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自 2013 年以來,比特幣 (BTC) 在 11 年內有 9 年在 10 月實現了正回報,因此獲得了「Uptober」的綽號。
Bitcoin (BTC) has historically performed well in October, leading to the moniker “Uptober.” As September ends, Finbold used OpenAI's o1 artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict BTC's price based on past results.
比特幣(BTC)歷來在 10 月表現良好,因此被稱為「Uptober」。截至 9 月底,Finbold 使用 OpenAI 的 o1 人工智慧 (AI) 模型根據過去的結果預測 BTC 的價格。
The o1 AI, considered one of the world's most advanced models, calculated a potential price range for Bitcoin in 2024's “Uptober.” To do this, OpenAI's o1 used the average and median monthly historical results from October's opening to closing prices.
o1 AI 被認為是世界上最先進的模型之一,它在 2024 年的「Uptober」中計算出了比特幣的潛在價格範圍。為此,OpenAI 的 o1 使用了從 10 月開盤價到收盤價的月度歷史結果平均值和中位數。
As a result, o1 predicts that BTC will trade between $80,800 and $83,900 by the month's end. This prediction assumes an opening price of $65,717, as we prompted the exchange rate at the time of writing.
因此,o1 預測 BTC 月底交易價格將在 80,800 美元至 83,900 美元之間。這項預測假設開盤價為 65,717 美元,正如我們在撰寫本文時提示的匯率一樣。
Bitcoin's Uptober historical results
比特幣的 Uptober 歷史結果
Interestingly, while October has historically positive returns, September is dominated by negative returns, also known as the “September Effect.” The market has then seen “Uptober” as a month of investing opportunities with notable results for the leading cryptocurrency.
有趣的是,雖然 10 月歷史上有正回報,但 9 月卻以負回報為主,也稱為「九月效應」。隨後,市場將「Uptober」視為領先加密貨幣投資機會顯著的一個月。
Notably, the only two negative years registered moderate losses of 3.83% and 12.95% in 2018 and 2014, respectively. Meanwhile, 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2023 had massive gains of 60.79%, 47.81%, 39.93%, and 28.52%, respectively.
值得注意的是,僅有的兩個負成長年份分別為 2018 年和 2014 年,分別為 3.83% 和 12.95%。同時,2013年、2017年、2021年及2023年的漲幅分別為60.79%、47.81%、39.93%及28.52%。
This year, 2024, saw Bitcoin's fourth halving, an important event for BTC investors, traders, and miners, which changes its economics. Previous halving years were 2020 and 2016, registering “Uptober” gains of 27.7% and 14.71%, respectively.
今年,也就是 2024 年,比特幣第四次減半,這對比特幣投資者、交易者和礦工來說是一個重要事件,改變了比特幣的經濟狀況。之前的減半年是 2020 年和 2016 年,「Uptober」收益分別為 27.7% 和 14.71%。
On average, October has returned 22.90% to traders who bought on the first day and sold on the last. The median results are even higher, nearing 28% gains, according to data Finbold retrieved from CoinGlass on September 29.
平均而言,10 月第一天買入、最後一天賣出的交易者的回報率為 22.90%。根據 Finbold 9 月 29 日從 CoinGlass 檢索到的數據,中位數結果甚至更高,接近 28% 的漲幅。
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
比特幣(BTC)價格分析
Bitcoin price is on the rise, already up from when we prompted OpenAI's o1 for the “Uptober” prediction. Right now, BTC trades at $65,870 against the dollar, up 56.07% year-to-date, although displaying a six-month downtrend.
比特幣價格正在上漲,比我們提示 OpenAI 的 o1 做出「Uptober」預測時已經上漲。目前,比特幣兌美元交易價格為 65,870 美元,今年迄今已上漲 56.07%,儘管呈現六個月的下跌趨勢。
However, while most market participants expect an overall positive October, the volatility can still hit in the meantime. Traders and investors must remain cautious as the month develops and avoid overexposure in leveraged positions without proper risk management.
然而,儘管大多數市場參與者預計 10 月總體樂觀,但同時波動仍可能發生。隨著月份的發展,交易者和投資者必須保持謹慎,避免在沒有適當風險管理的情況下過度投資槓桿頭寸。
These positions create liquidity pools that Bitcoin first needs to clear before moving to its next targets. In counterpoint, data still shows a significantly low interest in BTC, similar to levels seen in the previous bear market.
這些頭寸創建了比特幣在轉向下一個目標之前首先需要清算的流動性池。與此相反,數據仍然顯示人們對 BTC 的興趣明顯較低,與之前熊市的水平類似。
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