比特幣低於$ 90000，許多聲音將這種下降歸因於最近在Bybit Exchange的史詩般的盜竊事件

昨天，整個市場再次遇到寒意，比特幣低於90,000美元。許多聲音將這種下降歸因於最近在Bybit Exchange的史詩般的盜竊事件。

Yesterday, the entire market encountered a chill again, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000. Many voices attribute this decline to the recent epic theft incident at the Bybit exchange. Although the exchange's efforts and various collaborations have led to a relatively proper handling of the incident, people are concerned that the stolen ETH will create significant selling pressure on the market.

昨天，整個市場再次遇到寒意，比特幣低於90,000美元。許多聲音將這種下降歸因於最近在Bybit Exchange的史詩般的盜竊事件。儘管交流的努力和各種合作導致了對事件的相對適當的處理，但人們擔心被盜的ETH將在市場上造成巨大的銷售壓力。

In fact, whether this selling pressure actually occurs or not, this incident will certainly have a considerable impact on market sentiment. Additionally, some recently released data from the U.S. fell short of expectations, and the potential negative impacts of Trump's latest policies, among other factors, will also exert some pressure on the crypto market.

實際上，無論是否實際發生這種銷售壓力，這一事件肯定會對市場情緒產生重大影響。此外，一些最近發布的美國數據尚未達到預期，特朗普最新政策的潛在負面影響以及其他因素也將對加密貨幣市場施加一些壓力。

The current crypto market has become like a "startled bird," where any external or internal disturbance could lead to a market downturn.

當前的加密貨幣市場已經變得像“嚇了一鳥”，任何外部或內部干擾都可能導致市場衰退。

Aside from these matters, there is another issue that has recently garnered significant attention: Pump.fun is set to launch its own AMM exchange. Once this news broke, the token of the Raydium exchange, which is heavily reliant on Solana meme coins, also faced a significant impact.

除了這些問題，還有另一個問題最近引起了人們的重大關注：pump.fun將推出自己的AMM交易所。一旦這一消息破裂，Raydium Exchange的代幣依賴於Solana Meme Coins，也面臨著重大影響。

On the surface, this seems like Pump.fun doesn't want to let profits flow to outsiders; since the exchange has earned such substantial profits, why not do it myself? However, it feels more like an escalation of internal competition, where the profits from issuing meme coins are becoming increasingly thin, leading project parties to be less willing to share benefits with other collaborators in the ecosystem.

從表面上看，這似乎是泵。FUN不想讓利潤流向外部人。由於交易所獲得瞭如此豐厚的利潤，為什麼不自己做呢？但是，感覺更像是內部競爭的升級，在這種競爭中，發行模因硬幣的利潤變得越來越薄，領導項目政黨不太願意與生態系統中的其他合作者分享福利。

In the past, such occurrences typically happened during deep bear markets. We have seen many such examples in the Ethereum ecosystem in 2022 and 2023. Although I believe that we have been in a bear market throughout this round of trends, the fact that internal competition has started again at this stage is somewhat surprising.

過去，這種情況通常發生在深熊市。我們已經在2022年和2023年的以太坊生態系統中看到了許多這樣的例子。儘管我相信我們在這一輪趨勢中一直處於熊市，但在現階段再次開始內部競爭這一事實令人驚訝。

This also indicates that there currently seems to be no sub-sector in the entire ecosystem that can attract external attention, hence the emergence of internal competition.

這也表明，當前在整個生態系統中似乎沒有子行業可以吸引外部注意力，因此內部競爭的出現。

Considering all these conditions and reflecting on the various experiences we've had throughout this round of trends, one phenomenon is becoming increasingly evident: Despite Bitcoin still appearing to be the leader of the entire market and driving the trend of the crypto ecosystem, it is becoming increasingly unable to stand alone.

考慮到所有這些條件，並反思我們在整個趨勢中所擁有的各種經驗，但一種現象越來越明顯：儘管比特幣似乎仍然是整個市場的領導者，並推動了加密生態系統的趨勢，但它變得越來越無法獨自一人。

In the past, when the entire ecosystem faced various shocks, other coins would fall, but Bitcoin could still withstand the impact; now, Bitcoin is also struggling to bear these shocks. This increasingly clearly indicates that without the prosperity of the entire ecosystem, Bitcoin's own price level is also unstable.

過去，當整個生態系統面臨各種衝擊時，其他硬幣將會掉落，但比特幣仍然可以承受影響。現在，比特幣也在努力承受這些衝擊。這越來越清楚地表明，如果沒有整個生態系統的繁榮，比特幣自己的價格水平也不穩定。

For the entire ecosystem to experience a broad rise, there must be a true explosion of applications. Without technological, model, and business innovations, the advancement of the entire crypto ecosystem can only rely on Bitcoin's "digital gold" concept for support. However, this concept cannot sustain the ecosystem in the long term, nor can it support Bitcoin's price level for an extended period.

為了使整個生態系統經歷廣泛的上升，必須對應用進行真正的爆炸。如果沒有技術，模型和業務創新，整個加密生態系統的進步只能依靠比特幣的“數字黃金”概念來獲得支持。但是，從長遠來看，這個概念無法維持生態系統，也無法在長期內支持比特幣的價格水平。

Since Bitcoin broke through $100,000 in early December last year, it has hovered around that level. Various positive news that followed has almost failed to push its price higher, but any negative news from within or outside the ecosystem could potentially drop Bitcoin's price below $100,000 at any time.

自去年12月上旬比特幣破產以來，它已經徘徊在該水平上。隨後的各種積極新聞幾乎無法將其價格提高提高，但是任何來自生態系統內部或之外的負面消息可能會隨時將比特幣的價格下降到100,000美元以下。

Therefore, I believe that if the crypto ecosystem does not experience another explosion in the future, even if policies like Bitcoin becoming a national reserve in the U.S. are truly implemented, the upside potential for Bitcoin in this round of trends will be very limited. If any further negative information arises from external or internal sources, Bitcoin's price may even continue to decline.

因此，我相信，即使像比特幣這樣的政策成為美國國家儲備的政策確實實施了，即使將來的加密生態系統不會在將來遭受另一場爆炸式爆炸，但在這一輪趨勢中，比特幣的上漲潛力將非常有限。如果外部或內部來源產生了任何進一步的負面信息，比特幣的價格甚至可能會繼續下降。

I once speculated that this round of trends might peak between March and August, but looking at it now, unless a miracle occurs within the ecosystem, otherwise, under the current circumstances, even if there is a peak, it will likely be a lackluster trend.

我曾經猜測，這一輪趨勢可能在3月至8月之間達到頂峰，但是現在看它，除非生態系統內發生奇蹟，否則在當前情況下，即使有峰值，也可能是一個平淡無奇的趨勢。