比特幣（BTC）價格顯示出罕見的折扣，因為60天實現的市值差異價值（RCV）下降到其記錄下的最低水平

比特幣的價格表現出罕見的折扣，因為其60天對市值差異（RCV）的價值下降到最低水平

Key Insights:

關鍵見解：

* Bitcoin price is showing a rare discount as its 60-day Realized Value to Market Cap Variance (RCV) drops to its lowest level on record.

*比特幣價格表現出罕見的折扣，因為其60天對市場上限差異（RCV）的價值下降到其最低水平。

* At the time of writing, BTC price is experiencing some resistance in retail investor demand while negative funding rates and a declining Coinbase Premium indicate strong bearish sentiment.

*在撰寫本文時，BTC的價格在散戶投資者的需求中遇到一些抵抗，而負資金率和下降的Coinbase Premium表示強烈的看跌情緒。

* However, data suggests a key moment for accumulation as 60-day RCV drops to lows not seen since 2023.

*但是，數據表明，由於60天的RCV下降到自2023年以來從未見過的低點，積累的關鍵時刻。

Following a recent downturn, Bitcoin price experienced a rebound from key Fibonacci support levels, reaching highs of $92,000 in February 2025.

在最近的經濟低迷之後，比特幣價格從斐波那契的主要支持水平反彈，2025年2月達到92,000美元。

However, despite this recovery attempt, the cryptocurrency encountered resistance at the 0% neutral level on an indicator called Retail Investor Demand (RID). This is an important indicator of Bitcoin adoption and buying interest.

但是，儘管嘗試了這種恢復嘗試，但加密貨幣在0％中性水平上遇到了一個稱為零售投資者需求（RID）的指標。這是比特幣採用和購買利息的重要指標。

As seen on the chart above, after a period of oversaturated demand, the indicator began to quickly fall back into negative territory.

如上圖所示，在一段時間的需求過多之後，指標開始迅速落入負面領域。

This had a significant impact on BTC price, causing it to drop to $88,000. However, data suggests that demand is quickly picking up again.

這對BTC價格產生了重大影響，使其下降到88,000美元。但是，數據表明需求正在迅速恢復。

According to Glassnode, when RID moves above 0%, Bitcoin generally enjoys new momentum. This metric is being closely monitored by analysts to determine whether Bitcoin will bounce upward or remain at these secondary levels.

根據GlassNode的說法，當RID移動到0％以上時，比特幣通常會享有新的動力。分析師正在密切監視該指標，以確定比特幣是向上反彈還是保持在這些次要水平。

After a period of high volatility following the cryptocurrency winter of 2022, market conditions have calmed down, and recent data shows that many exchanges have begun to experience negative funding rates.

經過2022年加密貨幣冬季之後的高波動性，市場狀況已經平靜下來，最近的數據表明，許多交易所已經開始經歷負資金率負數。

If futures price is less than spot price, it’s an excess of the short positions and results in negative funding rate on futures exchanges. If futures price is greater than spot price, it’s called funding rate.

如果期貨價格低於現貨價格，則超出了短期職位，並導致期貨交易所的負資金率負數。如果期貨價格大於現貨價格，則稱為融資率。

This signals that traders are short on Bitcoin and anticipate a price drop in the coming period. However, if the total value of futures is less than the market cap of Bitcoin, it indicates that there are more buyers than sellers in the market.

這表明交易者對比特幣缺乏，並預計未來時期的價格下跌。但是，如果期貨的總價值小於比特幣市值，則表明買賣雙方的買賣雙方比市場上的賣家多。

Moreover, the Coinbase Premium has turned negative, indicating that selling pressure is intensifying on Coinbase compared to other exchanges.

此外，Coinbase Premium已變為負面，表明與其他交易所相比，銷售壓力正在加劇Coinbase。

This metric measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other platforms. Typically, when Coinbase trades at a premium, it suggests stronger buying activity from institutional investors. Conversely, a negative premium indicates a stronger presence of sell-side traders, such as institutional and retail investors.

該指標衡量了Coinbase和其他平台上比特幣之間的價格差異。通常，當Coinbase以溢價交易時，它表明從機構投資者那裡購買活動更強大。相反，負溢價表明賣方交易者（例如機構和零售投資者）的存在。

Key Moment For Accumulation As 60-Day RCV Drops To Its Lowest Level On Record

積累的關鍵時刻，因為60天的RCV下降到記錄的最低水平

Bitcoin’s 60-day RCV, which stands for Realized Value to Market Cap Variance, has dropped to its lowest point ever, reaching a 0.27 reading.

比特幣的60天RCV代表了對市場上限差異的實現價值，已下降到有史以來最低點，達到0.27讀數。

This metric, created by renowned on-chain analyst Willy Wu, measures the correlation between Bitcoin’s realized and market capitalization over a rolling window of 60 days. A lower RCV indicates a more favorable buying zone, while a higher RCV suggests overvaluation.

該指標由著名的鏈分析師Willy Wu創建，衡量了比特幣在60天的滾動窗口中實現的與市值之間的相關性。較低的RCV表示更有利的購買區，而更高的RCV表明高估。

As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s Normalized RCV is currently in the lowest territory, and at this point, it has entered the “Low Risk (Accumulation Zone)” before price recoveries in the past.

如圖所示，比特幣的歸一化RCV當前處於最低的領域，此時，在價格回收之前，它已經進入了“低風險（累積區）”。

This metric dropping below 0.30 has often put Bitcoin in strong buy zones, with prior similar occurrences in history, such as in 2011 and 2015, later showing up as ideal accumulation zones.

該指標下降到0.30以下，通常將比特幣放在強大的購買區中，在2011年和2015年（如在2011年和2015年），其先前類似的事件是理想的積累區域。

After the 2011 drop, Bitcoin went on a 600% run in the following two years. A similar occurrence in 2015 saw Bitcoin enter a four-year bull market after the RCV dropped below 0.30.

在2011年下降後，比特幣在接下來的兩年中持續了600％。在2015年，在RCV下降到0.30以下之後，比特幣在2015年發生了類似的情況。

This time around, the metric fell below this crucial point in December 2024, presenting a unique opportunity for long-term investors to utilize Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to scale into BTC positions.

這次，度量標準降至2024年12月的關鍵點之下，為長期投資者提供了利用美元成本平均（DCA）來擴展到BTC職位的獨特機會。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $42,000, which is also the level at which 60-day RCV dropped below 0.30.

在寫作時，比特幣的價格徘徊在42,000美元左右，這也是60天的RCV降至0.30以下的水平。

This triple confluence at a key technical support, technical indicator, and on-chain metric suggests that the cryptocurrency could be deeply undervalued.

在關鍵的技術支持，技術指標和鍊鍊指標的三重匯合處表明，加密貨幣可以被深深地低估。