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全球最大的加密貨幣本月上漲了 10% 以上,打破了這段時期價格通常下跌的歷史趨勢。
Bitcoin is set for one of its best monthly performances in years, defying a historical trend that usually sees prices decline during this time.
比特幣將迎來多年來最好的月度表現之一,這違背了這一時期價格通常下跌的歷史趨勢。
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has risen over 10% this month, helped by a wave of global interest rate cuts, notably from the US Federal Reserve, that are boosting market confidence.
由於全球降息浪潮(尤其是聯準會的降息浪潮),全球最大的加密貨幣本月上漲了 10% 以上,這提振了市場信心。
Bitcoin is trading at around $65,334 on recent Friday, up 1.2% on the day. It has risen 56% so far this year, aided by heavy inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, but is still below a peak of $73,798 hit in March.
最近週五,比特幣交易價格約為 65,334 美元,當日上漲 1.2%。由於美國比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)的大量資金流入,今年迄今為止,比特幣價格已上漲 56%,但仍低於 3 月觸及的 73,798 美元的峰值。
Bitcoin has tended to perform poorly in September. Over the past decade, the average decline in Bitcoin’s price during the month has been about 5.9%, according to a recent analysis by crypto data firm IntoTheBlock.
比特幣在 9 月的表現往往不佳。根據加密數據公司 IntoTheBlock 最近的分析,在過去十年中,比特幣價格在一個月內的平均跌幅約為 5.9%。
But this year marks a distinct departure from that trend. Bitcoin began the month trading around $58,463. A 5.9% loss from that level would put Bitcoin at around $54,988 by the end of September.
但今年明顯背離了這個趨勢。比特幣本月開盤交易價格約為 58,463 美元。如果從該水準下跌 5.9%,到 9 月底,比特幣價格將達到 54,988 美元左右。
Instead, if Bitcoin can hold onto its recent gains and close the month near current levels, it will be notching one of its best Septembers in recent memory.
相反,如果比特幣能夠保持近期的漲幅並在接近當前水平的水平收盤,它將成為近期記憶中最好的 9 月之一。
"Bitcoin’s correlation with monetary policy is especially strong when it comes to the Federal Reserve," said Sean McNulty, trading director at Arbelos Markets.
Arbelos Markets 交易總監 Sean McNulty 表示:“就聯準會而言,比特幣與貨幣政策的相關性尤其強烈。”
"The market is reacting to the Fed cutting rates as quickly as possible. This is creating a ‘risk on’ environment, which is helping Bitcoin,” he added in emailed comments.
「市場正在盡快對聯準會降息做出反應。這正在創造一個『風險』環境,這對比特幣有利,」他在電子郵件評論中補充道。
Battered by high inflation and slowing growth, the Fed began raising interest rates earlier this year. But recent data showing easing price pressures and weaker consumer spending have prompted the central bank to shift gears.
受高通膨和經濟成長放緩的打擊,聯準會今年稍早開始升息。但最近的數據顯示物價壓力緩解和消費者支出疲軟促使央行改變策略。
Earlier this month, the Fed delivered its smallest rate increase since March, a move that was largely priced in by markets.
本月早些時候,聯準會實施了自 3 月以來最小的升息幅度,這項舉措很大程度上已被市場消化。
But markets are now speculating on the possibility of the Fed pausing or even cutting rates next year, a scenario that could bode well for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
但市場現在正在猜測聯準會明年是否可能暫停甚至降息,這對比特幣等風險較高的資產來說可能是個好兆頭。
"Bitcoin is up year-to-date, and this is largely due to the optimism in the market, which is being aided by favorable monetary conditions," McNulty said.
麥克納爾蒂表示:“比特幣今年以來一直在上漲,這主要是由於市場的樂觀情緒,而有利的貨幣條件也推動了這種樂觀情緒。”
Bitcoin’s price movements are also being closely watched as the options market reacts to the expiring contracts.
隨著選擇權市場對到期合約的反應,比特幣的價格走勢也受到密切關注。
"The $65,000 price point is key with numerous options contracts expiring. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $65K decisively, look for a downturn," warned analysts at crypto exchange Kraken in recent commentary.
加密貨幣交易所Kraken 的分析師在最近的評論中警告說:「65,000 美元的價格點是眾多期權合約到期的關鍵。如果比特幣未能果斷地保持在65,000 美元以上,那麼就會出現低迷。 」
Meanwhile, smaller cryptocurrencies are also rallying, with dogecoin and XRP posting gains of over 20% and 10%, respectively, over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko.
同時,根據 CoinGecko 的數據,較小的加密貨幣也在上漲,過去 7 天內狗狗幣和 XRP 的漲幅分別超過 20% 和 10%。
The broader crypto market recovery comes as investors are shifting their attention away from traditional assets and towards digital currencies like Bitcoin.
隨著投資者將注意力從傳統資產轉向比特幣等數位貨幣,加密貨幣市場出現了更廣泛的復甦。
The central banks’ actions are increasing market liquidity, allowing many investors to pivot into cryptocurrencies.
央行的行動正在增加市場流動性,使許多投資者能夠轉向加密貨幣。
This shift is especially evident among institutional investors, who are adding Bitcoin and other digital assets to their portfolios.
這種轉變在機構投資者中尤其明顯,他們正在將比特幣和其他數位資產添加到他們的投資組合中。
The launch and growth of Bitcoin ETFs have been crucial in these dynamics. These funds allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency, an endeavor that typically attracts higher levels of risk.
比特幣 ETF 的推出和成長在這些動態中至關重要。這些基金允許傳統投資者在不直接購買加密貨幣的情況下獲得比特幣的投資,這種行為通常會帶來更高的風險。
This accessibility has attracted large inflows, which are helping to support Bitcoin’s price movements.
這種可訪問性吸引了大量資金流入,這有助於支撐比特幣的價格趨勢。
Bitcoin options traders are bracing for a period of heightened volatility as large sums of money are set to expire on the derivatives market on recent Friday.
比特幣選擇權交易員正準備迎接一段波動加劇的時期,因為衍生性商品市場上的大量資金將於最近週五到期。
Recent data showed that around $1.3 billion in Bitcoin options premiums will expire on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, at 08:00 ET. This marks a significant increase from the roughly $660 million that was due to expire last month.
最近的數據顯示,全球最大的加密貨幣選擇交易所 Deribit 約 13 億美元的比特幣選擇權溢價將於美國東部時間 08:00 到期。這與上個月到期的約 6.6 億美元相比大幅增加。
"We can expect a volatile session into the options expiry, especially with the market being bullish and having risen substantially over the past few months," said Nikita Patel, a crypto options trader at Deribit Options, in emailed comments.
Deribit Options 的加密貨幣期權交易員 Nikita Patel 在電子郵件評論中表示:“我們預計期權到期日將出現波動,尤其是在市場看漲且過去幾個月大幅上漲的情況下。”
"There is a lot of interest in the higher strike prices, which could indicate bullish sentiment and expectations of further upside," he added.
他補充說:“人們對更高的執行價格很感興趣,這可能表明看漲情緒和進一步上漲的預期。”
Institutions are also showing interest in the lower strike prices, which could signal a belief that Bitcoin is set to correct, Patel said.
帕特爾表示,機構也對較低的執行價格表現出興趣,這可能表明人們相信比特幣即將糾正。
Options traders are betting on whether Bitcoin will rise or fall to a particular "strike" price by a specific date. If their prediction is correct, they stand to make a profit.
選擇權交易者押注比特幣在特定日期之前是否會上漲或下跌至特定的「執行」價格。如果他們的預測是正確的,他們就能獲利。
Options contracts give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of a call option) or sell (in the case of a put option) a certain amount of Bitcoin at a set price on or before the expiration date.
選擇權合約賦予持有者在到期日或之前以設定價格購買(如果是看漲期權)或出售(如果是看跌期權)一定數量的比特幣的權利,但沒有義務。
Call options are typically used to bet on rising prices, while put options are used to bet on falling prices.
買權通常用於押注價格上漲,而賣權則用於押注價格下跌。
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