比特币 (BTC) 月度市场回顾 – 2023 年 7 月

在联邦公开市场委员会做出利率决定后，比特币 [BTC] 的交易价格在 7 月最后一天几乎没有变化。

Bitcoin [BTC] closed July relatively flat in the immediate aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision.

在联邦公开市场委员会做出利率决定后，比特币 7 月收盘相对持平。

Meeting market expectations, Fed policymakers maintained the benchmark federal funds rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range. Now that June’s FOMC meeting is in the past, traders are looking ahead to the first rate cut of the year, which could come as early as September.

符合市场预期，美联储政策制定者将基准联邦基金利率维持在5.25%-5.50%的区间。现在 6 月份的 FOMC 会议已经过去，交易员正在期待今年的首次降息，最早可能在 9 月份举行。

In his remarks following the FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that there are ongoing discussions about a September rate cut, the possibility of which hinges on strong economic growth figures.

美联储主席鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会会议后的讲话中提到，9月份降息的讨论正在进行中，降息的可能性取决于强劲的经济增长数据。

An interest rate cut outcome would likely boost liquidity in the market, which in turn tends to be favorable for cryptocurrencies.

降息结果可能会增加市场的流动性，这反过来又对加密货币有利。

July trendsA minor crypto pullback ahead of the monthly close erased some of Bitcoin’s gains, with Coinglass showing that the flagship crypto managed only 2.95% returns throughout July.

7 月趋势 加密货币在月度收盘前的小幅回调抹去了比特币的部分涨幅，Coinglass 显示，旗舰加密货币在整个 7 月份的回报率仅为 2.95%。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

The meager positive returns nevertheless set the stage for Bitcoin to pursue new yearly price highs.

尽管如此，微薄的正回报为比特币追求年度价格新高奠定了基础。

In contrast, Ethereum [ETH] fared worse, losing 5.88% in the same period despite positive influences, such as the launch of US-based spot Ether ETFs.

相比之下，以太坊 [ETH] 的表现更糟，尽管受到诸如美国现货以太 ETF 推出等积极影响，但同期仍下跌 5.88%。

As a result, the ETH/BTC ratio fell throughout July, decreasing by 10.72% by the end of the month.

结果，ETH/BTC 比率整个 7 月份都在下降，到月底下降了 10.72%。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

Among the large-cap altcoins, MANTRA [OM] and Helium [HNT] emerged as the best performers in July, generating returns of 44% and 36%, respectively, over the course of the month.

在大盘山寨币中，MANTRA [OM] 和 Helium [HNT] 成为 7 月份表现最好的货币，当月回报率分别为 44% 和 36%。

On the other hand, Fantom [FTM], Flare [FLR], and Starknet [STRK] all lost more than 30%.

另一方面，Fantom [FTM]、Flare [FLR] 和 Starknet [STRK] 均下跌超过 30%。

August expectationsA bargaining-hunting theme persisted last month as addresses with a balance of at least 0.1% of BTC’s circulating supply added around 84,000 BTC to their stashes, according to IntoTheBlock’s Bitcoin ownership data.

八月预期 根据 IntoTheBlock 的比特币所有权数据，上个月讨价还价主题持续存在，因为 BTC 流通供应量余额至少 0.1% 的地址增加了约 84,000 BTC 的存储。

This scoop marked the highest accumulation pace since October 2014.

这一独家新闻标志着自 2014 年 10 月以来的最高增持速度。

Separately, IntoTheBlock reported in an X (formerly Twitter) post that daily new addresses were up by 35% on the 30th of July since touching multi-year lows in early June.

另外，IntoTheBlock 在 X（前 Twitter）帖子中报道称，自 6 月初触及多年低点以来，7 月 30 日每日新地址增加了 35%。

Source: IntoTheBlock

来源：IntoTheBlock

Historically, strong accumulation by whale and shark investors has hinted at anticipation of a breakout to the upside from the current ranges.

从历史上看，鲸鱼和鲨鱼投资者的强劲积累暗示了对从当前区间向上突破的预期。

Renewed inflows of capital into the crypto market further supported the bullish sentiment.

资本重新流入加密货币市场进一步支撑了看涨情绪。

CCData noted in its latest Stablecoins & CBDCs report that the total market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 2.11% in July, reaching $164 billion — its highest level since April 2022.

CCData 在最新的稳定币和 CBDC 报告中指出，7 月份稳定币总市值增长 2.11%，达到 1640 亿美元，这是自 2022 年 4 月以来的最高水平。

Technical outlookBitcoin has been trading within the bounded ranges of $58,000 and $70,000 for five months.

技术展望五个月以来，比特币一直在 58,000 美元和 70,000 美元的有限区间内交易。

Bullish traders aimed to flip the prevailing resistance at $69,600, as it will bring into view $72,000, which presented the next significant barrier to challenging March’s all-time high.

看涨交易者的目标是扭转当前阻力位 69,600 美元，因为它将进入 72,000 美元，这是挑战 3 月份历史高点的下一个重大障碍。

Thus far, bears have fiercely defended the upper boundaries of the prevailing consolidation range, successfully stymieing attempts to crack the $70,000 mark.

到目前为止，空头一直在激烈捍卫当前盘整区间的上限，成功阻止了突破 70,000 美元大关的尝试。

Multiple rejections above $69,600 since March indicated that BTC price needs a strong catalyst to overcome the hurdle.

自3月份以来多次拒绝突破69,600美元，表明BTC价格需要强有力的催化剂来克服障碍。