比特币（BTC）价格预测：牛市会回归吗？

自 3 月份达到 73,000 美元以上的峰值以来，比特币 [BTC] 一直处于看跌状态。截至发稿时，该资产的交易价格为 64,020 美元，较 3 月份的历史高点 (ATH) 上涨 13.2%，较过去一周上涨约 4.4%。

Prominent crypto analyst Willy Woo has shared his latest insights on Bitcoin’s potential future valuation.

著名加密货币分析师 Willy Woo 分享了他对比特币未来潜在估值的最新见解。

According to Woo, the minimum potential valuation for Bitcoin could be around $700,000, while the maximum might reach as high as $24 million per BTC.

Woo 表示，比特币的最低潜在估值可能约为 70 万美元，而最高可能达到每枚 2400 万美元。

However, he clarified that reaching the upper estimate would require an improbable scenario where all global wealth is invested in Bitcoin.

不过，他澄清说，要达到上限估计需要一个不太可能的情况，即全球所有财富都投资于比特币。

Continuing his analysis, Woo touched upon realistic expectations for institutional investors’ involvement in Bitcoin.

吴继续进行分析，谈到了对机构投资者参与比特币的现实期望。

He referenced Fidelity’s recommendation for portfolios to include 1-3% in Bitcoin, contrasting it with BlackRock’s much higher investment of 85% in some cases.

他提到富达投资建议投资组合中包含 1-3% 的比特币，与贝莱德在某些情况下投资 85% 的高得多的建议形成鲜明对比。

Woo leaned towards a 3% allocation as a more sensible figure, which could still drive Bitcoin’s price to the $700,000 mark if broadly adopted.

Woo 倾向于 3% 的配置作为更明智的数字，如果广泛采用，这仍可能推动比特币价格升至 70 万美元大关。

Further elaborating on his predictions, Woo discussed the adoption S-curve, noting that Bitcoin’s global adoption was 4.7% at press time.

Woo 进一步阐述了他的预测，讨论了采用 S 曲线，并指出截至发稿时比特币的全球采用率为 4.7%。

He predicted that as adoption increases to between 16% and 50%, Bitcoin’s price could escalate to the levels he outlined, driven by increasing mainstream acceptance and investment.

他预测，随着主流接受度和投资的增加，比特币的采用率将上升至 16% 至 50%，比特币的价格可能会升至他概述的水平。

However, the current market tells a different story.

然而，当前的市场却讲述了一个不同的故事。

Recent fluctuations have seen a significant number of trader liquidations, with Bitcoin accounting for approximately $72.99 million of the total $255.67 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours, per Coinglass data.

根据 Coinglass 的数据，最近的波动导致大量交易者清算，在过去 24 小时内 2.5567 亿美元的清算总额中，比特币约占 7299 万美元。

The majority of these were long positions, suggesting a tumultuous period for investors betting on immediate gains.

其中大部分是多头头寸，这表明押注眼前收益的投资者正处于一段动荡时期。

Crypto analyst RektCapital weighed in on the recent market dip, suggesting that the current retrace might be shorter than previous ones. He explained,

加密货币分析师 RektCapital 对最近的市场下跌发表了看法，认为当前的回撤可能比之前的回撤要短。他解释说，

“The initial retrace inside the pattern took 5 weeks to bottom. The one after that took 4 weeks. This current one could take only 2–3 weeks to bottom.”

“该模式内的最初回调花了 5 周时间才见底。之后的一件事花了4个星期。目前的情况可能只需要 2-3 周就能见底。”

Adding to the discussion, data from CryptoQuant showed that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio— used to assess profit or loss by comparing market value against realized value—was 2.1 at press time.

CryptoQuant 的数据显示，截至发稿时，比特币的市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 比率（用于通过比较市场价值与已实现价值来评估利润或损失）为 2.1。

An MVRV ratio greater than 1 suggested that Bitcoin was overvalued compared to its realized price, hinting that investors are holding coins at a profit, which could influence their selling decisions and affect market stability.

MVRV 比率大于 1 表明比特币相对于其实现价格被高估，暗示投资者持有比特币是为了获利，这可能会影响他们的出售决策并影响市场稳定。