比特幣可能取代黃金

你不可能一直都是對的。我決定用以太幣而不是比特幣來玩這個加密週期，前提是以太幣比 BTC 更辣

Bitcoin may be taking the place of gold. You can’t be right all the time. I decided to play this crypto cycle with ether not bitcoin on the premise that Eth is spicier than BTC and would run further faster. The idea was bitcoin $100,000-plus and ether $10,000-plus.

比特幣可能會取代黃金。你不可能一直都是對的。我決定用以太幣而不是比特幣來玩這個加密週期，前提是以太幣比比特幣更辣並且運行得更快。這個想法是比特幣超過 10 萬美元，以太幣超過 1 萬美元。

I suppose, like a true Brit, I mustn’t grumble because I did get my ether much cheaper than even these depressed levels.

我想，就像一個真正的英國人一樣，我不能抱怨，因為我的以太幣確實比這些低迷的水平便宜得多。

The last leg of the hoped-for bitcoin boom to $100,000 has not happened, though the dream lives on – or perhaps now instead, the prospect of a geopolitical nightmare of a scenario is in view. A terrible geopolitical event that makes bitcoin dash to above $100,000 because a lot of rich/desperate people need to run for the hills with flight capital, seems possible because:

儘管夢想仍在繼續，但人們所期待的比特幣繁榮達到 10 萬美元的最後階段並未發生——或者也許現在，地緣政治噩夢的前景就在眼前。一場可怕的地緣政治事件似乎有可能發生，因為許多富人/絕望的人需要帶著資本逃亡，導致比特幣飆升至 10 萬美元以上，因為：

1. It is already building every day in the news.

1.它已經每天都在新聞中出現。

2. Gold is on the run foreshadowing that possibility.

2. 黃金的上漲預示著這種可能性。

This in my mind is now the only credible prospect for the final leg up and is not exactly a long shot. I hope it will not come to pass, but gold and bitcoin will provide a very strong advance warning. Prices often run well ahead of the news, something we seem to see in the decision of the Federal Reserve, for example. Its every word and punctuation is examined by armies of analysts so it’s not surprising price moves preempt the news. For example, you can be assured that plenty of individuals would load up on bitcoin and gold if their warring side looked like it was in big trouble, and no one in a position to do so is going to leave it until the last minute.

在我看來，這是最後一站唯一可信的前景，前景也不遙遠。我希望這不會成為現實，但黃金和比特幣將提供非常強烈的預警。價格往往遠遠領先於新聞消息，例如，我們似乎在聯準會的決定中看到了這一點。它的每一個單字和標點符號都會經過大量分析師的檢查，因此價格走勢先於新聞報道也就不足為奇了。例如，你可以放心，如果交戰一方看起來遇到了大麻煩，很多人都會大量購買比特幣和黃金，而且沒有人有能力這樣做，直到最後一刻才會放棄。

Thankfully, this is still a “what if” rather than a certainty and meanwhile further down the food chain from bitcoin and ether is struggling. Here is the bitcoin vs. ether chart:

值得慶幸的是，這仍然是一個「假設」而不是確定的情況，同時比特幣和以太幣的食物鏈下游正在苦苦掙扎。這是比特幣與以太幣的圖表：

The bitcoin chart compared with the ethereum chart

比特幣圖表與以太坊圖表對比

Samsung’s Update Mistake—Bad News For Millions Of Galaxy Phone Owners

三星的更新錯誤——對數百萬 Galaxy 手機用戶來說是個壞消息

Google Play Store Warning—Do Not Install These Apps On Your Phone

Google Play 商店警告 - 請勿在手機上安裝這些應用程式

Netflix’s Best New Horror Movie Is An Instant Classic

Netflix 最佳新恐怖電影瞬間成為經典

To me the calculus has simplified. Bitcoin remains the only true crypto. It is not “run” by anyone and almost everything else is, and ether has gone away from those Satoshi principles into the realm of technical and governance oligarchy. Human intervention, especially in matters financial, is not known to end well for the masses and we have certainly seen enough unhappy outcomes with centralized crypto thus far. I like a crypto that can’t be fiddled with or downright fiddled and you now have to look really hard to find a crypto where their isn’t a Wizard of Oz pulling levers behind the curtain.

對我來說，微積分已經簡化了。比特幣仍然是唯一真正的加密貨幣。它不是由任何人「運行」的，幾乎所有其他東西都是由任何人「運行」的，以太幣已經脫離了中本聰的原則，進入了技術和治理寡頭的領域。人為幹預，尤其是在金融問題上，對於大眾來說並不會有好的結果，到目前為止，我們確實已經看到了中心化加密貨幣帶來的不愉快的結果。我喜歡一種不能被擺弄或完全被擺弄的加密貨幣，而你現在必須非常努力地尋找一種加密貨幣，它不是綠野仙蹤在幕後拉動槓桿。

The rolling development of ether puts it at risk with every modification. Tweaks can wreck the business model. The laws of unintended consequences, that of Murphy, Finagle, O’Toole’s and Waldo’s cannot be ignored or underestimated. Breaking the business model is easily done, especially when you carry dogma along with you. Let me give you an example of a dangerous ether dogma. Monetary deflation is good and adds value. Sounds obvious doesn’t it…

以太的滾動發展使其每一次修改都面臨風險。調整可能會破壞商業模式。墨菲、費納格爾、奧圖爾和沃爾多的意外後果定律不容忽視或低估。打破商業模式很容易，尤其是當你隨身攜帶教條時。讓我舉一個危險的以太教條的例子。貨幣通貨緊縮是好事，可以增加價值。聽起來很明顯不是嗎…

But how about Gresham’s Law? “Bad money drives out good.” That means inflated money kills the usage of deflationary or stable money. That’s not good news for a deflationary Ethereum.

但格雷欣法則又如何呢？ “劣幣驅逐良幣。”這意味著通貨膨脹的貨幣會扼殺通貨緊縮或穩定貨幣的使用。對於通貨緊縮的以太坊來說，這不是好消息。

No, no, no, crypto denizens cry, Gresham is wrong, good money, i.e. bitcoin drives out bad, i.e. dollars. That is a brave claim and when you see the success of stablecoins in term of crypto market cap, you can see bad money definitely has its charms even in the realm of crypto’s hard money posturing.

不，不，不，加密貨幣居民哭了，格雷沙姆錯了，好錢，即比特幣驅逐了壞錢，即美元。這是一個勇敢的主張，當你看到穩定幣在加密貨幣市值方面取得的成功時，你會發現，即使在加密貨幣的硬通貨姿態中，劣幣也絕對有其魅力。

So Ethereum’s developers’ potentially flawed attempt at making ether deflationary may just have been a blunder and the reason for its less than excellent performance recently. Meanwhile, inflationary solana has galloped up the market cap charts.

因此，以太坊開發者試圖讓以太幣通貨緊縮的潛在缺陷可能只是一個錯誤，也是最近表現不佳的原因。與此同時，通膨的索拉納已經在市值排行榜上飆升。

In any event, right or wrong, the great boot of government is bearing down on crypto and it is clear the fun is gone, and with it a lot of the benefits and advantages that crypto had over fiat.

無論如何，無論對錯，政府的大力支持都在對加密貨幣施加壓力，很明顯，加密貨幣的樂趣已經消失，加密貨幣相對於法定貨幣的許多好處和優勢也隨之消失。

Want to make a new crypto, or a new crypto thingamabob? Better find a lot of money to get lawyers to tell you you can’t do it without inviting the wrath of all sorts of global regulators and regulations. In the previous booms, you just needed to get coding and buy a plane ticket to the Caribbean.

想要製作一個新的加密貨幣，或是一個新的加密貨幣東西嗎？最好找到很多錢讓律師告訴你，如果不招致各種全球監管機構和法規的憤怒，你就無法做到這一點。在之前的繁榮時期，你只需要編碼並購買一張飛往加勒比海的機票。

So while the probability of the next leg up seems distant the bottom line is, if something wicked this way comes, up will go crypto, if not, down it will go into the new cycle’s crypto winter.

因此，雖然下一輪上漲的可能性似乎很遙遠，但底線是，如果出現這種邪惡的情況，加密貨幣就會上漲，如果沒有，就會下跌，進入新周期的加密貨幣冬天。

If gold wasn’t crying havoc, I’d say that the crypto winter was here, but as gold is frighteningly strong, I’m not ready to sell up my Eth

如果黃金沒有大肆破壞，我會說加密冬天已經到來，但由於黃金非常堅挺，我還不准備賣掉我的以太坊