比特幣（BTC）價格預測：牛市會回歸嗎？

自 3 月達到 73,000 美元以上的峰值以來，比特幣 [BTC] 一直處於看跌狀態。截至發稿時，該資產的交易價格為 64,020 美元，較 3 月份的歷史高點 (ATH) 上漲 13.2%，較過去一周上漲約 4.4%。

Prominent crypto analyst Willy Woo has shared his latest insights on Bitcoin’s potential future valuation.

著名加密貨幣分析師 Willy Woo 分享了他對比特幣未來潛在估值的最新見解。

According to Woo, the minimum potential valuation for Bitcoin could be around $700,000, while the maximum might reach as high as $24 million per BTC.

Woo 表示，比特幣的最低潛在估值可能約為 70 萬美元，而最高可能達到每枚 2,400 萬美元。

However, he clarified that reaching the upper estimate would require an improbable scenario where all global wealth is invested in Bitcoin.

不過，他澄清說，要達到上限估計需要一個不太可能的情況，即全球所有財富都投資於比特幣。

Continuing his analysis, Woo touched upon realistic expectations for institutional investors’ involvement in Bitcoin.

吳繼續進行分析，談到了對機構投資者參與比特幣的現實期望。

He referenced Fidelity’s recommendation for portfolios to include 1-3% in Bitcoin, contrasting it with BlackRock’s much higher investment of 85% in some cases.

他提到富達投資建議投資組合中包含 1-3% 的比特幣，與貝萊德在某些情況下投資 85% 的高得多的建議形成鮮明對比。

Woo leaned towards a 3% allocation as a more sensible figure, which could still drive Bitcoin’s price to the $700,000 mark if broadly adopted.

Woo 傾向於 3% 的配置作為更明智的數字，如果廣泛採用，這仍可能推動比特幣價格升至 70 萬美元大關。

Further elaborating on his predictions, Woo discussed the adoption S-curve, noting that Bitcoin’s global adoption was 4.7% at press time.

Woo 進一步闡述了他的預測，討論了採用 S 曲線，並指出截至發稿時比特幣的全球採用率為 4.7%。

He predicted that as adoption increases to between 16% and 50%, Bitcoin’s price could escalate to the levels he outlined, driven by increasing mainstream acceptance and investment.

他預測，隨著主流接受度和投資的增加，比特幣的採用率將上升至 16% 至 50%，比特幣的價格可能會升至他概述的水平。

However, the current market tells a different story.

然而，目前的市場卻講述了一個不同的故事。

Recent fluctuations have seen a significant number of trader liquidations, with Bitcoin accounting for approximately $72.99 million of the total $255.67 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours, per Coinglass data.

根據 Coinglass 的數據，最近的波動導致大量交易者清算，在過去 24 小時內 2.5567 億美元的清算總額中，比特幣約佔 7,299 萬美元。

The majority of these were long positions, suggesting a tumultuous period for investors betting on immediate gains.

其中大部分是多頭頭寸，顯示押注眼前收益的投資人正處於一段動盪時期。

Crypto analyst RektCapital weighed in on the recent market dip, suggesting that the current retrace might be shorter than previous ones. He explained,

加密貨幣分析師 RektCapital 對最近的市場下跌發表了看法，認為目前的回撤可能比先前的回撤要短。他解釋說，

“The initial retrace inside the pattern took 5 weeks to bottom. The one after that took 4 weeks. This current one could take only 2–3 weeks to bottom.”

「該模式內的最初回調花了 5 週才見底。之後的一件事花了4個星期。目前的情況可能只需要 2-3 週就能見底。

Adding to the discussion, data from CryptoQuant showed that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio— used to assess profit or loss by comparing market value against realized value—was 2.1 at press time.

CryptoQuant 的數據顯示，截至發稿時，比特幣的市值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 比率（用於透過比較市值與已實現價值來評估利潤或損失）為 2.1。

An MVRV ratio greater than 1 suggested that Bitcoin was overvalued compared to its realized price, hinting that investors are holding coins at a profit, which could influence their selling decisions and affect market stability.

MVRV 比率大於 1 表示比特幣相對於其實現價格被高估，暗示投資者持有比特幣是為了獲利，這可能會影響他們的出售決策並影響市場穩定。