VanEck 策略師 Matthew Sigel 預測比特幣 (BTC) 將在 2025 年第一季達到 18 萬美元

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 概述了 2025 年加密貨幣市場的詳細預測。

VanEck’s head of digital asset research has provided a detailed forecast for the cryptocurrency market through 2025.

VanEck 數位資產研究主管對 2025 年之前的加密貨幣市場進行了詳細預測。

According to Matthew Sigel, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach $180,000 in the first quarter before experiencing a correction. The analysis projects Ethereum (ETH) reaching over $6,000, while coins like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) could achieve $500 and $10, respectively.

Matthew Sigel 表示，比特幣 (BTC) 預計第一季將達到 18 萬美元，然後經歷回檔。分析預計以太坊 (ETH) 將達到 6,000 美元以上，而 Solana (SOL) 和 Sui (SUI) 等代幣可能分別達到 500 美元和 10 美元。

Sigel anticipates this initial peak will be followed by a market correction, with Bitcoin pulling back 30% and altcoins experiencing deeper declines of up to 60% during the summer months.

Sigel 預計，在這個最初的高峰之後將出現市場調整，比特幣將回落 30%，山寨幣將在夏季經歷更嚴重的跌幅，最高可達 60%。

To identify potential market tops, Sigel highlights several key indicators for investors to monitor. The research points to sustained high funding rates as a crucial signal.

為了確定潛在的市場頂部，Sigel 強調了投資者需要監控的幾個關鍵指標。研究指出，持續的高資助率是一個關鍵訊號。

He noted that when traders consistently pay funding rates above 10% for three months or longer to bet on Bitcoin price increases, it typically indicates excessive speculation in the market.

他指出，當交易者連續三個月或更長時間支付高於 10% 的資金利率來押注比特幣價格上漲時，通常表示市場存在過度投機。

The analysis also emphasizes the importance of tracking unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders. When a large proportion of holders maintain paper gains with a profit-to-cost ratio exceeding 70%, it often signals market euphoria.

該分析還強調了追蹤比特幣持有者未實現利潤的重要性。當大部分持有者維持帳面收益且利潤成本比超過70%時，往往預示市場的樂觀情緒。

Bitcoin’s market dominance serves as another critical indicator. Sigel warns that a drop below 40% could signal excessive speculation in altcoins, typical of late-cycle market behavior. 

比特幣的市場主導地位是另一個關鍵指標。 Sigel 警告稱，跌幅低於 40% 可能表明山寨幣過度投機，這是典型的晚期市場行為。

The research attributes current market momentum largely to Donald Trump’s election victory and his administration’s projected appointments. The anticipated crypto-friendly leadership team, including JD Vance as VP and Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, suggests a shift from previous restrictive policies toward a framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

該研究將當前的市場動力主要歸因於唐納德·川普的選舉勝利及其政府的預期任命。預期的加密貨幣友善領導團隊，包括擔任副總裁的 JD Vance 和擔任 SEC 主席的 Paul Atkins，建議從以前的限制性政策轉向將比特幣定位為戰略資產的框架。

Following the summer correction, Sigel forecasts a market recovery in fall 2025. Major cryptocurrencies will likely reclaim their previous all-time highs by year-end.

在夏季調整之後，Sigel 預測市場將於 2025 年秋季復甦。

This projection assumes continued institutional adoption and supportive regulatory developments under the new administration.

該預測假設在新政府的領導下繼續進行機構採用和支持性監管發展。

This market outlook provides investors with specific price targets and warning signals to monitor, while acknowledging the impact of political developments on the crypto market. 

這一市場前景為投資者提供了具體的價格目標和需要監控的警告信號，同時承認政治發展對加密貨幣市場的影響。