我們對Coinbase Global的收入的看法

正如第四季度令人印象深刻的交易收入結果所示，Coinbase的USDC業務在2024年是一個重要的成功故事。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

As shown by impressive trading revenue results in the fourth quarter, Coinbase’s USDC business was a major success story in 2024.

正如第四季度令人印象深刻的交易收入結果所示，Coinbase的USDC業務在2024年是一個重要的成功故事。

Recovering from its Silicon Valley Bank lows, the stable coin’s market capitalization has set new highs, taking market share from its closest rival, Tether.

從矽谷銀行的低點中恢復過來，這款穩定的硬幣的市值已經創造了新的高點，從最接近的競爭對手Tether佔據了市場份額。

The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate to $170 per share from $150. Despite the increase, we still see the stock as overvalued, as we think cryptocurrency’s strong performance is causing the market to extrapolate too much growth.

最重要的是：我們將公允價值估計提高到每股170美元的$ 150。儘管有所增加，但我們仍然認為該股票被高估了，因為我們認為加密貨幣的強勁績效正在導致市場推斷出太多的增長。

Coinbase’s largest source of revenue is trading fees, which are assessed as a percentage of the amount being traded on its platform. This ties its long-term revenue growth to the size of the overall cryptocurrency asset class and its market share. Cryptocurrency is still a speculative asset class, and the number of available cryptocurrencies to trade, the space’s eventual market capitalizations, and even its continued existence are still major points of data.

Coinbase的最大收入來源是交易費用，將其評估為其平台上交易金額的百分比。這將其長期收入增長與整體加密貨幣資產類別及其市場份額的規模聯繫在一起。加密貨幣仍然是一種投機性資產類別，可用的加密貨幣數量，該空間最終的市值以及其持續存在的數量仍然是數據的主要點。

Key stats: Despite rapid growth in Coinbase’s interest income the firm is still heavily exposed to cryptocurrency markets. More than 60% of Coinbase’s revenue in 2024 was transactional.Coinbase Global Stock Price

關鍵統計數據：儘管Coinbase的利息收入迅速增長，該公司仍在嚴重暴露於加密貨幣市場。 Coinbase在2024年收入的60％以上是交易。

Fair Value Estimate for Coinbase

公允價值估計

With its 1-star rating, we believe Coinbase’s stock is significantly overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $170 per share. Our fair value estimate depends heavily on trading volume assumptions, the rate we expect Coinbase’s trading fees to compress over time, and interest income projections from Coinbase’s partnership with Circle for the stablecoin USDC.

憑藉其1星級評級，我們認為Coinbase的股票與我們每股170美元的長期公允價值估算值相比，被高估了。我們的公允價值估算在很大程度上取決於交易量假設，我們期望Coinbase的交易費用隨著時間的推移壓縮的利率以及Coinbase與Circle的合作夥伴關係的利息收入預測。

Coinbase’s largest source of revenue is trading fees, which are assessed as a percentage of the amount being traded on its platform. This ties its long-term revenue growth to the size of the overall cryptocurrency asset class and its market share. Cryptocurrency is still a speculative asset class, and the number of available cryptocurrencies to trade, the space’s eventual market capitalizations, and even its continued existence are still major unknowns.

Coinbase的最大收入來源是交易費用，將其評估為其平台上交易金額的百分比。這將其長期收入增長與整體加密貨幣資產類別及其市場份額的規模聯繫在一起。加密貨幣仍然是投機性資產類別，可用的加密貨幣數量，該空間最終的市值以及其持續存在的貿易數量仍然是主要未知數。

Read more about Coinbase Global’s fair value estimate.Coinbase Global Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

閱讀有關Coinbase Global的公允價值估算的更多信息。CoinbaseGlobal股票與晨星公允價值估算

Economic Moat Rating

經濟護城河評級

In our view, Coinbase has no economic moat despite being the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. Coinbase has carved out a strong place by positioning itself as a reliable and compliant place to buy and sell cryptocurrency in an industry filled with risk, weak security practices, and spotty regulatory enforcement. This has let it charge fees higher than many peers while building a large pool of liquidity on its platform. The company’s reputational advantages have only grown in recent years, following the collapse of one of its largest rivals, FTX, due to financial fraud. While we expect fee compression in the long term, recent events will likely allow Coinbase to continue to charge a premium in the immediate future.

我們認為，儘管是美國領先的加密貨幣交流，但Coinbase沒有經濟護城河。 Coinbase通過將自己定位為一個可靠且合規的地方來買賣加密貨幣，在充滿風險，疲軟的安全慣例和占有監管執法的行業中，可以脫穎而出。這使它收取的費用比許多同行的費用高，同時在其平台上建立大量的流動性。由於財務欺詐，該公司最大的競爭對手之一FTX崩潰後，該公司的聲譽優勢僅在近年來增長。儘管我們預計從長遠來看收費壓縮，但最近的事件可能會使Coinbase在不久的將來繼續收取溢價。

Read more about Coinbase Global’s economic moat.Financial Strength

閱讀有關Coinbase Global的經濟護城河的更多信息。

Coinbase is in a strong financial position, though it is unprofitable and will likely remain so until cryptocurrency market conditions improve. The company ended June 2024 with over $7.2 billion in cash and more than $2.2 billion in cryptocurrency, including over $1 billion in USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar. These assets are held against $4.2 billion in debt.

Coinbase處於強大的財務狀況，儘管這是無利可圖的，並且可能會一直保持這種狀態，直到加密貨幣市場狀況改善為止。該公司於2024年6月結束時，現金超過72億美元，加密貨幣超過22億美元，其中包括超過10億美元的USDC，這是一個固定在美元的加密貨幣。這些資產持有42億美元的債務。

The decision to keep strong cash reserves makes sense, given how volatile the company’s revenue generation can be, and it gives Coinbase room to maneuver during prolonged weak cryptocurrency markets. We think staying relatively unleveraged will be an important step in keeping the company financially secure in the long term.

考慮到公司的收入產生的動盪，保留強大的現金儲備的決定是有道理的，並且在長期弱的加密貨幣市場期間為COINBASE提供了機動的空間。我們認為，從長遠來看，保持相對尚未掌握將是確保公司在財務上的重要一步。

Read more about Coinbase Global’s financial strength.Risk and Uncertainty

閱讀有關Coinbase Global的財務實力的更多信息。風險和不確定性

We give Coinbase a Very High Uncertainty Rating. The firm gets over half its net revenue from trading fees at its exchange business. Fees are charged as a percentage of the underlying assets, creating direct exposure to cryptocurrency prices. In 2022, Coinbase’s revenue fell more than 59% from the prior year as cryptocurrency prices collapsed. This is still a highly speculative area, and the number of active traders on Coinbase’s platform can vary sharply based on market performance. At the moment, this exposure is to the firm’s advantage, but the durability of the current market recovery is a major point of uncertainty. The company also has interest-rate exposure through its participation in USDC, which generates significant interest income.

我們給Coinbase一個非常高的不確定性評級。該公司從交易業務的交易費用中獲得了超過一半的淨收入。費用作為基礎資產的百分比收取，從而直接接觸加密貨幣價格。 2022年，隨著加密貨幣價格崩潰，Coinbase的收入比上一年下降了59％以上。這仍然是一個高度投機的領域，Coinbase平台上的活躍交易者數量可能會根據市場績效而急劇變化。目前，這種接觸對公司的優勢是有利的，但是當前市場回收的耐用性是不確定性的主要點。該公司還通過參與USDC來獲得利率的利率，該公司產生了可觀的利息收入。

There is also a material amount of environmental, social, and governance risk. Coinbase operates with a broad scope. It acts as an asset custodian, broker, and exchange in the cryptocurrency economy. This creates significant potential for conflicts of interest, which could lead to reputational damage or regulatory action. There are also legal and regulatory gray areas in Coinbase’s business. It is possible that some of the assets that trade on its platform could be ruled as unregistered securities forcing the firm to delist them.

還有大量的環境，社會和治理風險。 Coinbase具有廣泛的範圍。它是加密貨幣經濟中的資產保管人，經紀人和交換。這為利益衝突帶來了巨大的潛力，這可能導致聲譽損害或監管行動。 Coinbase業務中也有法律和法規灰色地區。在其平台上進行交易的某些資產可能被裁定為未註冊的證券，迫使公司將其品嚐。

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