投資人押注川普當選，比特幣漲至歷史新高

根據 Coin Metrics 的數據，旗艦加密貨幣的價格觸及創紀錄的 75,000 美元。

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $75,000 on Tuesday evening as investors bet on former President Donald Trump gaining an edge in the U.S. election.

由於投資者押注前總統唐納德·川普在美國大選中獲得優勢，比特幣週二晚間觸及 75,000 美元的歷史新高。

Bitcoin was last trading up 10% in the past 24 hours at $74,315.91, according to Coin Metrics. It hit its previous record high of $73,797.68 on March 14 and traded in a narrow range below $70,000 for most of the year since then.

根據 Coin Metrics 的數據，比特幣在過去 24 小時內上漲 10%，至 74,315.91 美元。該股於 3 月 14 日創下歷史新高 73,797.68 美元，此後一年內大部分時間都在 70,000 美元以下的窄幅區間內交易。

The price of bitcoin increased on Tuesday as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, though none of the major swing states had yet been called by NBC News.

週二，隨著川普在選舉人團選舉中領先，比特幣價格上漲，儘管 NBC 新聞尚未對主要搖擺州進行投票。

Coinbase rose 3% in after hours trading, while MicroStrategy advanced 4%.

Coinbase 在盤後交易中上漲 3%，而 MicroStrategy 則上漲 4%。

Investors expect bitcoin trading to be choppy until a clear winner is declared. A victory for Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to bring risk of downside moves to the price of bitcoin, while traders anticipate a bump in price in the event of a win by former President Donald Trump.

投資者預計，在宣布明顯的贏家之前，比特幣交易將會波動。副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的勝利預計將對比特幣價格帶來下行風險，而交易員預計，如果前總統川普獲勝，比特幣價格將會上漲。

"The election is having a massive influence on crypto," said Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. "Expect bitcoin – and crypto more broadly – to be choppy in the days ahead … until we have definitive election results."

Bitwise 資產管理公司研究主管 Ryan Rasmussen 表示：“這次選舉對加密貨幣產生了巨大影響。” “預計比特幣——以及更廣泛的加密貨幣——在未來幾天會出現波動……直到我們得到明確的選舉結果。”

"If Trump wins, I believe we'll see new all-time highs," Rasmussen added. "If Harris wins, I expect a decent short-term sell-off, with prices taking a month or two to recover. But eventually, either way, I think we go higher."

「如果川普獲勝，我相信我們將看到新的歷史高點，」拉斯穆森補充道。 “如果哈里斯獲勝，我預計短期內會出現相當大的拋售，價格需要一兩個月才能恢復。但最終，無論哪種方式，我認為我們都會走高。”

In the 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections, bitcoin saw returns of roughly 87%, 44% and 145% in the 90 days following election day, respectively. That's in part because election years happen to fall on Bitcoin halving years, when the supply of the cryptocurrency ratchets downward. Post election returns have also tended to align with major Federal Reserve policy shifts. This year, the market is looking forward to further interest rate reductions.

在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年的選舉中，比特幣在選舉日後 90 天內的回報率分別約為 87%、44% 和 145%。部分原因是選舉年恰逢比特幣減半年，此時加密貨幣的供應量逐漸下降。選舉後的回報也往往與聯準會的重大政策轉變保持一致。今年，市場期待進一步降息。

At just below $70,000, bitcoin has been trading at its fair value price heading into election day, according to CryptoQuant. That means that if the election proves to be a positive catalyst in the coming days, bitcoin can rally and is poised to establish a new record, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno said.

根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，在選舉日之前，比特幣的交易價格略低於 7 萬美元。 CryptoQuant 分析師 Julio Moreno 表示，這意味著如果選舉在未來幾天被證明是一個積極的催化劑，比特幣可能會反彈並有望創下新紀錄。

"For now, everyone we've spoken to is keeping their powder dry," said James Davies, CEO at crypto futures and options trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. "I've heard from numerous leading market makers and traders and can say with conviction that almost everyone is set up to react. They don't even know which way markets will go based on [the] result. There's likely to be massive short-term volatility whichever outcome."

加密貨幣期貨和選擇權交易平台 Crypto Valley Exchange 執行長 James Davies 表示：“目前，我們採訪過的每個人都保持著警惕。” 「我從眾多領先的做市商和交易員那裡聽說過，並且可以確信地說，幾乎每個人都準備好做出反應。他們甚至不知道市場將根據結果走向何方。可能會出現大量空頭-期限波動，無論結果如何。

This year's presidential election has been called the most important one in the crypto industry's lifetime. Many view a Harris win as a threat to crypto, the extent of which has been debated throughout this election cycle. Trump, on the other hand, is seen by many as a force for good in the industry after he presented himself earlier this year as the pro-crypto candidate and has been courting the industry more directly than Harris has.

今年的總統選舉被稱為加密貨幣產業一生中最重要的一次。許多人認為哈里斯的勝利是對加密貨幣的威脅，其程度在整個選舉週期中一直存在爭議。另一方面，川普在今年稍早以支持加密貨幣的候選人身份出現後，被許多人視為該行業的一股正義力量，並且一直比哈里斯更直接地討好該行業。

Many voters are concerned about the state of the government deficit, which rose 8% in the 2024 fiscal year to $1.8 trillion, and increased tax cuts promised by both candidates. Bitcoin, like gold, is seen by many investors as a hedge against the potential for fiscal and monetary policy that combine to reduce the value of the dollar and lift inflation.

許多選民擔心政府赤字狀況（2024 財年政府赤字增加 8%，達到 1.8 兆美元），以及兩位候選人承諾的加強減稅力度。與黃金一樣，比特幣被許多投資者視為對沖財政和貨幣政策潛力的對沖工具，財政和貨幣政策結合起來會降低美元價值並推高通膨。