iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT)：它能讓你成為百萬富翁嗎？

一月份推出的新現貨比特幣 (BTC -0.17%) ETF 無疑是加密貨幣市場今年最大的事件之一。

The launch of the new spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs in January was easily one of the biggest events of the year for the crypto market. As soon as these ETFs started trading, money began flooding into them as a way to get exposure to Bitcoin.

一月份推出的新現貨比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）ETF 無疑是加密貨幣市場今年最大的事件之一。這些 ETF 一開始交易，資金就開始湧入它們，作為投資比特幣的一種方式。

Thus far, the biggest standout among the nearly dozen new spot Bitcoin ETFs is the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:IBIT) from BlackRock. With more than $40 billion in assets under management, it is now considered the benchmark spot Bitcoin ETF.

到目前為止，在近十個新現貨比特幣 ETF 中，最引人注目的是 BerRock 的 iShares 比特幣信託 (NYSE:IBIT)。它管理的資產超過 400 億美元，目前被認為是基準現貨比特幣 ETF。

It is also the easiest way for the everyday investor to get exposure to Bitcoin. But is it a millionaire maker?

這也是一般投資者接觸比特幣最簡單的方法。但這是百萬富翁製造者嗎？

An ETF that tracks Bitcoin's price performance

追蹤比特幣價格表現的 ETF

The iShares Bitcoin Trust holds only a single asset: Bitcoin. Unlike traditional ETFs, which typically hold a diversified basket of stocks, this ETF makes no attempt to diversify away from Bitcoin. This might not be good news if you're looking for diversified exposure to the broader crypto market, but it's fantastic news if all you want is exposure to Bitcoin.

iShares 比特幣信託只持有一種資產：比特幣。與通常持有多元化一籃子股票的傳統 ETF 不同，該 ETF 並未嘗試從比特幣轉向多元化。如果您正在尋求更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的多元化投資，這可能不是個好消息，但如果您只想投資比特幣，那麼這就是個好消息。

Holding only a single asset makes it possible for the iShares Bitcoin Trust to track the daily price of Bitcoin on a nearly 1:1 basis. And, indeed, if you look at a chart comparing the performance of the iShares Bitcoin Trust to the performance of Bitcoin, you'll see that it does an excellent job of tracking Bitcoin.

僅持有單一資產使得 iShares Bitcoin Trust 能夠以近 1:1 的比例追蹤比特幣的每日價格。事實上，如果您查看將 iShares 比特幣信託基金的表現與比特幣的表現進行比較的圖表，您會發現它在追蹤比特幣方面做得非常出色。

Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView

比特幣/美元圖表由TradingView提供

Of course, it's impossible to get perfect 1:1 tracking. Bitcoin trades globally, on a 24/7 basis, while Wall Street is only open for business during certain hours of the day and week. But the iShares Bitcoin Trust is arguably as close as you're going to get to 1:1 tracking of Bitcoin without buying it directly in the spot cryptocurrency market yourself.

當然，完美的1:1追蹤是不可能的。比特幣在全球 24/7 進行交易，而華爾街僅在一天和一周的特定時間開放。但 iShares 比特幣信託基金可以說是最接近比特幣的 1:1 跟踪，而無需您自己直接在現貨加密貨幣市場購買。

This 1:1 tracking makes the iShares Bitcoin Trust a huge improvement over the previous iteration of Bitcoin ETFs, which relied on financial derivatives (such as forwards and futures) to track the price of Bitcoin. While these earlier Bitcoin ETFs came close to tracking Bitcoin's price over short intervals, they were prone to significant tracking error over the long-term.

這種 1:1 的追蹤使得 iShares Bitcoin Trust 比之前的比特幣 ETF 有了巨大的進步，後者依靠金融衍生性商品（如遠期和期貨）來追蹤比特幣的價格。雖然這些早期的比特幣 ETF 在短時間內接近追蹤比特幣的價格，但從長期來看，它們很容易出現嚴重的追蹤錯誤。

Where does Bitcoin's price go from here?

比特幣的價格將走向何方？

Given that the iShares Bitcoin Trust does an excellent job of tracking the price of Bitcoin, the obvious question becomes: How much higher can Bitcoin go from here? After all, if you're really intent on becoming a crypto millionaire, then you need the price of Bitcoin to soar as high as possible, right?

鑑於 iShares 比特幣信託基金在追蹤比特幣價格方面做得非常出色，顯而易見的問題是：比特幣還能上漲多少？畢竟，如果你真的想成為加密貨幣百萬富翁，那麼你需要比特幣的價格盡可能飆升，對吧？

The good news is that, according to a growing number of analysts and investors, Bitcoin's future price could reach stratospheric heights. For example, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest thinks that the price of Bitcoin could climb as high as $1 million by 2030. And, in a bullish case, Bitcoin might even reach $3.8 million. She's basing her price forecasts on assumptions about Bitcoin's growing adoption as a key part of the modern financial system.

好消息是，根據越來越多的分析師和投資者的說法，比特幣的未來價格可能會達到平流層的高度。例如，Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 認為，到 2030 年，比特幣的價格可能會攀升至 100 萬美元。 而且，在看漲的情況下，比特幣甚至可能達到 380 萬美元。她的價格預測是基於比特幣作為現代金融體系關鍵組成部分日益普及的假設。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖片來源：蓋蒂圖片社。

And, if you're feeling particularly bullish, consider the price prediction of Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy. He's now predicting that Bitcoin could soar as high as $49 million per coin by the year 2045. In a base case, he says, Bitcoin could hit $13 million per coin.

而且，如果您覺得特別樂觀，請考慮 MicroStrategy 創辦人兼執行主席 Michael Saylor 的價格預測。他現在預測，到 2045 年，比特幣的每枚硬幣可能會飆升至 4,900 萬美元 他表示，在基本情況下，每枚比特幣的價格可能會達到 1,300 萬美元。

Moreover, as we know from Bitcoin's historical track record, it has proven to have had plenty of upside potential in the past. Just over a decade ago, Bitcoin was trading for $100. Today, it trades for close to $100,000. For much of the past decade, Bitcoin has been one of the top-performing assets in the world, far ahead of many other asset classes.

此外，正如我們從比特幣的歷史記錄中得知的那樣，事實證明它在過去具有巨大的上漲潛力。就在十多年前，比特幣的交易價格為 100 美元。如今，它的交易價格接近 10 萬美元。在過去十年的大部分時間裡，比特幣一直是世界上表現最好的資產之一，遠遠領先許多其他資產類別。

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it gives you a good idea of why future Bitcoin price forecasts are so bullish.

當然，過去的表現並不能保證未來的表現，但它讓您很好地了解為什麼未來的比特幣價格預測如此樂觀。

Can you turn $1,000 into $1 million?

你能把1000美元變成100萬美元嗎？

For the sake of argument, let's say that you have $1,000 that you're willing to invest into the iShares Bitcoin Trust. In order to become a crypto millionaire, you'd need to see a 1,000x return on your investment. To make the math easier, let's also assume that Bitcoin hits a price of $100,000 by the end of 2024.

為了方便討論，假設您願意投資 1,000 美元到 iShares 比特幣信託基金。為了成為加密貨幣百萬富翁，您需要看到 1,000 倍的投資回報。為了讓計算變得更容易，我們也假設比特幣的價格到 2024 年底將達到 10 萬美元。

In order to attain that 1,000x return on your money, you'd need to see the price of Bitcoin hit... (drumroll, please)... $100 million. That's highly improbable, even given Michael Saylor's price predictions, which top out at $49 million per coin in the most bullish of all possible future scenarios.

為了獲得 1,000 倍的資金回報，您需要看到比特幣的價格達到…（請擊鼓）…1 億美元。即使考慮到 Michael Saylor 的價格預測（在所有可能的未來情境中最樂觀的情況下，每枚代幣的最高價格為 4,900 萬美元），這也是極不可能的。

So you have two options if you're really focused

所以如果你真的很專注的話你有兩個選擇