日圓升值與過去的金融危機相呼應

上週一，由於日圓套利交易的平倉擾亂了市場，全球股市和數位資產遭受了大幅拋售。

Global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff on Monday as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets.

由於日圓套利交易的平倉擾亂了市場，全球股市和數位資產週一遭遇大幅拋售。

The S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years. The Tokyo Stock Price Index, or TOPIX, fell 20% in its biggest three-day wipeout ever. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index tumbled as much as 17.5%.

衡量全球 14,000 多隻股票表現的標準普爾全球 (NYSE:SPGI) 大盤指數 (BMI) 下跌 3.3%，這是兩年多來最糟糕的交易日。東京股價指數 (TOPIX) 下跌 20%，創下有史以來最大的三日跌幅。同時，彭博銀河加密貨幣指數暴跌 17.5%。

Carry trades, for those less familiar, involve borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency—like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc—and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This strategy has been immensely profitable, given the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) longstanding zero-rate policy.

對於不太熟悉的人來說，套利交易涉及以低利率貨幣（如日圓或瑞士法郎）借款，並將收益投資於其他地方的高收益資產。鑑於日本央行（BOJ）長期實施的零利率政策，這項策略帶來了巨大的利潤。

However, the recent rate hike by the BOJ has thrown a wrench into these trades, leading to a rapid appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar. As many of you are aware, a strong local currency can put pressure on that country’s stock market because exported goods become less competitive.

然而，日本央行最近的升息對這些交易造成了影響，導致日圓兌美元迅速升值。正如你們許多人所知，強勢的當地貨幣可能會給該國的股市帶來壓力，因為出口商品的競爭力下降。

The yen’s appreciation mirrored past episodes, such as the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund collapse and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, where the yen appreciated 20% from its low. As of early August, the yen had already appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar.

日圓升值反映了過去的經歷，例如1998年長期資本管理公司(LTCM)對沖基金崩盤和2007年次貸危機，當時日圓從低點升值了20%。截至8月初，日圓兌美元已升值超過10%。

Following the selloff, the BOJ walked back its hawkish stance, with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida pledging to refrain from further rate hikes amid market instability. This should provide some relief in the near term, but the broader implications of the yen’s rebound and the carry trade unwind will likely continue to influence markets.

拋售之後，日本央行收回了強硬立場，副行長內田信一承諾在市場不穩定的情況下不會進一步升息。這應該會在短期內帶來一些緩解，但日圓反彈和套利交易放鬆的更廣泛影響可能會繼續影響市場。

Given these developments, I urge caution. History suggests that the unwinding is not yet complete. In a report dated August 9, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) says it believes the unwind is about halfway done. What’s more, financial markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could further exacerbate the carry trade unwind. In such a scenario, it’s prudent to remain cautious about “buying the dip.”

鑑於這些事態發展，我敦促謹慎行事。歷史表明，放鬆尚未完成。摩根大通（NYSE：JPM）在 8 月 9 日的報告中表示，它認為放鬆已經完成一半。更重要的是，金融市場正在消化聯準會今年多次降息的影響，這可能會進一步加劇套利交易的平倉。在這種情況下，謹慎的做法是對「逢低買入」保持謹慎。

Bitcoin Volatility Challenges Digital Gold Narrative

比特幣波動性挑戰數位黃金敘事

As equities plummeted, Bitcoin's behavior sparked significant interest. The world’s largest digital asset dropped as much as 17% last Monday—briefly falling below $50,000 for the first time since February—before recovering some of its losses, ending the day down 8%.

隨著股市暴跌，比特幣的行為引發了人們的極大興趣。全球最大的數位資產上週一下跌 17%，自 2 月以來首次短暫跌破 5 萬美元，隨後收復部分失地，收盤下跌 8%。

This contrasted with gold, which fell just over 1% on the day.

這與黃金形成鮮明對比，黃金當天下跌略高於 1%。

The selloff in Bitcoin highlights a crucial point: While it’s often touted as “digital gold,” there are some who believe the cryptocurrency has yet to prove itself as a stable store of value in times of market stress.

比特幣的拋售凸顯了一個關鍵點：雖然它經常被吹捧為“數位黃金”，但有些人認為，在市場壓力時期，這種加密貨幣尚未證明自己是一種穩定的價值儲存手段。

“Despite both gold and Bitcoin being limited supply, zero-coupon instruments, [Bitcoin] does not exhibit gold’s ‘store of value’ properties,” Citi analyst David Glass said in a note this week.

花旗分析師 David Glass 在本週的報告中表示：“儘管黃金和比特幣都是供應有限的零息工具，但[比特幣]並沒有表現出黃金的‘價值儲存’特性。”

Our own analysis adds some color to Citi’s conclusion and shows that Bitcoin has historically behaved more like a risk-on asset than a safe haven. Over the past decade, during the 10 worst months for the S&P 500, Bitcoin fell by an average of 6.4%, while gold remained slightly positive with an average return of 0.8%. During the best 10 best months, on the other hand, Bitcoin surged an eye-popping 22.4% on average, significantly outpacing gold’s 1.5%.

我們自己的分析為花旗的結論增添了一些色彩，並表明比特幣在歷史上的表現更像是一種風險資產，而不是避險資產。過去十年，在標普 500 指數表現最差的 10 個月中，比特幣平均下跌 6.4%，而黃金則保持小幅上漲，平均回報率為 0.8%。另一方面，在表現最好的 10 個月中，比特幣平均飆升了令人瞠目結舌的 22.4%，大大超過了黃金 1.5% 的漲幅。

This suggests that Bitcoin may offer higher potential returns than gold during market rallies, but it comes with greater risk during downturns. This is why I always recommend a 10% weighting in gold and gold mining stocks for more conservative investors, while Bitcoin and other digital assets may be more attractive to investors with a longer time horizon or higher risk tolerance.

這表明，在市場上漲期間，比特幣可能提供比黃金更高的潛在回報，但在市場低迷時期，它會帶來更大的風險。這就是為什麼我總是建議較保守的投資者將黃金和金礦股的權重定為10%，而比特幣和其他數位資產可能對時間跨度較長或風險承受能力較高的投資者更具吸引力。