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一位分析師表示:“新的現金流入可能會間接推高比特幣的價格,特別是從長期角度來看。”
Bitcoin (BTC) prices appear to be following the growth in the Chinese central bank's balance sheet over the last eight years, maintaining a strong positive 30-day correlation.
在過去八年裡,比特幣 (BTC) 價格似乎跟隨中國央行資產負債表的成長,並保持著強烈的 30 天正相關性。
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) holds roughly $6.22 trillion in U.S. dollars on its balance sheet. At press time, the 30-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin's price and the PBOC's balance sheet size was 0.66, according to data source TradingView. The correlation has remained positive throughout the period, except for 2016 and from late 2022 to 2023.
中國人民銀行 (PBOC) 的資產負債表上持有約 6.22 兆美元。根據資料來源TradingView的數據,截至發稿時,比特幣價格與央行資產負債表規模之間的30天相關係數為0.66。除 2016 年以及 2022 年底至 2023 年外,整個期間內相關性一直保持正相關。
On the other hand, bitcoin had a -0.88 correlation over 30 days with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the lowest on record since 2016.
另一方面,比特幣在 30 天內與聯準會資產負債表的相關性為 -0.88,為 2016 年以來有史以來的最低水準。
A strong correlation ranges from 0.6-0.9, while 0.8-1 is considered a very strong correlation. Correlations are a statistical measure of how two variables are related and can be used in financial markets to predict or track asset prices.
強相關性範圍為 0.6-0.9,而 0.8-1 被認為是非常強的相關性。相關性是兩個變數如何相關的統計量測,可用於金融市場來預測或追蹤資產價格。
The positive correlation is significant, especially as the PBOC announced earlier this week that it was considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to enhance their ability to support the struggling economy.
這種正相關性非常顯著,尤其是中國央行本週稍早宣布,正在考慮向其最大的國有銀行注入高達1 兆元人民幣(1,420 億美元)的資本,以增強其支持陷入困境的經濟的能力。
The central bank also reduced the reserve requirement ratio for mainland banks by 50 basis points (bps) and the seven-day reverse repo rate – the interest rate at which a central bank borrows funds from commercial banks – by 20 bps to 1.5%.
央行也將內地銀行的存款準備率下調50個基點,並將7天逆回購利率(央行向商業銀行借款的利率)下調20個基點至1.5%。
BTC has risen nearly 3% this week and over 10% for the month, according to CoinDesk data. Following the PBOC's stimulus measures, Asian stocks, particularly those in China, have also surged.
根據 CoinDesk 的數據,BTC 本週上漲近 3%,本月上漲超過 10%。隨著中國央行的刺激措施,亞洲股市,尤其是中國股市也大幅上漲。
The CSI 300 Index of large-cap shares soared 4.5% on Friday, bringing the gain for the week to 16%, the highest since 2008.
滬深300大盤股指數週五飆漲4.5%,本週漲幅達16%,創2008年以來最高。
In a Telegram message to CoinDesk on Friday, market analyst Nick Ruck highlighted that the stimulus, like that provided by the U.S., aims to reduce unemployment and encourage business growth, which could have an indirect effect on bitcoin's price, especially over the long term.
市場分析師Nick Ruck 在周五發給CoinDesk 的Telegram 訊息中強調,刺激措施(如美國提供的刺激措施)旨在減少失業率並鼓勵企業成長,這可能會對比特幣的價格產生間接影響,尤其是從長期來看。
“The stimulus could lead to increased investment in blockchain companies that may include mining technology and startups,” Ruck explained. “Select funds may also be able to increase exposure to crypto-related investments offshore, such as in stock-listed firms and ETFs in Hong Kong.”
「刺激措施可能會導致對區塊鏈公司的投資增加,其中可能包括採礦技術和新創公司,」魯克解釋。 “某些基金還可能增加對離岸加密貨幣相關投資的投資,例如香港的股票上市公司和 ETF。”
Others anticipate that the boost will extend beyond bitcoin, benefiting all riskier assets in the upcoming months.
其他人則預計,這種提振將超越比特幣,在未來幾個月內使所有風險較高的資產受益。
“It’s all the green light for global risk markets as U.S. equities hit new ATHs for the 3rd time this week, helped by a rapid-fire of furious stimulus to resuscitate the long-struggling Chinese economy,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk. “This has led macro observers to turn explicitly bullish on all risk assets in the interim, with a seemingly globally synchronized easing move that was reminiscent of the easy-money days from the QE era.”
SOFA 洞察主管 Augustine Fan 表示:「在旨在重振長期陷入困境的中國經濟的猛烈刺激措施的幫助下,美國股市本週第三次觸及新高,這為全球風險市場開了綠燈。」 ,告訴CoinDesk 。 “這導致宏觀觀察人士在此期間明確看好所有風險資產,看似全球同步的寬鬆舉措讓人想起量化寬鬆時代的寬鬆貨幣時代。”
“Naturally, crypto prices are still highly correlated to equity performance. However, investor sentiment seems to have flipped to a ‘buy the dip’ mode, and risk-reward favors a continued rally with no or little downside catalysts in sight,” Fan added.
「當然,加密貨幣價格仍然與股票表現高度相關。然而,投資人情緒似乎已轉向『逢低買進』模式,風險回報有利於持續反彈,看不到或幾乎沒有下行催化劑,」範補充道。
The Block Commodities Editor Shaurya Malwa covered the story.
大宗商品編輯 Shaurya Malwa 報導了這個故事。
CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which also owns Grayscale, Genesis Trading, CoinDesk Indexes and Foundry.
CoinDesk 是數位貨幣集團的獨立營運子公司,該集團還擁有 Grayscale、Genesis Trading、CoinDesk Indexes 和 Foundry。
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