綜合市場傢伙

到目前為止，Polymarket 的創建者基本上都遠離聚光燈，儘管他經營著當代政治中最有影響力的網站之一。

The 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in recent history, and a new player has emerged on the scene that is offering an interesting glimpse into the race: Polymarket.

2024 年總統選舉即將成為近代史上最受關注的選舉之一，而一位新參與者的出現為這場競選提供了有趣的一瞥：Polymarket。

The crypto-powered prediction market has attracted a following among political junkies and even some candidates themselves, offering a platform for users to bet on everything from the outcome of the election to whether Donald Trump will select JD Vance as his running mate.

由加密貨幣驅動的預測市場吸引了政治迷甚至一些候選人本身的追隨者，為用戶提供了一個平台，可以對一切進行押注，從選舉結果到唐納德·特朗普是否會選擇JD Vance 作為他的競選夥伴。

But what exactly is Polymarket, and how reliable are its odds? Here's a closer look at the company and its role in the 2024 race.

但 Polymarket 到底是什麼？以下是該公司及其在 2024 年比賽中所扮演的角色的詳細介紹。

What is Polymarket?

什麼是綜合市場？

Polymarket is a prediction market platform that allows users to buy and sell shares in the outcome of future events, such as elections, sports games, and economic indicators. The probability of an event occurring is determined by the price of its shares, which are set by a pool of bettors.

Polymarket 是一個預測市場平台，允許用戶買賣未來活動結果的股票，例如選舉、運動比賽和經濟指標。事件發生的機率由其股票價格決定，而股票價格由一群投注者設定。

The platform was founded in 2020 by Shahab Shams and Ben Coplan, and it quickly gained popularity among crypto enthusiasts and traders. In 2021, Polymarket was fined $1.2 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating in the U.S. without being registered with the agency.

該平台由 Shahab Shams 和 Ben Coplan 於 2020 年創立，迅速受到加密貨幣愛好者和交易者的歡迎。 2021 年，Polymarket 因未在美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 註冊而在美國開展業務而被罰款 120 萬美元。

Despite the fine, Polymarket has continued to operate in the U.S., and its odds have been widely reported by media outlets throughout the 2024 presidential campaign.

儘管被罰款，Polymarket 仍繼續在美國運營，其賠率在 2024 年總統競選期間被媒體廣泛報道。

How does Polymarket work?

綜合市場如何運作？

Polymarket users can buy and sell shares in the outcome of future events, such as the 2024 presidential election or whether the AP will call certain states by 8 p.m. The probability of an event occurring is determined by the price of its shares, which are set by a pool of bettors.

Polymarket 用戶可以根據未來事件的結果買賣股票，例如 2024 年總統選舉或美聯社是否會在晚上 8 點前致電某些州。

For example, on October 31, those who think Donald Trump will win every swing state could pay 26 cents, and if that comes to pass, the value of their contract will rise to $1. (If it doesn’t by election time, it will drop to zero). And, of course, the price will fluctuate in response to news events.

例如，在 10 月 31 日，那些認為唐納德·川普將贏得每個搖擺州的人可以支付 26 美分，如果這種情況成真，他們的合約價值將升至 1 美元。 （如果到了選舉時間還沒到來，它將降至零）。當然，價格會根據新聞事件而波動。

In theory, prediction markets like Polymarket are more reliable than polls because people have a financial income in the outcome, which gives them an incentive to be as accurate and truthful as they can.

從理論上講，像 Polymarket 這樣的預測市場比民意調查更可靠，因為人們在結果中獲得了經濟收入，這激勵他們盡可能準確和真實。

Are Polymarket's odds reliable?

Polymarket的賠率可靠嗎？

The reliability of Polymarket's odds is a matter of some debate. Some experts believe that the platform's decentralized nature and large pool of bettors make its odds more accurate than traditional polls. Others, however, point out that the platform's users are not necessarily representative of the American public, and that a large percentage of transactions on Polymarket are fake "wash trades."

Polymarket 賠率的可靠性存在一些爭議。一些專家認為，該平台的去中心化性質和大量投注者使其賠率比傳統民意調查更加準確。但也有人指出，該平台的用戶不一定代表美國大眾，Polymarket 上很大一部分交易都是虛假的「洗牌交易」。

A recent investigation by Fortune drew on blockchain data to reveal that around a third or more of the bets on Polymarket are in fact “wash trades”—a term that describes someone surreptitiously taking both sides of a trade. Doing so can manipulate markets by creating an artificial sense of trading volume or momentum in a given direction. This obviously has big implications concerning the integrity of Polymarket’s betting odds, and for the political process more generally. Polymarket declined to comment on the findings.

《財星》雜誌最近利用區塊鏈數據進行的一項調查顯示，Polymarket 上大約三分之一或更多的賭注實際上是「洗牌交易」——這個術語描述的是有人暗中進行交易的雙方。這樣做可以透過在給定方向上創造交易量或動量的人為感覺來操縱市場。這顯然對 Polymarket 投注賠率的完整性以及更廣泛的政治進程產生重大影響。 Polymarket 拒絕對調查結果發表評論。

Ultimately, the reliability of Polymarket's odds is something that each individual user must decide for themselves. However, the platform's odds have certainly generated a lot of interest and discussion during the 2024 presidential campaign.

最終，Polymarket 賠率的可靠性是每個使用者必須自己決定的。然而，該平台的賠率無疑在 2024 年總統競選期間引起了許多興趣和討論。