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目前,比特幣[BTC]確實已經收復了6.5萬美元的阻力位,這是一個積極的信號,但這還不是牛市的完全確認。
output: As Bitcoin [BTC] continues to rally, hitting the $65K resistance, it marks a significant step in the bull market narrative. However, to fully confirm a bull run to $74K, further price action is needed.
產出:隨著比特幣 [BTC] 繼續上漲,觸及 6.5 萬美元阻力位,這標誌著牛市敘事邁出了重要一步。然而,要完全確認多頭市場將上漲至 74,000 美元,還需要採取進一步的價格行動。
At present, BTC has indeed broken through the $65K resistance, which is a positive sign, but it’s not yet a full confirmation of a bull market.
目前,BTC確實突破了6.5萬美元阻力位,這是一個正面的訊號,但還沒有完全確認多頭市場。
In past bull markets, levels like this often serve as psychological barriers. Breaking $65K is significant, as it marks the reclaiming of a key historical resistance.
在過去的多頭市場中,這樣的水平常常成為心理障礙。突破 65,000 美元意義重大,因為它標誌著關鍵歷史阻力位的收復。
However, simply breaking it isn’t enough. Further steps are required to confirm a bull run to $74K.
然而,僅僅打破它是不夠的。需要採取進一步措施來確認牛市升至 74,000 美元。
According to AMBCrypto, to maintain a consistent bull run, Bitcoin must hold above $66K and ideally continue upward or pull back to $61K for a healthy retest.
根據 AMBCrypto 的說法,為了維持持續的牛市,比特幣必須保持在 6.6 萬美元以上,並且理想情況下繼續上漲或下降至 6.1 萬美元以進行健康的重新測試。
Source : Coinalyze
來源:Coinalyze
Now, let’s break down the logic behind this price analysis. Historically, whenever a key resistance is tested, it indicates strong buying pressure, often represented by the RSI reaching overbought conditions.
現在,讓我們來分解一下價格分析背後的邏輯。從歷史上看,每當測試關鍵阻力位時,都表明強勁的買壓,通常表現為 RSI 達到超買狀態。
Psychologically, this can make traders cautious. A rapid move to $66K could raise concerns about overextension, increasing the risk of a sharper correction later.
從心理上來說,這會讓交易者變得謹慎。快速升至 66,000 美元可能會引發人們對過度擴張的擔憂,從而增加隨後大幅調整的風險。
For instance, when BTC hit its ATH of $73K in March, the RSI remained above 70 for over a month, signaling an impending pullback, which eventually caused BTC to retrace back to $61K.
例如,當 BTC 在 3 月觸及 7.3 萬美元的最高峰值時,RSI 在一個多月內保持在 70 以上,預示著即將回調,最終導致 BTC 回撤至 6.1 萬美元。
If this trend holds, it might attract more buyers looking to enter the market at a lower price, making it easier for Bitcoin to push past $70K.
如果這種趨勢持續下去,可能會吸引更多希望以較低價格進入市場的買家,使比特幣更容易突破 7 萬美元。
Source : Bitcoin Magazine Pro
資料來源:比特幣雜誌專業版
Typically, the Z-score entering the green box has led to a bull rally afterward, indicated by the peak testing the red band, which highlights an overheated market.
通常情況下,Z 分數進入綠色方框會導致隨後的牛市反彈,如峰值測試紅色帶所示,這凸顯了市場過熱。
Therefore, a healthy retracement to $61K can set the stage for more aggressive buying, paving the way for BTC to retest its original ATH.
因此,健康回撤至 6.1 萬美元可以為更激進的買盤奠定基礎,為 BTC 重新測試其最初的 ATH 鋪平道路。
The key will be to hold
關鍵是要堅持
Conversely, instead of pulling back to $61K, Bitcoin jumps directly to $66K. This rapid rise shows strong buying pressure, as investors are eager to enter the market without waiting for a better price.
相反,比特幣並沒有回落至 6.1 萬美元,而是直接跳至 6.6 萬美元。這種快速上漲表明了強大的購買壓力,因為投資者渴望進入市場而不等待更好的價格。
While it seems unlikely, this can be a bullish signal, showing that there is enough demand to sustain higher prices.
雖然這似乎不太可能,但這可能是一個看漲信號,表明有足夠的需求來維持更高的價格。
Therefore, to maintain a bull market, Bitcoin must hold above $66K and ideally continue upwards.
因此,為了維持牛市,比特幣必須保持在 6.6 萬美元以上,並且最好繼續上漲。
In the past three days, as Bitcoin tested the $65K resistance, many long positions entered, expecting bulls to hold the level.
過去三天,隨著比特幣測試 6.5 萬美元阻力位,許多多頭建倉,預計多頭將守住該水平。
Source : HyblockCapital
資料來源:HyblockCapital
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
閱讀比特幣 [BTC] 2024-25 價格預測
However, with short sellers resurfacing, long liquidation could trigger a retracement to $61K, reinforcing AMBCrypto’s hypothesis. Overall, the bull rally past $70K hinges on bulls holding the $66K resistance.
然而,隨著賣空者重新出現,多頭清算可能會引發價格回撤至 61,000 美元,強化了 AMBCrypto 的假設。整體而言,多頭市場能否突破 7 萬美元取決於多頭守住 6.6 萬美元阻力位。
Otherwise, a retracement to $61K is essential for confirming support, reducing volatility, attracting buyers, and setting up for a sustained bull run to $74K.
否則,回調至 61,000 美元對於確認支撐、減少波動、吸引買家以及為持續牛市至 74,000 美元做好準備至關重要。
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