分析师预测，比特币（BTC）下跌至90,000美元以下

本周比特币（BTC）下跌90,00美元，分析师预测，随着对冲基金放松其策略，分析师将进一步下降至70,00美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price slipped below $90,000 on Friday, increasing the potential for another drop to the $70,000 level as analysts predict.

正如分析师预测的那样，比特币（BTC）的价格在周五下跌了90,000美元以下，将另一笔跌至70,000美元的潜力提高到了70,000美元。

This decline follows massive outflows from spot ETFs and hedge funds winding down their strategies, which had been profiting from the arbitrage between ETFs and futures.

这种下降遵循现货ETF的大量流出和对冲基金结束其策略，这些策略已从ETF和Futures之间的套利中获利。

After hitting a high of over $109,000 in January, Bitcoin has lost around 20% in a broad downturn that has also affected major altcoins.

在一月份达到超过109,000美元的高价之后，比特币在巨大的低迷中损失了约20％，这也影响了主要的山寨币。

On February 25 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of over $1 billion, setting a record for the largest single-day outflows since their launch in January 2024.

仅在2月25日，现货比特币ETF就看到了超过10亿美元的流出，创造了自2024年1月推出以来最大的单日外流的记录。

These outflows come as hedge funds are winding down a strategy that involved going long on ETFs and shorting CME futures, aiming for yields higher than Treasury rates.

这些流出是随着对冲基金的结束，涉及长期以来的ETF和缩短CME期货的策略，其目标的收益率高于国库利率。

However, as Bitcoin price drops and this “basis spread” narrows, these funds are forced to sell ETF shares and buy back futures contracts, Ben Armstrong, host of the crypto YouTube channel "Armstrong and Friends," explained in a recent analysis.

但是，随着比特币的价格下跌和“基础差”缩小，这些资金被迫出售ETF股票并回购期货合约，Ben Armstrong是Crypto YouTube频道“ Armstrong and Friends”的主持人Ben Armstrong。

"They've been able to earn a 7% yield going long on the ETF and short the futures, but as the futures price drops and the ETF price drops, the hedge funds will need to sell their ETF shares and buy back the futures contracts."

“他们已经能够在ETF上赚取7％的收益率，而短缺期货，但是随着期货价格下跌和ETF的价格下跌，对冲基金将需要出售其ETF股票并回购期货合约。”

This activity will exert additional downward pressure on Bitcoin price, potentially opening up the possibility of a move to the $70,000 level, which is a key Fibonacci support.

这项活动将对比特币价格施加额外的向下压力，有可能使迁移到70,000美元的可能性开放，这是斐波那契的关键支持。

"Bitcoin goblin town incoming... $70,000 I see you mofo!" warned BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes on social media.

“比特币哥布林镇接入……$ 70,000，我看到你Mofo！”在社交媒体上警告Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes。

"As this 'basis spread' narrows, HF [hedge fund] selling pressure will increase, and they will quickly sell their BTC holdings in a vicious cycle of lower prices and higher borrowing costs."

“随着'基础传播'的变化，HF [对冲基金]销售压力将增加，他们将在价格较低的价格和更高的借贷成本的恶性循环中迅速出售其BTC持股。”

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick advises against buying this dip yet.

标准特许分析师杰夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）建议不要购买此蘸酱。

"DO NOT buy the BTC dip yet, a move to the low 80s is on the cards as we expect more outflows from ETFs to come as the hedge funds close out their trades and the futures basis continues to narrow," stated the analyst.

分析师说：“请务必购买BTC倾角，因为对冲基金结束了他们的交易，而期货基础却继续缩小，我们期望ETF的流出会有更多的流失，这是在卡片上的搬迁。”

Chart patterns also support a bearish outlook, with 10X Research identifying a "diamond top" pattern in Bitcoin's chart, which is often associated with trend reversals.

图表模式还支持看跌的前景，10倍研究确定了比特币图中的“钻石顶部”模式，该图表通常与趋势逆转有关。

Their report identifies $73,000 as a key target, aligning with previous support levels and the lower boundary of the diamond pattern.

他们的报告将$ 73,000确定为关键目标，与先前的支持水平和钻石模式的下边界保持一致。

"The technical indicators suggest that a move towards $73,000 is likely, setting the stage for an interesting showdown between the bulls and bears in the weeks ahead."

“技术指标表明，可能会向73,000美元迈进，为公牛和熊队在未来几周之间进行有趣的摊牌奠定了基础。”

Besides ETF dynamics, several factors are fueling the downturn, including the Bybit exchange suffering a massive $1.5 billion hack last week, eroding investor confidence.

除了ETF动力学外，几个因素正在助长衰退，包括上周遭受15亿美元黑客攻击的Bybit Exchange，削弱了投资者的信心。

"The Bybit hack will exert additional downward pressure on price, and the announcement of new tariffs by President Trump on Mexico and Canada sparks inflation concerns, dampening the outlook for risk assets in general," said Chris Newhouse, a researcher at Cumberland Labs.

坎伯兰郡实验室的研究人员克里斯·纽豪斯（Chris Newhouse）表示：“ Bybit Hack将对价格施加额外的下行压力，特朗普总统对墨西哥和加拿大的新关税引发了通货膨胀的关注，从而削弱了风险资产的前景。”

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation report comes out Friday, which could influence interest rates and, in turn, affect cryptocurrency markets.

美联储的首选通货膨胀报告周五发布，这可能会影响利率，进而影响加密货币市场。

Cryptocurrency markets are also facing additional strain as the "memecoin boom" appears to be coming to an end.

由于“ Memecoin Boom”似乎即将结束，加密货币市场也正面临额外的压力。

Popular tokens, including LIBRA, are being associated with a scandal involving Argentina's president, and Melania Trump's namesake token has seen a decline of over 20% this week.

包括天秤座在内的流行代币与涉及阿根廷总统的丑闻有关，梅拉尼亚·特朗普的同名令牌本周的下降超过20％。

This signals that the memecoin frenzy might be winding down, which could reduce the speculative demand that had been pushing some altcoins to new highs earlier this year.

这表明Memecoin Frenzy可能正在结束，这可能会减少今年早些时候将一些Altcoins推向新高点的投机需求。

In other news, trading data from Deribit shows that investors are preparing for the possibility of even lower prices in the coming weeks.

在其他新闻中，来自deribit的交易数据表明，投资者正在准备在接下来的几周内降低价格的可能性。

Many investors are buying options that will pay out if Bitcoin drops to the $70,000 level by the March series expiry.

许多投资者正在购买期权，如果比特币在3月系列到期时将比特币降至70,000美元。

This suggests that some market participants are anticipating a continuation of the recent sell-off, with a potential for a significant drop to the $70,000 level being priced in.

这表明，一些市场参与者预计最近抛售会继续，可能会大幅下降至70,000美元的价格。

At this price point, strong support from previous lows and the Fibonacci retracement level could encourage buyers to step back in, potentially setting the stage for a rebound. However, only time will tell if this anticipation is accurate.

在这个价格点上，以前的低点和斐波那契回溯水平的大力支持可以鼓励买家介入，有可能为反弹奠定基础。但是，只有时间才能确定此期望是否准确。

Market watchers will be focusing on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve decisions in March, which could signal a turning point for cryptocurrency markets.

市场观察者将重点关注即将到来的经济数据和美联储的决策，这可能标志着加密货币市场的转折点。

For now, the "Trump bump" that propelled Bitcoin to record highs appears to be fading as economic reality sets in, and traders are adjusting their positions accordingly.

就目前而言，随着经济现实的发展，推动比特币记录高点的“特朗普碰碰”似乎正在逐渐消失，而交易者正在相应地调整其立场。