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加密貨幣市場繼續令人驚嘆,Celestia 區塊鏈的代幣 TIA 就是一個明顯的例子。
TIA, the native token of the Celestia blockchain, has seen a 40% increase in the last month, outperforming the 13% gain of the CoinDesk 20 index. This growth is surprising as many traders had positioned themselves for a price drop in anticipation of a token unlock worth $1.13 billion next month.
Celestia 區塊鏈的原生代幣 TIA 在上個月上漲了 40%,超過了 CoinDesk 20 指數 13% 的漲幅。這種增長令人驚訝,因為許多交易者預計下個月將有價值 11.3 億美元的代幣解鎖,因此已經做好了價格下跌的準備。
The CoinDesk 20 index tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid cryptocurrencies. While the entire cryptocurrency market has shown signs of recovery, TIA has outperformed expectations.
CoinDesk 20 指數追蹤最大、流動性最強的加密貨幣的表現。儘管整個加密貨幣市場已經出現復甦跡象,但 TIA 的表現超出了預期。
This is the largest gain for TIA since December 2023. On October 31, 175.74 million TIA tokens, which is 16% of the total supply, will be released.
這是TIA自2023年12月以來的最大漲幅。
This massive unlock poses a threat to the cryptocurrency’s price, as the influx of new tokens on the market could cause their value to plummet.
這種大規模的解鎖對加密貨幣的價格構成了威脅,因為市場上新代幣的湧入可能會導致其價值暴跌。
CryptoRank has estimated the value of these tokens at $1.13 billion, which is 82% of TIA's current market capitalization. Unlocks of this magnitude usually put bear pressure on prices, leading many market participants to hedge through perpetual contracts and OTC (over-the-counter) forward agreements.
CryptoRank 估計這些代幣的價值為 11.3 億美元,佔 TIA 當前市值的 82%。如此大規模的解鎖通常會對價格造成壓力,導致許多市場參與者透過永續合約和場外交易遠期協議進行對沖。
Many traders are anticipating the October 31st unlock and have positioned themselves as bear traders, expecting the price of TIA to drop once the tokens are released.
許多交易者預計 10 月 31 日解鎖,並將自己定位為空頭交易者,預計一旦代幣釋放,TIA 的價格就會下跌。
Jake Ostovskis, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk that the demand for bear hedges has increased significantly in recent weeks.
Wintermute 的場外交易員 Jake Ostovskis 告訴 CoinDesk,最近幾週對空頭對沖的需求大幅增加。
This is leading to a scenario where a “short squeeze” could occur. A short squeeze happens when the price of an asset unexpectedly increases, forcing the bear traders to close their positions, which in turn pushes the price even higher.
這導致可能出現“軋空”的情況。當資產價格意外上漲時,就會發生軋空,迫使空頭交易者平倉,進而推高價格。
In this case, TIA has maintained its resilience despite forecasts of a decline, thus leading to a chain effect that has further fueled its growth.
在這種情況下,儘管預測會出現下滑,但 TIA 仍保持了韌性,從而產生了連鎖效應,進一步推動了其成長。
This phenomenon has also been supported by the recovery of financing rates linked to perpetual contracts on TIA. After being negative since July, these rates have returned to zero, indicating an improvement in market prospects for TIA and suggesting that many short bear traders have been “wrong-footed” by the price’s resilience.
TIA 永續合約融資利率的回升也支持了這個現象。自 7 月以來一直為負值後,這些利率已回歸零,表明 TIA 的市場前景有所改善,並表明許多空頭交易者因價格的彈性而「措手不及」。
Another factor that has likely contributed to the TIA rally is the recent fundraising of $100 million, which was announced this week. This new round of financing brings the liquidity reserve of the Celestia foundation to $155 million, sparking further confidence among investors.
另一個可能推動 TIA 上漲的因素是本周宣布的近期 1 億美元融資。新一輪融資使Celestia基金會的流動性儲備達到1.55億美元,進一步激發了投資者的信心。
Although the team has not disclosed the details on the use of these funds, some observers have speculated that it was an OTC deal with a valuation of $3.4 billion, selling tokens at $3 each. A third of these tokens will be unlocked on October 31, the same day as the upcoming release of 175.74 million TIA.
儘管該團隊尚未透露這些資金的使用細節,但一些觀察人士猜測,這是一筆估值為 34 億美元的場外交易,以每個代幣 3 美元的價格出售。其中三分之一的代幣將於 10 月 31 日解鎖,同一天即將釋放 1.7574 億個 TIA。
Despite the large quantity of tokens arriving on the market, many analysts believe that the unlocking has already been priced in. Ostovskis observed that the market might have anticipated the event, allowing investors to take adequate measures before the unlocking actually occurs.
儘管大量代幣湧入市場,但許多分析師認為,解鎖已經被定價。
This has given traders a window of opportunity to adjust their strategies, thus reducing the negative impact that an influx of new tokens could have on the price.
這為交易者提供了調整策略的機會,從而減少了新代幣湧入可能對價格產生的負面影響。
According to Ostovskis, some market participants found the OTC sales to be controversial. However, in the end, the net effect seems to have been positive, allowing the market to absorb the risk more efficiently.
奧斯托夫斯基斯表示,一些市場參與者認為場外銷售存在爭議。然而,最終的淨效應似乎是正面的,使市場能夠更有效地吸收風險。
This has led many to believe that the worst is now behind us and that the market has already adapted to the new supply of tokens.
這讓許多人相信最糟糕的情況已經過去,市場已經適應了新的代幣供應。
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