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美國頂級加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 認為,數位資產剛剛為未來幾個月的大幅上漲做好準備。
Top US crypto exchange Coinbase is convinced that digital assets are about to heat up for big rallies in the months to come.
美國頂級加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 堅信,數位資產將在未來幾個月內升溫並迎來大幅上漲。
In a new research report, Coinbase Institutional says the recent shift in the macroeconomic backdrop suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto are primed for a Q4 surge.
Coinbase 機構在一份新的研究報告中表示,最近宏觀經濟背景的變化表明比特幣(BTC)和加密貨幣已為第四季度的飆升做好了準備。
According to Coinbase, both the Fed and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are now pursuing looser monetary policies – conditions that have historically been supportive of higher crypto prices.
據 Coinbase 稱,聯準會和中國人民銀行(PBOC)現在都在推行更寬鬆的貨幣政策——歷史上一直支持加密貨幣價格上漲的條件。
“Looking ahead, we retain a constructive outlook for 4Q24 mostly predicated on our favorable view of the current macro environment, alongside the idiosyncratic factors listed above.
「展望未來,我們對 2024 年第四季保持建設性展望,主要基於我們對當前宏觀環境的有利看法,以及上述特殊因素。
For example, just last week, we argued that one of the most significant implications of the Fed decision to cut 50bps (basis points) is that this provides cover for other monetary authorities to take more stimulative measures.
例如,就在上週,我們認為聯準會決定降息 50 個基點(基點)的最重要影響之一是,這為其他貨幣當局採取更多刺激措施提供了掩護。
This has been followed by China revealing a massive double fiscal and monetary stimulus package that includes a record-breaking rate cut, liquidity support for stocks, and a drop in the banking reserve requirement ratio – all in an effort to both ‘boost lending and reduce the existing loan burdens.'”
隨後,中國公佈了大規模的財政和貨幣雙重刺激計劃,其中包括創紀錄的降息、對股票的流動性支持以及降低銀行存款準備金率——所有這些都是為了「增加貸款並減少貸款」。現有的貸款負擔。
The crypto exchange argues that while the labor market is showing signs of softening, the US economy remains resilient.
該加密貨幣交易所認為,雖然勞動市場顯示出疲軟的跡象,但美國經濟仍具有彈性。
“2Q24 GDP figures have come in above expectations at 3.0% (vs a median 2.9% Bloomberg survey estimate), reaffirming our view that near-term recession risks remain low.”
「2024 年第二季 GDP 數據超出預期,達到 3.0%(彭博調查預估中位數為 2.9%),再次證實了我們的觀點,即近期衰退風險仍然較低。”
Coinbase also notes that crypto and the stock market have been moving in tandem as of late, indicating that Bitcoin and the rest of the digital asset market will follow the S&P 500’s march to new record highs.
Coinbase 也指出,加密貨幣和股市最近一直在同步發展,這表明比特幣和其他數位資產市場將跟隨標準普爾 500 指數創下新的歷史高點。
“The correlation between crypto and stock markets has been high lately, close to 50%, driven by global easing campaigns in the US and China… Overall, key metrics indicate a robust market. Funding rates are stable and open interest is near average six-month levels. Taken together, it suggests the market is well positioned to head into what is typically a good month for crypto with BTC up eight of the last 10 Octobers.”
「在美國和中國的全球寬鬆政策的推動下,加密貨幣和股票市場之間的相關性最近一直很高,接近 50%……總體而言,關鍵指標表明市場強勁。資金利率穩定,未平倉合約接近六個月平均。總而言之,這表明市場處於有利位置,即將進入加密貨幣的典型好月份,比特幣在過去 10 個月中有 8 個月上漲。
At time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $65,846.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣價格為 65,846 美元。
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