比特幣因監管樂觀而上漲，Vaneck 預測將創下歷史新高

Vaneck 分析師 Nathan Frankovitz 和 Matthew Sigel 認為，比特幣價格飆升至歷史新高反映了數位資產的變革時刻

VanEck analysts are bullish on bitcoin, predicting more all-time highs fueled by favorable regulatory developments.

VanEck 分析師看好比特幣，預計在有利的監管發展推動下，比特幣將創下歷史新高。

According to the firm's mid-November analysis, bitcoin's recent price surge is fueled by investor optimism over policy shifts following President-elect Donald Trump's victory. On election night, bitcoin surged nearly 9% to reach $75,000 as markets reacted to Trump's campaign promises to eliminate the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) “regulation-by-enforcement” approach and pave the way for crypto-friendly legislation.

根據該公司 11 月中旬的分析，比特幣最近的價格飆升是由於投資者對當選總統唐納德·川普獲勝後政策轉變的樂觀情緒所推動的。選舉之夜，比特幣飆升近9%，達到75,000 美元，市場對川普的競選承諾做出反應，承諾取消美國證券交易委員會(SEC) 的「強制監管」方法，並為加密貨幣友善立法鋪平道路。

“Trump has already begun appointing pro-crypto figures throughout the executive branch, while the Republican party now boasts a unified government, heightening the potential for supportive legislation,” said Frankovitz and Sigel. “Such legislation includes proposals like creating a national Bitcoin reserve — the odds of which are trading at 34% on Polymarket as of November 19th — and rewriting crypto market structure and stablecoin draft legislation.”

弗蘭科維茨和西格爾表示：“川普已經開始在整個行政部門任命支持加密貨幣的人物，而共和黨現在擁有一個統一的政府，這增強了支持性立法的潛力。” 「此類立法包括建立國家比特幣儲備等提案（截至 11 月 19 日，其在 Polymarket 交易的可能性為 34%）以及重寫加密貨幣市場結構和穩定幣立法草案。”

The analysts also compared the current rally to the post-2020 election rally, during which bitcoin's price more than doubled by year-end, ultimately achieving a 137% gain in 2021. VanEck predicts a similar trajectory this cycle, citing key market indicators.

分析師還將當前的漲勢與2020 年大選後的漲勢進行了比較，當時比特幣的價格到年底增長了一倍以上，最終在2021 年實現了137% 的漲幅。 ，本輪週期將出現類似的軌跡。

For instance, bitcoin's dominance, a measure of its market share relative to all cryptocurrencies, reached 59% in November, its highest level since March 2021, indicating renewed confidence in the asset.

例如，比特幣的主導地位（衡量其相對於所有加密貨幣的市場份額的指標）在 11 月達到 59%，這是自 2021 年 3 月以來的最高水平，表明人們對該資產的信心重拾。

VanEck's research also highlighted robust onchain metrics. Bitcoin's network activity remained resilient, with daily transactions approaching all-time highs and transfer volumes increasing by 118% month-over-month. Despite a 15% decline in transaction counts, larger payloads resulted in record-high average transaction sizes.

VanEck 的研究也強調了穩健的鏈上指標。比特幣的網路活動保持彈性，每日交易量接近歷史新高，轉帳量較上季成長 118%。儘管交易數量下降了 15%，但更大的有效負載導致平均交易規模創歷史新高。

The report further added: “With bitcoin's price trading at all-time highs, approximately 99% of all bitcoin addresses are currently profitable.”

該報告進一步補充說：“隨著比特幣的價格交易處於歷史高位，目前大約 99% 的比特幣地址都是盈利的。”

While optimistic about bitcoin's near-term performance, Frankovitz and Sigel cautioned against potential overheating. Their analysis of perpetual futures funding rates, a key indicator of market sentiment, showed that sustained high rates often coincide with cycle tops.

雖然弗蘭科維茨和西格爾對比特幣的近期表現持樂觀態度，但他們對潛在的過熱提出了警告。他們對永續期貨融資利率（市場情緒的關鍵指標）的分析表明，持續的高利率往往與週期頂部同時發生。

As of mid-November, funding rates approached levels historically linked to short-term gains but signaled diminishing returns over longer time horizons. Bitcoin's unrealized profit metrics further supported the bullish outlook.

截至 11 月中旬，融資利率接近與短期收益相關的歷史水平，但顯示長期來看回報會遞減。比特幣的未實現利潤指標進一步支持了看漲前景。

VanEck noted that relative unrealized profits, a measure of paper gains, were within a range typically associated with the middle stages of bull markets. However, should these levels approach historical peaks, it could signal an increased risk of market corrections as profit-taking accelerates.

VanEck 指出，相對未實現利潤（衡量帳面收益的指標）處於通常與牛市中期相關的範圍內。然而，如果這些水平接近歷史峰值，則可能預示著隨著獲利回吐的加速，市場調整的風險增加。

“Historically, elevated 30-day moving average (DMA) RUP levels — especially above 0.60 and 0.70 — indicate strong market sentiment and potential overheating,” VanEck's report noted.

VanEck 的報告指出：“從歷史上看，30 日移動平均線 (DMA) RUP 水平升高——尤其是高於 0.60 和 0.70——表明市場情緒強勁，並可能出現過熱。”

Retail interest also showed signs of recovery. According to VanEck, search term popularity for “crypto” remained well below previous bull market peaks, suggesting that the current rally could continue to grow before reaching speculative excess.

零售興趣也顯示出復甦的跡象。 VanEck 表示，「加密貨幣」的搜尋字詞受歡迎程度仍遠低於先前牛市的峰值，這表明當前的漲勢可能會繼續增長，然後達到投機過度。

Meanwhile, VanEck highlighted increased public attention, with trading platform engagement, such as the Coinbase app surging to a top-10 rank.

同時，VanEck 強調了公眾關注度的增加，Coinbase 應用程式等交易平台的參與度飆升至前十名。

VanEck highlighted the crucial role of the regulatory environment in shaping bitcoin's future. The firm anticipates that Trump's administration will repeal restrictive measures like the SEC's accounting bulletin and pave the way for broader adoption by encouraging banks to offer crypto custody solutions.

VanEck 強調了監管環境在塑造比特幣未來方面的關鍵作用。該公司預計川普政府將廢除美國證券交易委員會會計公告等限制性措施，並鼓勵銀行提供加密託管解決方案，為更廣泛採用鋪平道路。

Moreover, legislation enabling stablecoin issuance by state-chartered banks could bolster U.S. dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.

此外，允許國有銀行發行穩定幣的立法可能會鞏固美國在數位資產生態系統中的主導地位。