伊朗和以色列緊張局勢擾亂加密貨幣市場，比特幣本週下跌 8%

根據 Brave New Coin 的比特幣液體指數，比特幣暴跌歸因於伊朗最近對以色列飛彈襲擊後拋售壓力增加，導致比特幣上週下跌 8%。

Recent data from Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index shows that Bitcoin demand has declined following Iran’s missile strikes on Israel, contributing to an 8% drop in the cryptocurrency’s price last week.

Brave New Coin 比特幣流動性指數的最新數據顯示，在伊朗對以色列進行飛彈襲擊後，比特幣需求有所下降，導致上週加密貨幣價格下跌 8%。

On Tuesday, Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to Israeli assaults on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. This escalation in regional tensions has had a direct impact on Bitcoin demand, as highlighted by CryptoQuant data. The Net Taker Volume metric, which indicates the net buying or selling pressure, has seen a substantial decrease since the escalation began.

週二，伊朗向以色列發射了 180 多枚彈道飛彈，以回應以色列對黎巴嫩南部真主黨陣地的攻擊。正如 CryptoQuant 數據所強調的那樣，地區緊張局勢的升級對比特幣需求產生了直接影響。自升級開始以來，顯示淨買進或賣出壓力的淨接受量指標已大幅下降。

“Buying pressure has remained subdued since the Iran strike,” J.A. Maartunn, a CryptoQuant analyst, told The Block in an interview. “The drop in net taker volume by over $150 million signals significant selling pressure, while the fact that it hasn’t exceeded $100 million since Tuesday suggests a lack of strong buying momentum.”

CryptoQuant 分析師 JA Maartunn 在接受 The Block 採訪時表示：“自伊朗襲擊以來，購買壓力一直處於低迷狀態。” 「淨接受量下降超過 1.5 億美元，表明拋售壓力巨大，而自周二以來淨接受量尚未超過 1 億美元，這一事實表明缺乏強勁的購買動力。”

This downturn is not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum also saw a significant decline of 12.60% last week, dropping below the $2,300 mark on October 4, according to Brave New Coin’s Ethereum Liquid Index.

這種低迷不僅限於比特幣。根據 Brave New Coin 的以太坊流動性指數，以太幣上週也大幅下跌 12.60%，於 10 月 4 日跌破 2,300 美元大關。

Market sentiment shifts to neutral

市場情緒轉向中性

Bitwise Head of Research – Europe André Dragosch observed a negative trend in net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges over the past three days, with signs of short-term seller exhaustion, as evidenced by an increase in long Bitcoin futures liquidations — the highest since August 5, when Bitcoin marked its recent bottom.

Bitwise 歐洲研究主管André Dragosch 觀察到，過去三天比特幣現貨交易所的淨買入量呈現負面趨勢，有短期賣家疲憊的跡象，比特幣期貨多頭清算量的增加就證明了這一點——這是自8 月以來的最高水準5 月 5 日，比特幣觸及近期底部。

“Moreover, short-term holders have sent the most bitcoins at a loss to exchanges since the lows in August,” Dragosch said, adding that sentiment has shifted from relatively high to more neutral levels, according to the Bitwise Cryptoasset Sentiment Index.

Dragosch 表示：「此外，自8 月低點以來，短期持有者已將最多的比特幣虧本發送至交易所。」他補充說，根據Bitwise 加密資產情緒指數，市場情緒已從相對較高的水平轉向更為中性的層次。

Adding to the complexity, Glassnode data shows that the illiquid supply of Bitcoin recently reached an all-time high, while the highly liquid and liquid supply dropped to a year-to-date low, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics, with long-term holders largely sitting on their hands despite the recent volatility.

雪上加霜的是，Glassnode 數據顯示，比特幣的非流動性供應量最近達到了歷史最高水平，而高流動性和流動性供應量則降至今年以來的最低點，這表明市場動態發生了重大轉變，長期來看儘管最近出現波動，但長期持有者大部分仍按兵不動。

Bitwise Research Analyst-Europe Ayush Tripathi noted an increase in the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term investors — those who have held their Bitcoin for at least 155 days — despite the recent price decline. Since the beginning of October, the supply held by these investors has risen, suggesting that while short-term demand has weakened, there is still confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term investment.

Bitwise 歐洲研究分析師 Ayush Tripathi 指出，儘管近期價格下跌，但長期投資者（持有比特幣至少 155 天的投資者）持有的比特幣供應量增加。自10月初以來，這些投資者持有的供應量有所增加，這表明雖然短期需求有所減弱，但人們仍然對比特幣作為長期投資充滿信心。

“The increase in the supply of bitcoin held by long-term holders since the beginning of October suggests that while short-term demand has weakened, there is still confidence in bitcoin as a long-term investment,” said Tripathi.

Tripathi 表示：“自 10 月初以來，長期持有者持有的比特幣供應量有所增加，這表明雖然短期需求有所減弱，但人們仍然對比特幣作為長期投資充滿信心。”

QCP Capital sees temporary downturn

QCP Capital 面臨暫時低迷

Despite the current challenges, analysts at QCP Capital believe the downturn in Bitcoin demand is temporary. They highlighted the strong correlation between the performance of cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks, predicting that as equities recover, so will the cryptocurrency markets.

儘管目前面臨挑戰，但 QCP Capital 分析師認為，比特幣需求的下滑是暫時的。他們強調了加密貨幣表現與美國股市之間的密切相關性，並預測隨著股市復甦，加密貨幣市場也將復甦。

“Macroeconomic factors, particularly in the U.S., are currently driving the price of risk assets,” the analysts said, pointing to the latest U.S. ADP National Employment report, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth in September, as an indication of labor market strength that could push the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish stance on interest rates.

分析師表示，「宏觀經濟因素，尤其是美國的宏觀經濟因素，目前正在推動風險資產的價格。」他們指出，最新的美國ADP 全國就業報告顯示，9 月就業成長強於預期，這表明了勞動力的成長。

“The ADP payroll report beat expectations, and tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report will be critical in confirming a strong U.S. labor market,” the QCP Capital analysts added. “A combination of expected rate cuts and labor strength could boost risk assets.”

QCP Capital 分析師補充道：“ADP 就業報告超出預期，明天的非農就業報告對於確認美國勞動力市場強勁至關重要。” “預期降息和勞動力實力的結合可能會提振風險資產。”

Market hesitates as geopolitical tensions rise

地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，市場猶豫不決

In cryptocurrency market trading on Thursday, investors remained cautious as they awaited a potential Israeli response to Iran’s missile strikes. This geopolitics has heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to reduced trading volumes and heightened volatility in the crypto markets.

在周四的加密貨幣市場交易中，投資者保持謹慎，等待以色列對伊朗飛彈襲擊的潛在反應。這種地緣政治加劇了投資者的風險厭惡情緒，導致加密貨幣市場交易量減少和波動加劇。

Bitcoin hovered just above the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum dropped below $2,300. This cautious sentiment is further reflected in the subdued Net Taker Volume, which has not exceeded $100 million since the escalation in tensions on Tuesday. This lack of strong buying momentum underscores the market’s hesitancy to commit to large investments as geopolitical instability persists.

比特幣徘徊在 6 萬美元大關上方，而以太幣則跌破 2,300 美元。這種謹慎情緒進一步反映在淨接受量的低迷中，自周二緊張局勢升級以來，淨接受量尚未超過 1 億美元。由於地緣政治不穩定持續存在，缺乏強勁的購買動力凸顯了市場對大規模投資的猶豫不決。

However, opportunities may arise for long-term holders and institutional investors to accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, anticipating a rebound once the geopolitical landscape stabilizes. Short-term volatility is likely to persist as the market absorbs the impact of ongoing conflicts and adjusts to changing economic policies.

然而，長期持有者和機構投資者可能會出現以較低價格累積比特幣的機會，預計一旦地緣政治格局穩定，比特幣就會反彈。隨著市場吸收持續衝突的影響並適應不斷變化的經濟政策，短期波動可能會持續。