比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）将在2月最糟糕的几年中，尽管分析师认为牛市还没有结束

比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）将结束一个艰难的月份，BTC下降了7.8％，至86774.59美元，ETH下跌9.47％至2403美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are setting up for their worst February in years, with both cryptocurrencies heading for a rough month. As of early Friday morning, BTC dropped over 7.8% to $86,774.59 and ETH plunged 9.47% to $2,403.

比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）正在为他们多年来最糟糕的2月份设置，这两种加密货币都持续了一个艰难的月份。截至周五凌晨，BTC下降了7.8％以上，至86,774.59美元，ETH下跌了9.47％至2,403美元。

Should both close the month at current levels, it would be their worst February since 2017 and 2021, respectively. However, despite the downturn, voices in the crypto space aren't panicking. Many still see a long-term bull market in the making, though they're adjusting their expectations as the crypto cycles evolve.

如果两者都以当前水平结束，那将是他们自2017年和2021年以来最糟糕的2月。然而，尽管经济低迷，加密货币空间中的声音并不恐慌。尽管加密周期的发展，许多人仍在制作中看到长期的牛市。

Changing landscape of altcoins

改变山寨币的景观

Pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi believes the days of explosive altcoin rallies, like in 2017 and 2021, may be gone for good. "I think for alts, we will never see a run like 2017 / 2021 again. But I also said that previous to this run, I thought we'd never see a decent alt season again after 2017 (most alts still down 90% from ATH).")

化名加密交易员Pentoshi认为，像2017年和2021年一样，爆炸性的Altcoin集会的日子可能永远消失。 “我认为对于Alts，我们再也看不到2017 /2021这样的跑步了。但是我还说，在此之前，我认为我们在2017年之后再也看不到一个体面的Alt赛季（大多数Alts仍然比ATH下降了90％）。”）。”

"Now, pnde in 2021 went to 64k% gain (from 0.0001 to 0.064) and we saw triple digit gains on many alts. The space is just way too big now, with hundreds of millions of people where as there we really did start at 0 for defi and in 2017 all alts combined were 13B. We just started at such a high floor," the trader wrote on X, discussing the vast difference in starting capital.

“现在，2021年的PNDE增长了64,000％（从0.0001到0.064），我们看到了许多替代品的三位数增长。现在的空间太大了，数以千计的人确实在Defi开始时确实从0开始，而在2017年开始，所有的alts又在2017年开始了13B。

"I also believe the next bubble won't even be in crypto, it’s likely going to be in Robotics/AI. 50% of the global GDP is labor, a 50T annual market as Kang pointed out. People get paid to use their time, but robots don't need to be paid to work 24/7."

“我也相信下一个泡沫甚至不会进入加密货币，它很可能会使用机器人/AI。全球GDP的50％是劳动力，正如康指出的那样，这是50吨的年度市场。人们得到了薪水来利用自己的时间，但是机器人不需要为24/7/7/7的工资付费。”

While Pentoshi still sees opportunities in crypto, the trader emphasizes that the market is maturing and unrealistic expectations need to be adjusted.

尽管Pentoshi仍然看到加密货币的机会，但交易者强调市场正在成熟，需要调整不切实际的期望。

"My final takeaway is that I’m not surprised people are getting bored of crypto after 18 months of sideways action. But I also think that people have lost perspective on how good things still are in crypto. Relative to other markets, crypto has performed exceptionally well during a time of macroeconomic hardship. We’re still very early in the grand scheme of things. Expecting 1000% gains on new coins every year is not realistic, and neither is expecting a rapid return to the ATHs we saw in 2021. As the market matures, we should expect smaller gains and a more gradual upward trend."

“我的最后收获是，在经过18个月的横向行动之后，人们对加密货币感到无聊。但是我也认为人们对加密货币的好处仍然失去了看法。相对于其他市场，加密货币在宏观经济上的艰辛中表现出色。我们在2021年看到的ATHS。随着市场的成熟，我们应该期望较小的收益和更逐渐的上升趋势。”

New bull market

新的牛市

Bitcoin's halving events have historically driven massive bull runs, but this time, things may be different. Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), sees a shift in how the market reacts.

比特币的减半活动历史上驱动了大规模的公牛跑步，但这一次，情况可能有所不同。 Riot Platforms（NASDAQ：RIOT）研究副总裁Pierre Rochard看到市场反应的转变。

"Historically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoin’s new supply and sparked parabolic price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market. This, coupled with changes in U.S. policy and increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a different kind of bitcoin bull market," Rochard said.

"Historically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoin's new supply and sparked parabolic price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market. This, coupled with changes in US policy and increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a different kind of bitcoin bull market," Rochard said.

Instead of a rapid price surge, he expects a slower, more stable climb, “align[ing] with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past.”

他预计价格较慢，稳定的攀登不是快速的价格上涨，“与潜在的需求保持一致，而不是过去的急剧和崩溃。”

Rochard also notes that changes in U.S. policy under President Donald Trump could provide a more favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin.

罗沙德还指出，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统领导下的美国政策的变化可以为比特币提供更有利的监管环境。

"President Trump’s historic return to the White House is ushering in a new regulatory era for bitcoin, reversing the strict capital controls and compliance burdens previously placed on banks. This move opens up opportunities for institutions to engage more easily with bitcoin.”

“特朗普总统的历史回归白宫正在为比特币的新监管时代带来了迎接，扭转了以前放在银行上的严格资本控制和合规负担。此举为机构提供了更轻松地与比特币参与的机构的机会。”

This, coupled with increasing institutional interest, is helping solidify Bitcoin’s position in the traditional financial system, Rochard explains.

Rochard解释说，这与越来越多的机构利益相结合，正在帮助巩固比特币在传统金融体系中的地位。

"From ETFs that wrap bitcoin exposure into a digestible format to large companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) that hold substantial reserves in BTC with intelligent leverage, the financial industry is recognizing bitcoin’s potential as an alternative asset. This, in turn, is driving further institutional capital into the space."

“从将比特币暴露在可消化格式中的ETF到像MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）这样的大型公司，这些公司拥有智能杠杆的BTC储备金，财务产业正在承认比特币的潜力是替代资产。这反过来又推动了进一步的机构资本进入该空间。”

That said, Rochard acknowledges the risks, stating that “over-leveraged traders will continue to spark sudden liquidations, while macroeconomic events and pauses in demand inevitably cause periods of sideways price action and corrections within the bull run.”

话虽如此，罗沙德承认这些风险，并指出：“过度杠杆的交易者将继续引发突然的清算，而宏观经济事件和需求的停顿不可避免地会导致侧向价格行动和公牛运行中的更正。”

Even so, he remains bullish in the long term, suggesting that “the long-term strategy for bitcoin remains ongoing accumulation. As institutions and individuals continue to allocate capital to bitcoin, we can

即便如此，他长期仍然看好他，这表明“比特币的长期战略仍在持续积累。随着机构和个人继续将资本分配给比特币，我们可以