比特币（BTC）进入周期的第三阶段：这意味着什么？

根据 SMA 乘数图表，第一种加密货币比特币 (BTC) 刚刚重新进入其价格周期的“橙色”阶段。

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading closer than ever to the coveted $100,000 price level. While some are convinced that the markets are already overheated, researchers at CryptoQuant are explaining why the peak might be much further away. Here's why the situation might be mirroring the cautious optimism of Q2 2020.

比特币（BTC）是市值领先的加密货币，其交易价格比以往任何时候都更接近令人垂涎的 10 万美元价格水平。尽管有些人确信市场已经过热，但 CryptoQuant 的研究人员正在解释为什么峰值可能还很遥远。这就是为什么这种情况可能反映出 2020 年第二季度的谨慎乐观情绪。

Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Third Phase of Cycle: What Does This Mean?

比特币（BTC）进入周期的第三阶段：这意味着什么？

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency by creation, has just entered the "orange" phase of its price cycle again, according to the SMA Multiplier chart.

根据 SMA 乘数图表，比特币（BTC）是第一个诞生的加密货币，刚刚再次进入其价格周期的“橙色”阶段。

With this, BTC has now moved into the third stage of its rally out of the eight stages registered in previous years, as pointed out by Axel Adler, a community expert at CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 社区专家阿克塞尔·阿德勒 (Axel Adler) 指出，至此，比特币涨势已进入前几年的八个阶段中的第三个阶段。

The orange dot has arrived.

橙色点已到达。

Red, purple, blue, navy, and black - is coming. pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE

红色、紫色、蓝色、海军蓝和黑色即将到来。 pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE

The model, as explained by the speaker, takes the four-year (1,458-day) simple moving average of daily BTC prices and calculates the ratio between the current price and SMA1458, which is then called the SMA Multiplier.

正如演讲者所解释的，该模型采用每日 BTC 价格的四年（1,458 天）简单移动平均线，并计算当前价格与 SMA1458 之间的比率，即所谓的 SMA 乘数。

To visualize how "early we are still," the model then maps each multiplier to a different color range: Green (<1.5), Yellow (1.5-2), Orange (2-2.5), and more. In each cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) moves through the green, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, navy, and black "zones."

为了可视化“我们还很早”，模型随后将每个乘数映射到不同的颜色范围：绿色 (<1.5)、黄色 (1.5-2)、橙色 (2-2.5) 等。在每个周期中，比特币（BTC）都会穿过绿色、黄色、橙色、红色、紫色、蓝色、海军蓝和黑色“区域”。

At current sub-$100,000 prices, Bitcoin (BTC) is seen to be in the "orange zone" on the logarithmic scale.

按照目前低于 10 万美元的价格，比特币 (BTC) 被视为处于对数尺度的“橙色区域”。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju confirms that the model is valid for the ongoing cycle, which is net bullish for Bitcoiners.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 确认该模型对于当前周期有效，这对比特币持有者来说是净利好。

Bitcoin cyclical top still has a long way to go.

比特币周期性顶部仍有很长的路要走。

This rhymes with late Q3 2019 and Q2 2020 when Bitcoin was trying to conquer the 10K level.

这与 2019 年第三季度末和 2020 年第二季度比特币试图突破 10K 水平的情况相符。

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Discovery Patterns Hint At Seven-Digit Levels

比特币（BTC）价格发现模式暗示七位数水平

On the "descending" pattern, Bitcoin (BTC) entered similar zones just before the crash of the Terra/Luna ecosystem in May 2022.

在“下降”模式中，比特币 (BTC) 在 2022 年 5 月 Terra/Luna 生态系统崩溃之前进入了类似区域。

Yesterday, Nov. 22, Bitcoin (BTC) hit another all-time high over $99,600 on major spot exchanges, as reported by CoinGecko.

据 CoinGecko 报道，昨天，即 11 月 22 日，比特币 (BTC) 在主要现货交易所创下了 99,600 美元以上的历史新高。

Recently, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared two "parabolic" scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) price discovery in this run.

最近，CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 分享了本轮比特币 (BTC) 价格发现的两个“抛物线”场景。

#Bitcoin parabolic bull scenario during price discovery https://t.co/ARK79Kz2ti pic.twitter.com/VPi0mFZXmz

#价格发现期间的比特币抛物线牛市情景 https://t.co/ARK79Kz2ti pic.twitter.com/VPi0mFZXmz

If the run were to follow the 2017 pattern, it would put $1.15 million as the target price for Bitcoin (BTC). A more conservative 2020 pattern hints at $262,000 as the maximum.

如果这次运行遵循 2017 年的模式，比特币 (BTC) 的目标价格将是 115 万美元。更保守的 2020 年模式暗示最高限额为 262,000 美元。