分析師預測，比特幣（BTC）下跌至90,000美元以下

本週比特幣（BTC）下跌90,00美元，分析師預測，隨著對沖基金放鬆其策略，分析師將進一步下降至70,00美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price slipped below $90,000 on Friday, increasing the potential for another drop to the $70,000 level as analysts predict.

正如分析師預測的那樣，比特幣（BTC）的價格在周五下跌低於90,000美元，將另一筆跌至70,000美元的潛力提高到了70,000美元。

This decline follows massive outflows from spot ETFs and hedge funds winding down their strategies, which had been profiting from the arbitrage between ETFs and futures.

這種下降遵循現貨ETF的大量流出和對沖基金結束其策略，這些策略已從ETF和Futures之間的套利中獲利。

After hitting a high of over $109,000 in January, Bitcoin has lost around 20% in a broad downturn that has also affected major altcoins.

在一月份達到超過109,000美元的高價之後，比特幣在巨大的低迷中損失了約20％，這也影響了主要的山寨幣。

On February 25 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of over $1 billion, setting a record for the largest single-day outflows since their launch in January 2024.

僅在2月25日，現貨比特幣ETF就看到了超過10億美元的流出，創造了自2024年1月推出以來最大的單日外流的記錄。

These outflows come as hedge funds are winding down a strategy that involved going long on ETFs and shorting CME futures, aiming for yields higher than Treasury rates.

這些流出是隨著對沖基金的結束，涉及長期以來的ETF和縮短CME期貨的策略，其目標的收益率高於國庫利率。

However, as Bitcoin price drops and this “basis spread” narrows, these funds are forced to sell ETF shares and buy back futures contracts, Ben Armstrong, host of the crypto YouTube channel "Armstrong and Friends," explained in a recent analysis.

但是，隨著比特幣的價格下跌和“基礎差”縮小，這些資金被迫出售ETF股票並回購期貨合約，Ben Armstrong是Crypto YouTube頻道“ Armstrong and Friends”的主持人Ben Armstrong。

"They've been able to earn a 7% yield going long on the ETF and short the futures, but as the futures price drops and the ETF price drops, the hedge funds will need to sell their ETF shares and buy back the futures contracts."

“他們已經能夠在ETF上賺取7％的收益率，而短缺期貨，但是隨著期貨價格下跌和ETF的價格下跌，對沖基金將需要出售其ETF股票並回購期貨合約。”

This activity will exert additional downward pressure on Bitcoin price, potentially opening up the possibility of a move to the $70,000 level, which is a key Fibonacci support.

這項活動將對比特幣價格施加額外的向下壓力，有可能使遷移到70,000美元的可能性開放，這是斐波那契的關鍵支持。

"Bitcoin goblin town incoming... $70,000 I see you mofo!" warned BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes on social media.

“比特幣哥布林鎮接入……$ 70,000，我看到你Mofo！”在社交媒體上警告Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes。

"As this 'basis spread' narrows, HF [hedge fund] selling pressure will increase, and they will quickly sell their BTC holdings in a vicious cycle of lower prices and higher borrowing costs."

“隨著'基礎傳播'的變化，HF [對沖基金]銷售壓力將增加，他們將在價格較低的價格和更高的借貸成本的惡性循環中迅速出售其BTC持股。”

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick advises against buying this dip yet.

標準特許分析師傑夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）建議不要購買此蘸醬。

"DO NOT buy the BTC dip yet, a move to the low 80s is on the cards as we expect more outflows from ETFs to come as the hedge funds close out their trades and the futures basis continues to narrow," stated the analyst.

分析師說：“請務必購買BTC傾角，因為對沖基金結束了他們的交易，而期貨基礎卻繼續縮小，我們期望ETF的流出會有更多的流失，這是在卡片上的搬遷。”

Chart patterns also support a bearish outlook, with 10X Research identifying a "diamond top" pattern in Bitcoin's chart, which is often associated with trend reversals.

圖表模式還支持看跌的前景，10倍研究確定了比特幣圖中的“鑽石頂部”模式，該圖表通常與趨勢逆轉有關。

Their report identifies $73,000 as a key target, aligning with previous support levels and the lower boundary of the diamond pattern.

他們的報告將$ 73,000確定為關鍵目標，與先前的支持水平和鑽石模式的下邊界保持一致。

"The technical indicators suggest that a move towards $73,000 is likely, setting the stage for an interesting showdown between the bulls and bears in the weeks ahead."

“技術指標表明，可能會向73,000美元邁進，為公牛和熊隊在未來幾週之間進行有趣的攤牌奠定了基礎。”

Besides ETF dynamics, several factors are fueling the downturn, including the Bybit exchange suffering a massive $1.5 billion hack last week, eroding investor confidence.

除了ETF動力學外，幾個因素正在助長衰退，包括上周遭受15億美元黑客攻擊的Bybit Exchange，削弱了投資者的信心。

"The Bybit hack will exert additional downward pressure on price, and the announcement of new tariffs by President Trump on Mexico and Canada sparks inflation concerns, dampening the outlook for risk assets in general," said Chris Newhouse, a researcher at Cumberland Labs.

坎伯蘭郡實驗室的研究人員克里斯·紐豪斯（Chris Newhouse）表示：“ Bybit Hack將對價格施加額外的下行壓力，特朗普總統對墨西哥和加拿大的新關稅引發了通貨膨脹的關注，從而削弱了風險資產的前景。”

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation report comes out Friday, which could influence interest rates and, in turn, affect cryptocurrency markets.

美聯儲的首選通貨膨脹報告週五發布，這可能會影響利率，進而影響加密貨幣市場。

Cryptocurrency markets are also facing additional strain as the "memecoin boom" appears to be coming to an end.

由於“ Memecoin Boom”似乎即將結束，加密貨幣市場也正面臨額外的壓力。

Popular tokens, including LIBRA, are being associated with a scandal involving Argentina's president, and Melania Trump's namesake token has seen a decline of over 20% this week.

包括天秤座在內的流行代幣與涉及阿根廷總統的醜聞有關，梅拉尼亞·特朗普的同名令牌本週的下降超過20％。

This signals that the memecoin frenzy might be winding down, which could reduce the speculative demand that had been pushing some altcoins to new highs earlier this year.

這表明Memecoin Frenzy可能正在結束，這可能會減少今年早些時候將一些Altcoins推向新高點的投機需求。

In other news, trading data from Deribit shows that investors are preparing for the possibility of even lower prices in the coming weeks.

在其他新聞中，來自deribit的交易數據表明，投資者正在準備在接下來的幾週內降低價格的可能性。

Many investors are buying options that will pay out if Bitcoin drops to the $70,000 level by the March series expiry.

許多投資者正在購買期權，如果比特幣在3月系列到期時將比特幣降至70,000美元。

This suggests that some market participants are anticipating a continuation of the recent sell-off, with a potential for a significant drop to the $70,000 level being priced in.

這表明，一些市場參與者預計最近拋售會繼續，可能會大幅下降至70,000美元的價格。

At this price point, strong support from previous lows and the Fibonacci retracement level could encourage buyers to step back in, potentially setting the stage for a rebound. However, only time will tell if this anticipation is accurate.

在這個價格點上，以前的低點和斐波那契回溯水平的大力支持可以鼓勵買家介入，有可能為反彈奠定基礎。但是，只有時間才能確定此期望是否準確。

Market watchers will be focusing on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve decisions in March, which could signal a turning point for cryptocurrency markets.

市場觀察者將重點關注即將到來的經濟數據和美聯儲的決策，這可能標誌著加密貨幣市場的轉折點。

For now, the "Trump bump" that propelled Bitcoin to record highs appears to be fading as economic reality sets in, and traders are adjusting their positions accordingly.

就目前而言，隨著經濟現實的發展，推動比特幣記錄高點的“特朗普碰碰”似乎正在逐漸消失，而交易者正在相應地調整其立場。