美國大選節奏及後續影響分析

未來一周，毫無疑問全球關注的焦點將集中在美國大選上。因此，我花了一些時間仔細概述了即將到來的時間表和核心亮點，並展望了後續的影響。

As the U.S. presidential election nears its climax, the announcement of election results will begin on November 5, U.S. time. Due to different state policies regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots, there are discrepancies in the timing of result announcements. Most swing states will begin voting at 6 a.m. and continue until 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. After voting ends, the counting process begins.

隨著美國總統大選接近高潮，選舉結果將於美國時間11月5日開始公佈。由於國家在選票處理、計票規則和郵寄選票方面的政策不同，結果公佈的時間存在差異。大多數搖擺州將於早上 6 點開始投票，一直持續到晚上 7 點至晚上 9 點。

However, due to different state policies, the timing of result announcements varies. Here’s a summary of some key states where results are often announced later:

但由於國家政策不同，結果公佈的時間也有所不同。以下是一些通常稍後公佈結果的關鍵州的摘要：

California allows a longer mail-in ballot receipt period. Mail-in ballots only need to be postmarked on Election Day and arrive by a specified date to be counted. Additionally, due to the state's large population and extended counting time, it is often one of the last states to announce complete results.

加州允許更長的郵寄選票接收期限。郵寄選票只需在選舉日蓋上郵戳並在指定日期之前送達即可進行計票。此外，由於該州人口眾多且計票時間較長，該州往往是最後公佈完整結果的州之一。

Pennsylvania typically begins processing mail-in ballots only on Election Day, which slows down the counting process, especially in years with a high number of mail-in ballots. As a key swing state, the vote count in Pennsylvania is usually closely watched, but the counting process is relatively delayed. Therefore, final results are announced several days after Election Day.

賓州通常只在選舉日開始處理郵寄選票，這會減慢計票過程，尤其是在郵寄選票數量較多的年份。作為關鍵的搖擺州，賓州的計票工作通常受到密切關注，但計票過程相對延遲。因此，最終結果將在選舉日幾天後公佈。

Michigan and Wisconsin also process mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and as swing states, close vote margins can lead to longer counting times to ensure accuracy. Typically, ballot processing is completed by the evening of the following day.

密西根州和威斯康辛州也只在選舉日處理郵寄選票，作為搖擺州，接近的選票差距可能會導致計票時間更長，以確保準確性。通常，選票處理在第二天晚上完成。

Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, so results may be delayed for a few days, especially in election years with a high volume of ballots.

內華達州允許郵寄選票在選舉日幾天後送達，因此結果可能會延遲幾天，特別是在選票量較大的選舉年。

North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked before or on Election Day. This often delays the announcement of final results, which typically occurs a week later.

北卡羅來納州允許在選舉日後 9 天內收到郵寄選票，只要這些選票在選舉日之前或當天蓋上郵戳即可。這通常會延遲最終結果的公佈，通常會在一周後公佈。

You may notice that aside from California, which is a stronghold for the Democratic Party, most are swing states, with Pennsylvania being a key battleground state. Therefore, the entire game surrounding the election will reach a climax a few days after the popular vote concludes.

大家可能會注意到，除了民主黨的大本營加州以外，大部分都是搖擺州，其中賓州是關鍵的戰場州。因此，圍繞選舉的整個博弈將會在普選結束幾天後達到高潮。

In addition to the presidential election, the results of the U.S. House of Representatives elections are equally important. We know that in the U.S. federal government, the president, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The president holds executive power, while the Senate and the House (collectively known as Congress) share legislative power. These three branches are both independent and closely related to achieve checks and balances. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:

除了總統選舉之外，美國眾議院選舉的結果也同樣重要。我們知道，在美國聯邦政府中，總統、參眾兩院共同構成了三權分立的核心架構。總統擁有行政權，參議院和眾議院（統稱為國會）分享立法權。這三個分支既獨立又密切相關，實現制衡。眾議院是國會下議院，擁有以下主要權力：

To propose, discuss, and pass bills (including bills related to taxation and government spending). After a bill is passed by the House of Representatives, it is sent to the Senate for further discussion and approval. If the Senate passes the bill with any amendments, it is returned to the House of Representatives for a second vote. Only after both houses pass the same bill can it be submitted to the president for approval and enactment.

提出、討論和通過法案（包括與稅收和政府支出有關的法案）。眾議院通過法案後，將送交參議院進一步討論與批准。如果參議院通過了該法案並附帶任何修正案，則該法案將返回眾議院進行第二次投票。只有在參眾兩院都通過同一法案後，才能提交總統批准和實施。

To conduct investigations and exercise oversight functions over various government departments and agencies. The House of Representatives has the power to conduct investigations and hearings on any matter within its jurisdiction. Through this power, the House of Representatives can supervise and oversee the work of various government departments and agencies, including the executive branch. For example, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee has broad oversight authority over federal agencies and programs.

對政府各部門和機構進行調查並行使監督職能。眾議院有權就其管轄範圍內的任何事項進行調查和聽證會。透過這項權力，眾議院可以監督和監督包括行政部門在內的各個政府部門和機構的工作。例如，眾議院監督和政府改革委員會對聯邦機構和計畫擁有廣泛的監督權。

To conduct impeachment proceedings against the president, vice president, or other federal officials. The House of Representatives has the sole power to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president, vice president, or other federal officials for "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors." If a majority of the House of Representatives votes to impeach an official, the case is then referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the official from office.

對總統、副總統或其他聯邦官員進行彈劾程序。眾議院擁有以「叛國、賄賂或其他重罪和輕罪」為由對總統、副總統或其他聯邦官員啟動彈劾程序的唯一權力。如果眾議院多數議員投票支持彈劾某官員，該案將提交參議院審理。需要參議院三分之二多數票才能將該官員定罪並免職。

Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House determines the difficulty for the president to implement his economic policies. A president whose party does not hold a majority in the House is often referred to as a "minority president," making it generally very difficult to push through legislation. The House elections are held every two years, and in election years, the House elections and presidential elections are usually held on the same day, typically on the first Tuesday of November in even-numbered years. On this day, voters will cast their votes for the president and all 435 House seats. Thus, the results of the two elections are usually announced in a similar timeframe, although the specific order may vary. However, generally speaking, due to smaller House districts, the counting of ballots is faster, so the results are usually available earlier.

因此，可以說眾議院的分配決定了總統實施經濟政策的困難。其政黨在眾議院不佔多數的總統通常被稱為“少數派總統”，這使得推動立法通常非常困難。眾議院選舉每兩年舉行一次，在選舉年，眾議院選舉和總統選舉通常在同一天舉行，偶數年通常在 11 月的第一個星期二舉行。這一天，選民將投票選出總統和全部 435 個眾議院席位。因此，兩次選舉的結果通常在相似的時間範圍內公佈，儘管具體順序可能有所不同。不過，一般來說，由於眾議院選區較小，計票速度較快，因此結果通常會較早出爐。

In previous articles, we have analyzed the economic policies of both parties. Here, I will briefly review them. The Democratic Party, represented

在之前的文章中，我們分析過雙方的經濟政策。在這裡，我將簡要回顧一下它們。民主黨代表