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隨著聯準會 (Fed) 啟動 2020 年以來的首次降息週期,穩定幣發行人的收入可能會下降。
Stablecoin issuers may experience a decline in income as the Federal Reserve begins a new round of interest rate cuts. According to a report by CCData, each 50 basis point cut by the Fed could lead to a $625 million drop in total annual interest income for stablecoin issuers.
隨著聯準會開始新一輪降息,穩定幣發行人的收入可能會下降。 CCData 的一份報告顯示,聯準會每降息 50 個基點,可能會導致穩定幣發行機構的年度利息收入總額減少 6.25 億美元。
The impact of interest rate cuts on stablecoins stems from the way some stablecoins are designed. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that derive their value from an external benchmark, such as fiat currencies or other crypto assets. Some of the most popular stablecoins, such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), have their value pegged to the U.S. dollar and maintain a reserve in cash or equivalent investments—often U.S. Treasurys—to support this peg.
降息對穩定幣的影響源自於一些穩定幣的設計方式。穩定幣是從外部基準(例如法定貨幣或其他加密資產)中獲取其價值的加密貨幣。一些最受歡迎的穩定幣,例如 Tether (USDT) 和 USD Coin (USDC),其價值與美元掛鉤,並保持現金或等價投資(通常是美國國債)儲備來支持這種掛鉤。
Centralized stablecoin providers, such as Tether and Circle, the issuer of USDC, have generated substantial income in recent years from the interest earned on their holdings of U.S. Treasurys as high interest rates drove up Treasury yields. According to the CCData report, U.S. Treasurys comprise the vast majority of reserves held by stablecoin issuers, at just over 80%, amounting to holdings of nearly $125 billion worth of Treasurys.
近年來,由於高利率推高了國債收益率,Tether 和 USDC 發行人 Circle 等中心化穩定幣提供者透過持有美國公債賺取的利息獲得了可觀的收入。 CCData 報告顯示,穩定幣發行機構持有的儲備絕大多數是美國國債,佔比略高於 80%,持有價值近 1,250 億美元的國債。
The report highlights that stablecoin issuers are heavily reliant on the income generated by their reserves, particularly in the absence of other significant revenue streams. For instance, Tether, the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, alone holds $93.2 billion worth of U.S. debt, which contributed significantly to the digital asset company's $5.2 billion of profits in the first half of 2024, as noted in the CCData report.
報告強調,穩定幣發行人嚴重依賴其儲備所產生的收入,特別是在缺乏其他重要收入來源的情況下。例如,CCData 報告指出,市值最大的穩定幣 Tether 就持有價值 932 億美元的美國債務,為這家數位資產公司 2024 年上半年 52 億美元的利潤做出了重大貢獻。
As the Federal Reserve pivots toward cutting interest rates, stablecoin issuers may face a challenge in maintaining their current levels of income. Each 50 basis point cut by the Fed could lead to a $625 million drop in total annual interest income for stablecoin issuers. The Fed itself anticipates cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of this year and another 100 basis points by the end of next year, setting the stage for a total of 150 basis points in cuts over the next two years.
隨著聯準會轉向降息,穩定幣發行人可能面臨維持當前收入水準的挑戰。聯準會每降息 50 個基點,就可能導致穩定幣發行機構的年度利息收入總額減少 6.25 億美元。聯準會本身預計今年底將總共降息50個基點,明年底再降息100個基點,為未來兩年總共降息150個基點奠定基礎。
If realized, these cuts would translate to a potential loss of $1.875 billion in annual interest income for stablecoin issuers over the next two years. However, the actual impact may vary depending on several factors, including the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts, the stablecoins' reserve composition, and any adjustments made by stablecoin issuers in response to the changing interest rate environment.
如果實現的話,這些削減將意味著未來兩年穩定幣發行人的年利息收入可能會損失 18.75 億美元。然而,實際影響可能會因多種因素而異,包括降息的速度和幅度、穩定幣的準備金組成以及穩定幣發行機構為應對不斷變化的利率環境而做出的調整。
Some speculate that lower interest rates could eventually push stablecoin providers and other financial institutions into riskier assets in an effort to earn a return on their reserves.
有些人猜測,較低的利率最終可能會促使穩定幣提供者和其他金融機構轉向風險較高的資產,以期從其儲備中獲得回報。
"With lower yields on safer assets, institutions often shift their focus toward 'risk-on' assets," wrote Andrei Terentiev, Director of Engineering at Bitcoin.com, in a post on the platform X. "Think stocks, crypto, and other investments that offer higher potential returns but come with greater risk," he added.
Bitcoin.com 工程總監Andrei Terentiev 在X 平台上的一篇文章中寫道:「由於更安全的資產收益率較低,機構往往將注意力轉向『風險』資產。」「想想股票、加密貨幣和其他資產。
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