。突破 65,000 美元意义重大,因为它标志着关键历史阻力位的收复。
However, simply breaking it isn’t enough. Further steps are required to confirm a bull run to $74K.
然而,仅仅打破它是不够的。需要采取进一步措施来确认牛市升至 74,000 美元。
According to AMBCrypto, to maintain a consistent bull run, Bitcoin must hold above $66K and ideally continue upward or pull back to $61K for a healthy retest.
根据 AMBCrypto 的说法,为了维持持续的牛市,比特币必须保持在 6.6 万美元以上,并且理想情况下继续上涨或回落至 6.1 万美元以进行健康的重新测试。
Source : Coinalyze
来源:Coinalyze
Now, let’s break down the logic behind this price analysis. Historically, whenever a key resistance is tested, it indicates strong buying pressure, often represented by the RSI reaching overbought conditions.
现在,让我们来分解一下价格分析背后的逻辑。从历史上看,每当测试关键阻力位时,都表明强劲的买压,通常表现为 RSI 达到超买状态。
Psychologically, this can make traders cautious. A rapid move to $66K could raise concerns about overextension, increasing the risk of a sharper correction later.
从心理上来说,这会让交易者变得谨慎。快速升至 66,000 美元可能会引发人们对过度扩张的担忧,从而增加随后大幅调整的风险。
For instance, when BTC hit its ATH of $73K in March, the RSI remained above 70 for over a month, signaling an impending pullback, which eventually caused BTC to retrace back to $61K.
例如,当 BTC 在 3 月份触及 7.3 万美元的最高峰值时,RSI 在一个多月内保持在 70 以上,预示着即将回调,最终导致 BTC 回撤至 6.1 万美元。
If this trend holds, it might attract more buyers looking to enter the market at a lower price, making it easier for Bitcoin to push past $70K.
如果这种趋势持续下去,可能会吸引更多希望以较低价格进入市场的买家,从而使比特币更容易突破 7 万美元。
Source : Bitcoin Magazine Pro
资料来源:比特币杂志专业版
Typically, the Z-score entering the green box has led to a bull rally afterward, indicated by the peak testing the red band, which highlights an overheated market.
通常情况下,Z 分数进入绿色方框会导致随后的牛市反弹,如峰值测试红色带所示,这凸显了市场过热。
Therefore, a healthy retracement to $61K can set the stage for more aggressive buying, paving the way for BTC to retest its original ATH.
因此,健康回撤至 6.1 万美元可以为更激进的买盘奠定基础,为 BTC 重新测试其原始 ATH 铺平道路。
The key will be to hold
关键是要坚持
Conversely, instead of pulling back to $61K, Bitcoin jumps directly to $66K. This rapid rise shows strong buying pressure, as investors are eager to enter the market without waiting for a better price.
相反,比特币并没有回落至 6.1 万美元,而是直接跳至 6.6 万美元。这种快速上涨表明了强大的购买压力,因为投资者渴望进入市场而不等待更好的价格。
While it seems unlikely, this can be a bullish signal, showing that there is enough demand to sustain higher prices.
虽然这似乎不太可能,但这可能是一个看涨信号,表明有足够的需求来维持更高的价格。
Therefore, to maintain a bull market, Bitcoin must hold above $66K and ideally continue upwards.
因此,为了维持牛市,比特币必须保持在 6.6 万美元以上,并且最好继续上涨。
In the past three days, as Bitcoin tested the $65K resistance, many long positions entered, expecting bulls to hold the level.
过去三天,随着比特币测试 6.5 万美元阻力位,许多多头建仓,预计多头将守住该水平。
Source : HyblockCapital
资料来源:HyblockCapital
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测
However, with short sellers resurfacing, long liquidation could trigger a retracement to $61K, reinforcing AMBCrypto’s hypothesis. Overall, the bull rally past $70K hinges on bulls holding the $66K resistance.
然而,随着卖空者重新出现,多头清算可能会引发价格回撤至 61,000 美元,从而强化了 AMBCrypto 的假设。总体而言,牛市能否突破 7 万美元取决于多头守住 6.6 万美元阻力位。
Otherwise, a retracement to $61K is essential for confirming support, reducing volatility, attracting buyers, and setting up for a sustained bull run to $74K.
否则,回调至 61,000 美元对于确认支撑、减少波动性、吸引买家以及为持续牛市至 74,000 美元做好准备至关重要。
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