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貝萊德的最新報告顯示,過去六個月比特幣與美國股市的相關性非常低。
Investment giant BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) highlighted bitcoin's (BTC) unique properties in its latest report, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency might be considered a “risk-off” asset in the long term.
投資巨頭貝萊德(NYSE:BLK)在其最新報告中強調了比特幣(BTC)的獨特屬性,表明從長遠來看,旗艦加密貨幣可能被視為「避險」資產。
The report, titled "bitcoin as a unique diversifier," was released last week and highlighted four key points.
該報告題為“比特幣作為獨特的多元化工具”,於上週發布,強調了四個關鍵點。
1. Due to its fundamental properties, such as not having a quarterly earnings report or a CEO, bitcoin is fundamentally different from traditional financial assets and must be analyzed in a different way.
1. 由於其基本屬性,例如沒有季度收益報告或首席執行官,比特幣與傳統金融資產有根本不同,必須以不同的方式進行分析。
2. Bitcoin's high volatility is often used to classify it as a “risky” asset, which contributes to the discussion that whether it is a "risk-on" or "risk-off" asset. However, the token could be considered a flight-to-safety option because it is scarce, non-sovereign, and decentralized.
2. 比特幣的高波動性常常被用來將其歸類為「風險」資產,這引發了關於它是「風險偏好」還是「風險規避」資產的討論。然而,該代幣可以被視為一種安全選擇,因為它是稀缺的、非主權的和去中心化的。
3. BlackRock also pointed out that the long-term adoption of bitcoin may come from global instability.
3.貝萊德也指出,比特幣的長期採用可能來自全球不穩定。
Bitcoin's realized volatility continues to trend downwards
比特幣的實際波動率持續呈下降趨勢
As time passes, bitcoin's realized volatility continues to decrease, indicating increased stability. In the early years of bitcoin, its realized volatility used to trade over 200%; however, as the asset matured, so did the volatility.
隨著時間的推移,比特幣的實際波動性持續下降,顯示穩定性增強。在比特幣誕生之初,其實際波動率曾一度超過 200%;然而,隨著資產的成熟,波動性也隨之增加。
Since 2018, realized volatility has not exceeded 100% and is currently at 50%. As realized volatility decreases and liquidity increases through financial instruments such as the spot and futures market, this may bring in more sophisticated investors such as options traders. This seems to be on the horizon with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of physically settled options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF.
自2018年以來,實際波動率從未超過100%,目前為50%。隨著現貨和期貨市場等金融工具的實際波動性下降和流動性增加,這可能會帶來更成熟的投資者,例如選擇交易者。隨著美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准與貝萊德現貨比特幣 ETF 相關的實物結算選擇權,這似乎即將到來。
BlackRock also asked the question: Is bitcoin risk-on or risk-off? While short-term trading may suggest that bitcoin behaves like a risk-on asset, the data reveals a different narrative over a longer time horizon.
貝萊德也提出了一個問題:比特幣是風險規避還是風險規避?雖然短期交易可能表明比特幣的行為就像一種風險資產,但從長期來看,數據揭示了不同的情況。
According to data from bitcoin custody service Unchained, “almost all holders (99%+) are in profit if they held for just three years. All bitcoin holders in this class are in profit if they held for at least 5 years."
根據比特幣託管服務 Unchained 的數據,「幾乎所有持有者(99%+)只要持有三年就能獲利。所有此類比特幣持有者只要持有至少 5 年,就能獲利。
We can see this type of mentality on-chain among investors, where over 65% of the circulating bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for more than one year, according to Glassnode. This trend suggests that many investors tend to hold bitcoin because they believe in its store-of-value narrative and view it as a risk-off asset, even though bitcoin has faced multiple 20% corrections in 2024.
根據 Glassnode 的數據,我們可以在鏈上看到投資者的這種心態,超過 65% 的流通比特幣供應量在一年多的時間內保持不變。這一趨勢表明,許多投資者傾向於持有比特幣,因為他們相信其價值儲存的敘述,並將其視為避險資產,儘管比特幣在 2024 年曾多次面臨 20% 的回調。
BlackRock also showed that bitcoin has a very low correlation to U.S. equities. A graph shows the trailing 6-month S&P 500 correlation with bitcoin; the average correlation is 0.2 since 2015. Sometimes, assets will trade near one-to-one with one another due to external macro factors, most likely in risk-off or liquidity events.
貝萊德也表明,比特幣與美國股市的相關性非常低。圖表顯示了過去 6 個月標準普爾 500 指數與比特幣的相關性;自 2015 年以來,平均相關性為 0.2。
The report notes, “These episodes have been short-term in nature and have failed to produce a clear long-term statistically significant correlation relationship.”
報告指出,“這些事件本質上是短期的,未能產生明確的長期統計顯著相關關係。”
Continuing with the theme of having a long-term time preference, BlackRock noted that bitcoin tends to outperform other risk-on assets after 60 days following a major geopolitical event.
繼續關注長期時間偏好的主題,貝萊德指出,在重大地緣政治事件發生 60 天后,比特幣的表現往往優於其他風險資產。
The U.S.- Iran escalation in 2020 saw bitcoin return 20% after 60 days, outperforming gold and S&P 500. This was also the case for Covid-19, the 2020 U.S. election challenges, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. regional banking crisis and most recently the Yen Carry trade unwind on Aug. 5.
2020 年美國與伊朗的緊張局勢升級,比特幣在 60 天後回報了 20%,表現優於黃金和標準普爾 500 指數。一次是8 月5 日日圓套利交易平倉。
During the recent Yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which was now 53 days ago, major assets experienced declines on the day. However, bitcoin has risen by 22% since then, with gold and the S&P 500 up roughly 11%.
在 8 月 5 日(距今 53 天)最近的日圓套利交易平倉期間,主要資產當天出現下跌。然而,自那時以來,比特幣已上漲 22%,黃金和標準普爾 500 指數上漲約 11%。
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