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具體來說,比特幣正面臨投資者興趣下降的局面,搜尋量反映的水平低於最具挑戰性的熊市期間的水平
Investors who might be anticipating a continuation of Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to reclaim the $70,000 level might have to adjust their expectations, as the broader market sentiment seems to be indicating a possible delay in such a move.
預計比特幣 (BTC) 繼續反彈以收復 70,000 美元水平的投資者可能不得不調整他們的預期,因為更廣泛的市場情緒似乎表明這一舉措可能會延遲。
Despite Bitcoin’s recent surge and growing bullish sentiment, its path to reclaiming the $70,000 level might be hindered by several challenges. One key aspect investors need to monitor is Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its price above the $65,000 level.
儘管比特幣最近飆升且看漲情緒不斷增強,但其奪回 70,000 美元水平的道路可能會受到一些挑戰的阻礙。投資者需要監控的一個關鍵方面是比特幣將其價格維持在 65,000 美元以上的能力。
According to data shared by Alex Becker, Bitcoin is facing dwindling interest from investors. Search volumes for the leading cryptocurrency are reflecting levels lower than those seen during the most challenging bear markets.
根據 Alex Becker 分享的數據,投資者對比特幣的興趣正在下降。領先加密貨幣的搜尋量反映的水平低於最具挑戰性的熊市期間的水平。
An analysis of search trends indicates that while the crypto community might be perceiving increasing bullish sentiment, the broader market seems to be largely disengaged. Looking at metrics such as YouTube and Google search data, crypto interest remains at what Becker termed “worse than bear market” levels.
對搜尋趨勢的分析表明,雖然加密貨幣社群可能會感受到看漲情緒的增加,但更廣泛的市場似乎基本上沒有參與。從 YouTube 和Google搜尋資料等指標來看,加密貨幣興趣仍處於貝克爾所說的「比熊市更糟糕」的水平。
“It may seem like everyone is too bullish right now. You need to step back. On YT and Google crypto interest is still at “worse than bear market” lows,” he said.
「現在看來每個人都過於樂觀了。你需要退後一步。在 YouTube 和谷歌上,加密貨幣興趣仍處於「比熊市更糟糕」的低點,」他說。
The data shows that search volume dropped from its peak in 2020, when it hit the maximum search interest score of 100, to just 17, highlighting the extent of investor disinterest.
數據顯示,搜尋量從 2020 年的高峰(當時搜尋興趣得分最高為 100)下降至僅 17,凸顯了投資人不感興趣的程度。
Becker’s analysis suggests that roughly 85% of the retail crowd has left the market, indicating that most investors are bearish and have completely abandoned tracking crypto trends. He adds that for Bitcoin and the broader crypto space to regain significant traction, current online engagement must increase by at least 3.5 times.
貝克爾的分析表明,大約 85% 的散戶已經離開市場,這表明大多數投資者持看跌態度,並完全放棄追蹤加密貨幣趨勢。他補充說,為了讓比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣領域重新獲得巨大的吸引力,當前的線上參與度必須增加至少 3.5 倍。
Furthermore, Becker’s analysis points out that this disengagement signifies that while a vocal minority remains bullish, the majority is bearish, rendering Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies largely irrelevant.
此外,貝克爾的分析指出,這種脫離意味著,雖然少數人仍然看漲,但大多數人持看跌態度,這使得比特幣和其他加密貨幣在很大程度上變得無關緊要。
Bitcoin’s all-time high to wait longer
比特幣創歷史新高需要等待更長時間
The sentiment around the digital asset also hints at what awaits Bitcoin based on market interest, as indicated by data shared by crypto analysis platform Santiment in an X post on September 29.
加密貨幣分析平台 Santiment 在 9 月 29 日發布的 X 貼文中分享的數據表明,圍繞數位資產的情緒也暗示了基於市場興趣的比特幣的前景。
The platform acknowledged that Bitcoin has witnessed a 22% surge in value, sparking optimism about a possible continuation. However, this wave of bullish sentiment might be counterproductive to the imminent all-time high some in the market are anticipating.
該平台承認,比特幣價值已飆升 22%,引發了人們對比特幣價格可能持續上漲的樂觀情緒。然而,這波看漲情緒可能會與市場上一些人預期的即將到來的歷史高點產生反作用。
According to the data, Bitcoin’s positive commentary is currently at the highest point of the year, with 1.8 bullish posts for every bearish post. This ratio of bullish-to-bearish sentiment reflects the crowd’s enthusiasm for a swift rally, possibly to the $70,000 level.
數據顯示,比特幣的正面評論目前處於年內最高點,每則看跌貼文對應1.8個看漲貼文。這種看漲與看跌情緒的比率反映了人們對迅速反彈(可能達到 70,000 美元水平)的熱情。
As Santiment observes, historically, markets often move opposite to the majority’s expectations. When overly positive sentiment arises, it can signal a potential pullback or stagnation.
正如桑蒂門特所觀察到的,從歷史上看,市場的走勢常常與大多數人的預期相反。當過度積極的情緒出現時,可能預示著潛在的回調或停滯。
Excessive optimism can lead to diminished demand or profit-taking by larger investors, causing short-term downward pressure. While long-term fundamentals are strong, the market may need time to digest gains and reset before the next push higher.
過度樂觀可能導致需求減少或大投資者獲利了結,造成短期下行壓力。儘管長期基本面強勁,但市場可能需要時間來消化漲幅並在下一次推高之前進行重置。
Bitcoin remains in the ‘Greed’ zone
比特幣仍處於「貪婪」區域
The current market overconfidence is also seen on the crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is currently in the “Greed” zone, with a reading of 63. This sentiment highlights growing investor confidence, a significant shift from recent months of cautious or mixed sentiment.
目前市場的過度自信也體現在加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數上,目前處於「貪婪」區域,讀數為63。發生了重大轉變。
The Fear & Greed Index, which oscillates between extreme fear and extreme greed on a scale of 0 to 100, provides insights into whether market participants are overly bullish or bearish.
恐懼與貪婪指數在極度恐懼和極度貪婪之間波動,範圍為 0 到 100,提供了有關市場參與者是否過度看漲或過度看跌的見解。
However, high greed levels can sometimes indicate overbought conditions and a potential market correction, as emotional exuberance rather than fundamentals may be driving prices.
然而,高貪婪程度有時可能表明超買狀況和潛在的市場調整,因為推動價格的可能是情緒旺盛而不是基本面。
An analysis by Alan Santana supports the possible bearish sentiment. The expert noted that investors should anticipate a potential correction when Bitcoin forms a ‘major low’ in the coming months. In this line, if Bitcoin continues to trade below the $71,000 mark, the crypto will likely drop further, as this level signals sustained bearishness.
艾倫桑塔納 (Alan Santana) 的分析支持了可能的看跌情緒。這位專家指出,當比特幣在未來幾個月形成「重大低點」時,投資者應該預期可能會出現修正。就這一點而言,如果比特幣繼續跌破 71,000 美元大關,加密貨幣可能會進一步下跌,因為該水平表明持續看跌。
However, market analyst CyclesFan, in an X post on September 29, offered a dissenting voice, noting that Bitcoin is destined for a record high in Q4 2024. The expert observed that after enduring a five-month correction, Bitcoin’s price action signals a potential breakout to new all-time highs by Q4 2024.
然而,市場分析師CyclesFan 在9 月29 日的X 帖子中提出了不同的聲音,指出比特幣注定會在2024 年第四季度創下歷史新高。比特幣的價格走勢預示著比特幣可能在2024 年第四季創下歷史新高。
The correction phase, which ended in August when Bitcoin touched its 12-month moving average, mirrors a similar market structure seen before the bull market peak in 2021.
修正階段於 8 月比特幣觸及 12 個月移動平均線時結束,這反映了 2021 年牛市頂峰之前的類似市場結構。
If history repeats, investors anticipate Bitcoin to rally in tandem with the ‘Uptober’ momentum, where the asset tends to perform better in October. To this end, some analysts maintain that if Bitcoin clears $68,000, it is open to claiming the $100,000
如果歷史重演,投資者預計比特幣將與「Uptober」勢頭同步上漲,該資產往往在 10 月表現更好。為此,一些分析師認為,如果比特幣突破 68,000 美元,那麼就可以領 10 萬美元
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