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自9月7日比特币触及53,900美元以来,一直处于持续上涨模式,最终两次尝试突破65,000美元阻力位
Bitcoin finally reached $65,000 after a long wait, but it does not look like BTC can sustain at this point. Since September 7 after bitcoin reached $53,900, it has been continuously rising and finally in two attempts breached the resistance at $65k. Let us explore the reasons why we believe bitcoin can retrace back to $64000 or even lower to $63,200.
经过漫长的等待,比特币终于达到了 65,000 美元,但目前来看 BTC 似乎无法维持下去。自9月7日比特币触及53,900美元以来,它一直在不断上涨,最终两次尝试突破65,000美元的阻力位。让我们探讨一下为什么我们相信比特币可以回撤至 64000 美元,甚至更低至 63,200 美元。
Chart Analysis
图表分析
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,660 which is above the resistance zone of $65,520. The four hourly chart shows that before finally breaching this section bitcoin had multiple failed attempts. Usually in such a case Bitcoin fails to cross and falls back to reclaim a support zone. This happens because the buyers get exhausted which gives a clean chance to the sellers to drag down the market. However in this case, it looks like more buyers were present during this time and that helped the crypto to rise.
截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格为 65,660 美元,高于 65,520 美元的阻力区。四小时图显示,在最终突破该区域之前,比特币曾多次失败的尝试。通常在这种情况下,比特币无法穿越并回落以收回支撑区域。发生这种情况是因为买家精疲力竭,这给卖家提供了拖累市场的绝佳机会。然而,在这种情况下,看起来这段时间有更多的买家出现,这有助于加密货币的上涨。
In this case, the possibility of Bitcoin claiming a support above $65,500 looks thin as RSI is about at the border of overbuying. RSI stands at 70 points and this can cause BTC to come down. Before retracing its steps, there are chances of bitcoin touching $67,000 but might fail to claim a support. On the other hand, if bulls want the market to open in a positive area, they must close the price above the sixty five thousand dollar zone.
在这种情况下,比特币获得 65,500 美元上方支撑的可能性看起来很小,因为 RSI 大约处于超买边缘。 RSI 处于 70 点,这可能会导致 BTC 下跌。在回调之前,比特币有可能触及 67,000 美元,但可能无法获得支撑。另一方面,如果多头希望市场在积极区域开盘,他们必须将价格收于六万五千美元区域之上。
The Negative Chart Pattern
负面图表模式
On an hourly chart, if we see the current tip of this chart (marked on picture above), we can see the formation of a shooting star. This is a bearish pattern and is powerful when it appears at the top of a trend. If we take September 7 as the bottom of this trend, the current zone can be considered as the top. The appearance of the shooting star candle pattern along with the negative confirmation candle gives out the vibe of bitcoin rejection from this zone. There is a chance that bitcoin nullifies this pattern if the buying power stays strong.
在每小时图表上,如果我们看到该图表的当前尖端(如上图所示),我们可以看到流星的形成。这是一种看跌形态,当它出现在趋势顶部时非常强大。如果我们以9月7日为这一趋势的底部,则当前区域可以被视为顶部。流星蜡烛图和负面确认蜡烛图的出现,散发出该区域拒绝比特币的氛围。如果购买力保持强劲,比特币就有可能消除这种模式。
Market Psychology
市场心理学
As today is the last day before the weekend, it is very crucial for the buyers to close the daily candle above $65,000. The bearish month of September is going to close on a Monday and the market should not enter a bullish month with a negative sentiment. Everybody is expecting the bull run to continue and for that Bitcoin must move to create an All Time High.
由于今天是周末前的最后一天,因此对于买家而言,将每日蜡烛线收于 65,000 美元以上至关重要。 9月的看跌月将在周一结束,市场不应带着负面情绪进入看涨月。每个人都期望牛市继续下去,因此比特币必须创造历史新高。
Liquidation Data
强平数据
In the last 24 hours, over 72,000 traders have been liquidated. The most crucial time frame is the last 12 hours. During this period maximum short traders were liquidated as bitcoin kept rising with slight corrections. In the last 4 hours, a total of $26.71 millions worth of traders were liquidated. As the market keeps on rising, traders with shorts open will keep getting liquidation in the absence of stop-loss.
过去 24 小时内,已有超过 72,000 名交易者被清算。最关键的时间范围是最后12小时。在此期间,随着比特币持续上涨并略有调整,最大的空头交易者被清算。过去4小时内,共有价值2671万美元的交易者被清算。随着市场不断上涨,空头交易者在没有止损的情况下将不断被平仓。
What to Expect?
期待什么?
Long traders and investors are no doubt expecting the market to keep rising however that is not possible in any scenario. Traders must keep in mind that they are against the market and hence getting over confidence in such critical areas might cost them their funds. In case Bitcon fails to register the support above $65,500 there are chances it comes down to 64,000. This zone can provide support from the trendline as well as from moving average 20. Also the presence of shooting star patterns might give some trouble. If the buying powers keep coming bitcoin only has to justify one support on 4 hourly chart and confirm it. It would be very interesting to see if bulls would be able to hold the price above $63,000 or will it fall back to $64,000.
多头交易者和投资者无疑期望市场继续上涨,但这在任何情况下都是不可能的。交易者必须记住,他们是反对市场的,因此对这些关键领域的过度信心可能会导致他们损失资金。如果 Bitcon 未能达到 65,500 美元以上的支撑位,则有可能跌至 64,000 美元。该区域可以提供来自趋势线以及移动平均线 20 的支撑。此外,流星形态的存在可能会带来一些麻烦。如果购买力持续增加,比特币只需在 4 小时图上证明一个支撑位并予以确认即可。看看多头能否将价格维持在 63,000 美元以上,还是回落至 64,000 美元,这将是非常有趣的事情。
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