林恩·奧爾登 (Lyn Alden) 表示，比特幣 (BTC) 是對抗貨幣貶值的潛在對沖工具

著名投資策略師林恩·奧爾登認為，美國已經進入「財政主導」時期，政府赤字正在推動貨幣政策

Prominent investment strategist Lyn Alden believes the U.S. has entered a period of "fiscal dominance" where government deficits are driving monetary policy.

著名投資策略師林恩·奧爾登認為，美國已進入「財政主導」時期，政府赤字正在推動貨幣政策。

In an appearance on the ‘Less Noise More Signal’ podcast, Alden shared her insights on the current economic environment, the role of Bitcoin, and the challenges facing traditional financial systems.

在「少噪音，多訊號」播客中，奧爾登分享了她對當前經濟環境、比特幣的作用以及傳統金融體系面臨的挑戰的見解。

She argues that this shift from the previous era of monetary dominance began around 2016-2017 and is primarily driven by demographic changes as the large baby boomer generation enters retirement.

她認為，這種與先前貨幣主導時代的轉變始於 2016 年至 2017 年左右，主要是由嬰兒潮世代進入退休後的人口變化所推動的。

Its implications for monetary policy are profound since raising interest rates can paradoxically worsen inflation by increasing the government’s debt burden, Alden notes.

奧爾登指出，它對貨幣政策的影響是深遠的，因為升息可能會增加政府的債務負擔，從而加劇通貨膨脹。

“When they [Federal Reserve] raise rates, it does slow down bank lending but it actually blows out the deficit by an even bigger number than it slows down bank lending,” the strategist points out.

這位策略師指出：“當聯準會升息時，它確實會減緩銀行貸款，但實際上，它對赤字的打擊幅度甚至比減緩銀行貸款的幅度還要大。”

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Alden sees Bitcoin as a potential hedge against monetary debasement, but emphasizes that its success depends on continued adoption and utility, in part as a “store of value.”

奧爾登將比特幣視為對抗貨幣貶值的潛在對沖工具，但強調其成功取決於持續的採用和實用性，部分是作為「價值儲存手段」。

Regarding government attitudes towards cryptocurrencies, Alden emphasizes that “governments are not monoliths,” pointing out the diversity of opinions within political structures. This diversity, she believes, is crucial in preventing overly restrictive policies.

關於政府對加密貨幣的態度，奧爾登強調“政府不是鐵板一塊”，並指出政治結構內部意見的多樣性。她認為，這種多樣性對於防止過度限制性政策至關重要。

Alden advocates for education as a key strategy in fostering a balanced approach to cryptocurrency regulation.

奧爾登主張將教育作為促進加密貨幣監管平衡方法的關鍵策略。

Alden also discussed the importance of liquidity in asset markets. In a recent study, she found Bitcoin to be highly correlated with global liquidity measures, moving in the same direction 83% of the time over 12-month periods, higher than any other asset class examined.

奧爾登也討論了資產市場流動性的重要性。在最近的一項研究中，她發現比特幣與全球流動性指標高度相關，在 12 個月內，83% 的時間都朝著同一個方向發展，高於所研究的任何其他資產類別。

However, Alden cautions against oversimplification. She notes that in the 17% of cases where Bitcoin doesn’t follow liquidity trends, other factors, such as valuation, come into play.

然而，奧爾登警告不要過於簡化。她指出，在 17% 的比特幣不遵循流動性趨勢的情況下，估值等其他因素就會發揮作用。

She concluded that new technologies like Bitcoin offer potential alternatives and hedges against traditional financial system risks.

她的結論是，比特幣等新技術提供了潛在的替代方案，可以對沖傳統金融體系的風險。

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