在過去兩天中，比特幣（BTC）價格超過10％

回調使投資者質疑美國現貨比特幣ETF在低迷中的作用，因為數據揭示了這些產品的大量流出。

In the past two days, the Bitcoin price has tumbled more than 10%, rattling a crypto market that had seen a sustained period of relative stability. The pullback has left investors questioning the role of US spot-based Bitcoin ETFs in the downturn, as data emerges revealing significant outflows from these products.

在過去的兩天中，比特幣的價格跌幅超過10％，震撼了一個持續相對穩定的加密貨幣市場。回調使投資者質疑美國現貨比特幣ETF在低迷中的作用，因為數據揭示了這些產品的大量流出。

Highlighting the trends in his post on X, Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, tabulated the staggering outflows from BTC ETPs, noting that yesterday’s outflows were the largest since the launch of US spot ETFs. He also mentioned that February has seen a strong bias towards outflows, with 69% of trading days concluding with more outflows than inflows.

K33 Research的研究負責人Vetle Lunde在X上的帖子中強調了趨勢，將BTC ETPS的驚人流出列為the列，並指出昨天的流出是自美國ETF啟動以來最大的。他還提到，2月對流出有很大的偏見，而交易日的69％以更多的流出結束，而不是流入。

Are Bitcoin ETFs To Blame?

比特幣ETF是否要怪？

While the single-day figures are noteworthy, Lunde emphasizes the broader implication of persistent outflows throughout February. However, not all market participants necessarily view these outflows as a doomsday scenario.

儘管值得注意的是單日數字，但隆德強調了整個2月的持續流出的更廣泛的含義。但是，並非所有市場參與者都一定會將這些流出視為世界末日的情況。

Adam (@abetrade) from Trading Riot provides a different perspective, arguing that dramatic ETF flows have historically been observed to precede market corrections, which eventually revert to the mean. Except for an exceptional inflow following Trump’s win on November 7th, such “big red numbers” typically trigger panic selling, setting the stage for a subsequent rebound.

亞當（@abetrade）從交易暴動提供了不同的觀點，認為歷史上觀察到戲劇性的ETF流是在市場校正之前的，最終恢復了平均值。除了特朗普在11月7日獲勝之後出色的流入外，這種“大紅色數字”通常會引發恐慌銷售，為隨後的反彈奠定了基礎。

According to Adam, the current situation might be an overreaction, and once the initial wave of selling subsides, the market could stabilize or even see a relief rally. This view is based on historical precedents where similar episodes did not lead to sustained downturns, suggesting that the prevailing sentiment could eventually turn contrarian.

根據亞當的說法，目前的情況可能是一種過度反應，一旦最初的銷售浪潮消退，市場就可以穩定甚至看到救濟集會。這種觀點是基於歷史先例，類似的情節並沒有導致持續的衰退，這表明普遍的情緒最終可能會變成逆勢。

“Except for November 7th, when large inflows followed Trump's win, every other occurrence of outsized inflows or outflows has been a mean-reverting signal. Generally, people see a big red number and start panic selling, or vice versa, which ends up sending the market in the opposite direction,” Adam stated.

“除了11月7日，當特朗普獲勝後，大量流入時，其他所有發生的流入或流出的事件都是卑鄙的信號。通常，人們看到一個大紅色數字，開始恐慌銷售，反之亦然，最終將市場朝相反的方向發送。”亞當說。

Further examining the market dynamics, Zaheer Ebtikar, Chief Investment Officer and founder of Split Capital, links the narrative to the evolving interplay between CME Futures and the futures premium. Until recently, CME Futures were trading at nearly double the premium of conventional cryptocurrency exchanges. But in recent days, this premium has corrected significantly to below 5%—a level approaching the risk-free rate.

Split Capital的首席投資官兼創始人Zaheer Ebtikar進一步研究了市場動態，將敘述與CME Futures與Futures Premium之間不斷發展的相互作用聯繫起來。直到最近，CME期貨的交易幾乎是常規加密貨幣交易所溢價的兩倍。但是最近幾天，這種溢價已顯著糾正至5％以下 - 接近無風險利率的水平。

Ebtikar highlights the significance of this correction. As the futures premium normalized, market participants appeared to “throw in the towel” on Bitcoin ETFs, with CME Futures open interest falling to its lowest since the last election cycle. This decline in open interest is noteworthy given the implications for liquidity and willingness to hold the asset class.

Ebtikar強調了這種校正的重要性。隨著期貨溢價的正常化，市場參與者似乎在比特幣ETF上“扔毛巾”，而CME期貨開放興趣降至自上次選舉週期以來最低。鑑於對流動性和持有資產類別的意願的意義，開放利益的這種下降是值得注意的。

Furthermore, Ebtikar points out that the period also saw nearly record trading volumes on the CME. This surge in activity underscores the heightened interest and engagement in futures trading, contrasting with the decreasing interest in ETFs.

此外，Ebtikar指出，這一時期在CME上也有幾乎創紀錄的交易量。這種活動激增強調了期貨交易的興趣和參與度的提高，與ETF的興趣下降形成對比。

This shift is evident in the interplay between a shrinking futures premium and rising futures volume.

這種轉變在收縮期貨溢價與期貨增長量之間的相互作用中很明顯。

"In a paradoxical way, futures premium down = futures start getting bid and ETFs start dumping. The final tell here was CME Futures volume in the past couple of days reaching nearly record highs since the election," Ebtikar concludes.

埃比蒂卡（Ebtikar）總結說：“以一種自相矛盾的方式，期貨溢價=期貨開始競標，ETF開始傾倒。在這裡的最後幾天是過去幾天的CME期貨量，自大選以來幾乎達到了紀錄的高潮。”

Macro Headwinds

宏觀逆風

On a broader macroeconomic note, Singapore-based QCP Capital describes a global risk-off move affecting equities, gold, and BTC, amid growing whispers of stagflation. Consumer sentiment has taken a hit, suggested by a weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index of 98 (versus 103 expected), while the US administration’s newly confirmed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports—effective March 3—have further dampened sentiment.

在更廣泛的宏觀經濟上，總部位於新加坡的QCP資本描述了影響股票，黃金和BTC的全球風險行動，這是由於散落的竊竊私語而越來越多。消費者的情緒受到了打擊，這是由98歲的消費者信心指數（與預期的103相比）提出的，而美國政府對加拿大和墨西哥進口的25％關稅（3月3日）的關稅卻進一步削弱了情緒。

As QCP Capital sees it, investors are growing weary of potential trade escalations and elevated inflation, which together create an atmosphere of uncertainty. The once-crowded “Magnificent 7” equity trade is unraveling, and “long crypto” has also been identified as one of the most overextended positions. In choppy markets, crypto is often the first to be liquidated, reinforcing the negative price action.

正如QCP Capital所看到的那樣，投資者對潛在的貿易升級和通貨膨脹率提升的疲倦，這共同創造了一種不確定性的氛圍。曾經擁擠的“宏偉的7”股權貿易正在瓦解，“ Long Crypto”也被確定為最過度擴張的職位之一。在波濤洶湧的市場中，加密貨幣通常是第一個被清算的人，從而加強了負面的價格行動。

Looking ahead, QCP Capital points to a pair of key events that could set the tone. The NVIDIA earnings and this week’s PCE print. Results from the chipmaker, which has ridden the wave of AI-driven demand, could trigger another leg down if guidance disappoints. The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is forecast at 2.5% year-over-year, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Until inflation convincingly trends lower, the Fed is likely to keep rates steady. Markets currently price two rate cuts in 2025, the first in June or July.

展望未來，QCP Capital指出了一對可能設定基調的關鍵事件。 NVIDIA收入和本週的PCE印刷品。如果指導令人失望，則芯片製造商的結果可能會引發另一隻腿。即將到來的個人消費支出（PCE）數據預計為同比的2.5％，仍然高於美聯儲的2％目標。直到通貨膨脹令人信服地趨勢降低，美聯儲可能會保持利率穩定。市場目前在2025年的價格降低了2次，這是6月或7月的第一個。

But QCP Capital warns that markets remain fragile, advising caution as consumer and retail sentiment surveys—often leading indicators—could provide early signals of a stagflატ

但是QCP Capital警告說，市場仍然脆弱，建議作為消費者和零售情緒調查（通常是領先的指標）的謹慎，可能會提供STAGFL的早期信號。