Lucid 股票低於 2.50 美元。是時候買進了嗎？

毫無疑問，電動車在全球汽車銷售中所佔的比例將繼續增長，但這並不意味著每家電動車公司都值得購買。

Electric vehicles are continuing to grow in popularity, but that doesn't mean every EV company is worth buying. In fact, some of these companies are facing some serious challenges.

電動車持續流行，但這並不意味著每家電動車公司都值得購買。事實上，其中一些公司正面臨一些嚴峻的挑戰。

One company that has seen its stock price plummet is Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID). The stock is now trading at just $2.01 per share, down from its 52-week high of $42.34.

Lucid（納斯達克股票代碼：LCID）是股價暴跌的公司之一。該股目前的交易價格僅為每股 2.01 美元，低於 42.34 美元的 52 週高點。

So, what's the big deal? Is Lucid's stock really a buy at this price? Let's take a closer look.

那麼，有什麼大不了的呢？ Lucid 的股票真的值得以這個價格買進嗎？讓我們仔細看看。

The biggest challenge for Lucid is competition. The EV market is becoming increasingly crowded, with new companies entering the fray all the time. This is putting pressure on prices and margins.

Lucid 面臨的最大挑戰是競爭。電動車市場變得越來越擁擠，不斷有新公司加入競爭。這給價格和利潤帶來了壓力。

To illustrate this point, let's take a look at Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), the company that Lucid would most like to be like.

為了說明這一點，讓我們來看看 Lucid 最希望成為的公司－特斯拉（納斯達克股票代碼：TSLA）。

As you can see in the chart below, Tesla's gross margins were highest during the pandemic when the supply of vehicles was low. However, in 2023, the company had to cut prices to maintain sales and, as a result, margins were crushed.

如下圖所示，特斯拉的毛利率在疫情期間車輛供應量較低時最高。然而，到了 2023 年，該公司不得不降價以維持銷售，結果利潤率受到擠壓。

TSLA Gross Profit Margin data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的 TSLA 毛利率數據

This is the challenge for automakers. A hard good like an automobile has high marginal costs, inventory costs are high, and supply and demand are very real dynamics. As the supply of EVs goes up, demand hasn't kept pace, pushing prices and margins lower.

這是汽車製造商面臨的挑戰。像汽車這樣的硬商品的邊際成本很高，庫存成本也很高，而且供給和需求是非常真實的動態。隨著電動車供應量的增加，需求卻未能跟上，導致價格和利潤率下降。

Now, Tesla's challenges are still relatively minor compared to Lucid's. For example, Tesla has positive gross margins and free cash flow. However, Lucid's challenges are much bigger.

現在，與 Lucid 相比，特斯拉麵臨的挑戰仍然相對較小。例如，特斯拉擁有正的毛利率和自由現金流。然而，Lucid 面臨的挑戰要大得多。

In fact, as you can see below, Lucid's gross margins are negative 106% and show no signs of an inflection.

事實上，正如您在下面看到的，Lucid 的毛利率為負 106%，並且沒有任何變化的跡象。

LCID Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的 LCID 收入 (TTM) 數據

This is a huge problem and one that doesn't seem to be getting any better.

這是一個大問題，而且似乎沒有任何改善。

Another problem for Lucid is that its vehicles are expensive. The starting price for a Lucid vehicle is $69,900, which puts it out of reach of the average buyer. This makes it difficult to scale because there's not enough demand beyond the 9,000 vehicles expected to be produced this year. It's hard to sell a vehicle for $70,000 when there are options for half that.

Lucid 的另一個問題是其車輛價格昂貴。 Lucid 車輛的起價為 69,900 美元，這超出了普通買家的負擔範圍。這使得規模化變得困難，因為除了今年預計生產的 9,000 輛汽車之外，沒有足夠的需求。當有一半的選擇時，很難以 70,000 美元的價格出售一輛車。

Finally, another big challenge for Lucid is costs, which haven't come down nearly fast enough given the company's scale. Playing in the luxury market is inherently a low-volume market, and if a company can't make money at small volumes at these price points, it's a difficult road ahead.

最後，Lucid 面臨的另一個重大挑戰是成本，考慮到該公司的規模，成本下降的速度還不夠快。奢侈品市場本質上是一個小批量市場，如果一家公司無法在這些價位上小批量賺錢，那麼前進的道路就會很困難。

Overall, I think the challenges for Lucid are too great to ignore. The company isn't profitable, it has a lot of debt, and the competitive environment is getting tougher.

總的來說，我認為 Lucid 面臨的挑戰太大，不容忽視。該公司沒有獲利，負債累累，競爭環境變得更加嚴峻。

I don't see a recovery ahead for Lucid and I think the risks are too high to bet on. I would avoid the stock at this price.

我認為 Lucid 不會復甦，而且我認為風險太高，無法押注。我會避開這個價格的股票。