經濟數據增加了利率的不確定性

美元最初因強勁的私人就業數據而上漲，ADP 報告稱，儘管罷工和颶風可能造成乾擾，但 10 月的招聘意外激增。

The dollar index rose on Thursday, recovering from a seven-month low hit in the previous session, as robust U.S. private payroll data and sticky inflation readings countered weaker-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth.

美元指數週四上漲，從前一交易日觸及的七個月低點回升，因強勁的美國私人就業數據和黏性通膨數據抵消了弱於預期的第三季GDP成長。

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, gained 0.2%, recovering some ground after falling to a low of 102.78 on Wednesday, its weakest level since April 2023.

衡量美元兌一籃子主要貨幣的美元指數上漲0.2%，在周三跌至2023年4月以來的最低水準102.78後收復部分失地。

At last check in New York, the dollar index was up 0.18% at 103.33.

截至紐約匯市，美元指數上漲0.18%至103.33。

The dollar initially gained after ADP reported a strong increase in October private payrolls, countering expectations of a slowdown.

在 ADP 報告 10 月份私人就業人數強勁增長，抵消了經濟放緩的預期後，美元最初上漲。

The dollar briefly extended gains after data showed that U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product increased at a solid 2.8% annualized rate, though weaker than the 3% economists had anticipated.

數據顯示美國第三季國內生產毛額年化成長率穩定在 2.8%，但低於經濟學家預期的 3%，美元短暫延續漲勢。

The dollar gave up some ground after the GDP reading, with traders now awaiting Thursday's personal consumption expenditures price index data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's rate path.

GDP數據公佈後，美元下跌，交易員目前正在等待週四的個人消費支出物價指數數據，以獲取有關聯準會利率路徑的進一步線索。

"This data adds to the evidence that the U.S. is still on course for a 'soft landing' as growth remains resilient, helped by strength in consumer spending, business investment, and net exports," said Michael Brown, senior markets analyst at online broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.

線上經紀商高級市場分析師邁克爾布朗表示：“這一數據進一步證明，在消費者支出、商業投資和淨出口強勁的幫助下，美國仍將實現‘軟著陸’，增長仍保持彈性。”墨爾本的佩珀斯通。

"Still to come this week are PCE inflation figures, which will provide the final piece of the puzzle and could influence traders' outlook for the Fed's terminal rate and the timing of rate cuts.”

“本週仍將公佈個人消費支出通膨數據，這將提供最後一塊拼圖，並可能影響交易者對美聯儲最終利率和降息時機的前景。”

Traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a 50-basis-point increase by the Fed at its December meeting and see the terminal rate reaching a peak of around 4.89% by mid-2024.

交易員預計聯準會在 12 月會議上升息 50 個基點的可能性為 63%，並預計最終利率到 2024 年中期將達到 4.89% 左右的峰值。

Among other currencies, the British pound fell 0.42% to $1.2961, after hitting a nine-day high earlier in the session.

其他貨幣中，英鎊兌美元下跌0.42%，至1.2961美元，盤中早些時候觸及九天高點。

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves unveiled the Labour government's first budget on Wednesday, prioritizing fiscal discipline and stability in public finances.

英國財政大臣雷切爾·里夫斯週三公佈了工黨政府的第一份預算，優先考慮財政紀律和公共財政穩定。

The budget aims to maintain investor confidence, particularly after the market turmoil sparked by former Prime Minister Liz Truss' tax-cutting policies in 2022.

該預算旨在維持投資者信心，特別是在前總理利茲·特拉斯 (Liz Truss) 2022 年減稅政策引發市場動盪之後。

"For Chancellor Reeves, PM Starmer, gilts, the pound, and the entire U.K. economy, there is a huge amount resting on this budget," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

荷蘭合作銀行外匯策略主管 Jane Foley 表示：“對於裡維斯財政大臣、斯塔默首相、英國國債、英鎊以及整個英國經濟來說，這項預算有巨額資金。”

"The pullback in U.K. bond yields gathered pace as the government's cautious fiscal approach unfolded, putting some pressure on sterling."

“隨著政府採取謹慎的財政政策，英國債券收益率的回調步伐加快，給英鎊帶來了一些壓力。”

The euro was flat at $1.0814, as traders digested stronger-than-expected German growth and inflation readings.

由於交易員消化了強於預期的德國經濟成長和通膨數據，歐元持平於 1.0814 美元。

German factory orders and industrial output both rose in September, while consumer prices increased by 11.6% year-over-year in October, above expectations.

德國9月工廠訂單和工業產出雙雙上漲，10月消費者價格較去年同期上漲11.6%，高於預期。

The euro initially gained on the German data, which reduced the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the European Central Bank in December.

歐元最初因德國數據而上漲，該數據降低了歐洲央行12月大幅降息的可能性。

However, the dollar's strength in the second half of the session and weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP growth limited further gains in the euro.

然而，美元後半段走強以及美國GDP成長弱於預期限制了歐元的進一步上漲。

Third-quarter eurozone GDP growth came in at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which was slightly higher than anticipated and provided some initial support for the euro.

歐元區第三季GDP季增0.4%，略高於預期，為歐元提供了一些初步支撐。