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當 SEC 於 2024 年 7 月宣布批准多個現貨以太坊 ETF 產品時,市場情緒幾乎得到普遍支持和鼓勵
The approval of multiple spot ether ETF products by the SEC in July 2024 was met with almost universal support and optimism within the market. After years of stymied efforts by industry advocates and operators to create and trade spot ETFs, the two largest cryptocurrencies – bitcoin and ether – had finally received ETF approval within the same year.
2024 年 7 月,美國 SEC 批准了多個現貨以太坊 ETF 產品,幾乎得到了市場的普遍支持和樂觀。經過行業倡導者和運營商多年來創建和交易現貨 ETF 的努力,兩種最大的加密貨幣——比特幣和以太幣——終於在同年獲得 ETF 批准。
However, in stark contrast to the dramatic increase in price that bitcoin experienced, the majority of which has remained intact even as headline volatility has continued to increase, the price response to the ether ETF was muted. Even more interestingly the trading volumes and institutional appetite for these ETF products has also remained lower than the spot bitcoin ETF and/or market forecasts.
然而,與比特幣價格的大幅上漲形成鮮明對比的是,儘管整體波動性持續增加,但大部分比特幣價格仍保持不變,而以太幣 ETF 的價格反應卻很溫和。更有趣的是,這些 ETF 產品的交易量和機構興趣也仍然低於現貨比特幣 ETF 和/或市場預測。
Highlighting this sluggish beginning are the outflows that have been occurring from the ether ETF products, capped by a nearly $80 million outflow on a single Monday, which was the highest since a $98 million outflow figure in July 2024. While bitcoin has increased over 50% in 2024 (since the launch of spot ETF products), ether has only climbed approximately 15% and has yet to surpass the previous all-time-highs last achieved in 2021. By whichever metric is analyzed the launch of spot ether ETFs has fallen flat when compared to spot bitcoin ETFs.
以太坊ETF 產品的資金流出凸顯了這一緩慢的開局,單週一資金流出量接近8000 萬美元,這是自2024 年7 月9800 萬美元流出數據以來的最高水平。以上2024 年(自推出現貨 ETF 產品以來),以太坊僅上漲了約 15%,尚未超過 2021 年創下的歷史新高。 ETF 相比。
Let’s take a look at a few of the reasons why, despite serving as the blockchain of choice for many Layer 2 applications, the ether ETF has gotten off to a slow start.
讓我們來看看儘管以太坊 ETF 作為許多第 2 層應用程式的首選區塊鏈,但起步緩慢的幾個原因。
Bitcoin Is Synonymous With Crypto
比特幣是加密貨幣的代名詞
Even though the cryptoasset space has expanded dramatically in just the last several years, the reality remains that in most media and institutional conversations, bitcoin is still the unquestioned leader. This can be observed either through anecdotally observing business media coverage and corporate announcements, and by watching the actions of TradFi institutions and nation-states alike.
儘管加密資產空間在過去幾年中急劇擴張,但現實仍然是,在大多數媒體和機構對話中,比特幣仍然是毫無疑問的領導者。這可以透過觀察商業媒體報導和公司公告,以及觀察 TradFi 機構和民族國家的行為來觀察。
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted billions in investment while sending the price of bitcoin up substantially, while corporate purchasers such as Microstrategy continue to focus on exclusively purchasing bitcoin. Larry Fink and Blackrock have issued public facing documents touting the appeal and upside of bitcoin, and nations such as El Salvador and more recently Bhutan have amassed stockpiles of bitcoin.
比特幣 ETF 吸引了數十億美元的投資,同時大幅上漲了比特幣的價格,而 Microstrategy 等企業購買者則繼續專注於專門購買比特幣。拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)和貝萊德(Blackrock)發布了面向公眾的文件,宣傳比特幣的吸引力和優勢,薩爾瓦多和最近的不丹等國家也積累了比特幣庫存。
Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto landscape, as well as the dollars that are being allocated by larger institutional investors.
比特幣繼續主導加密貨幣領域,以及由大型機構投資者配置的美元。
Lack Of Narrative
缺乏敘事
As multi-faceted as the crypto landscape continues to be, the narrative and messaging around bitcoin has remained uniquely consistent since inception. From being labeled as digital gold, or a store or value, or the money of the future the narratives around bitcoin have remained steadfast. Even if the specifics of these narratives, or how well they manifest in the market, investors and regulators alike have become familiar with them to base decision making around these frameworks. This consistency has manifested itself even bitcoin is famously decentralized, has no identified creator, nor does the cryptocurrency have any sort of governing body.
儘管加密貨幣領域仍然是多面向的,但圍繞比特幣的敘事和資訊自誕生以來一直保持著獨特的一致性。從被貼上「數位黃金」、「儲存手段」、「價值」、「未來貨幣」的標籤,圍繞比特幣的敘事一直很堅定。即使這些敘述的具體細節,或者它們在市場上的表現如何,投資者和監管機構都已經熟悉它們,以便圍繞這些框架做出決策。即使比特幣是出了名的去中心化、沒有確定的創造者、也沒有任何類型的管理機構,這種一致性也已經顯現出來。
Ether on the other hand, has seemingly struggled to find a message and/or narrative that is consistent enough, simple enough, or intuitive enough to be seized by mainstream investors. Even though the Ethereum blockchain and the ether token serves as the base layer for many of the enterprise applications that are driving the investment dollars into crypto, the presentation of Ethereum as the internet of the future or other amorphous value propositions have proven difficult for institutional investors to get behind.
另一方面,以太坊似乎很難找到足夠一致、足夠簡單或足夠直觀的資訊和/或敘述,以便被主流投資者抓住。儘管以太坊區塊鏈和以太幣是許多企業應用程式的基礎層,這些應用程式正在推動加密貨幣領域的投資,但事實證明,將以太坊作為未來互聯網或其他無定形價值主張的呈現對於機構投資者來說是困難的落後。
Price Paradox
價格悖論
Last but certainly not least is the reality that, and directly connected to the primary value proposition of Ethereum and ether at large is the fact that ether is perhaps the token most susceptible to the crypto price paradox. Ether serves as the currency of choice for most of the Layer 2 applications that are driving enterprise adoption; stablecoins, DeFi, DAOs, and even NFTs all (for the most part) run and rely on ether. Even with improvements made via various upgrades – which have substantially increased capacity and reduced cost – the fact remains that pricing services in ether will have exercise downward pressure on a price-per-token basis.
最後但同樣重要的事實是,與以太坊和以太幣的主要價值主張直接相關的事實是,以太幣可能是最容易受到加密貨幣價格悖論影響的代幣。以太幣是大多數推動企業採用的第 2 層應用程式的首選貨幣;穩定幣、DeFi、DAO,甚至 NFT(大部分)都運行並依賴以太坊。即使透過各種升級進行了改進(大大增加了容量並降低了成本),事實仍然是以太坊定價服務將對每個代幣的價格產生下行壓力。
Put simply any token, be it ether or otherwise, that simultaneously serves as a potential medium of exchange and investment asset (via spot ETFs) is going to need to obtain a medium satisfactory to both interested parties. Given the muted price action of ether following the approval and launch of spot ether ETFs, and the preference of institutions and governments to select bitcoin above other cryptoassets, and it appears that this paradox will continue to exercise influence for the foreseeable future.
簡而言之,任何同時充當潛在交易媒介和投資資產(透過現貨 ETF)的代幣,無論是以太幣還是其他代幣,都需要獲得令雙方都滿意的媒介。鑑於以太幣現貨 ETF 獲準和推出後價格走勢平淡,以及機構和政府更傾向於選擇比特幣而非其他加密資產,這一悖論似乎在可預見的未來將繼續產生影響。
Crypto ETFs have been a positive development for the sector, but not all such instruments deliver equally positive returns.
加密貨幣 ETF 對該行業來說是一個積極的發展,但並非所有此類工具都能帶來同樣積極的回報。
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