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自9月7日比特幣觸及53,900美元以來,一直處於持續上漲模式,最終兩次嘗試突破65,000美元阻力位
Bitcoin finally reached $65,000 after a long wait, but it does not look like BTC can sustain at this point. Since September 7 after bitcoin reached $53,900, it has been continuously rising and finally in two attempts breached the resistance at $65k. Let us explore the reasons why we believe bitcoin can retrace back to $64000 or even lower to $63,200.
經過漫長的等待,比特幣終於達到了 65,000 美元,但目前來看 BTC 似乎無法維持下去。自從9月7日比特幣觸及53,900美元以來,它一直在不斷上漲,最終兩次嘗試突破65,000美元的阻力位。讓我們探討為什麼我們相信比特幣可以回撤至 64,000 美元,甚至低至 63,200 美元。
Chart Analysis
圖表分析
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,660 which is above the resistance zone of $65,520. The four hourly chart shows that before finally breaching this section bitcoin had multiple failed attempts. Usually in such a case Bitcoin fails to cross and falls back to reclaim a support zone. This happens because the buyers get exhausted which gives a clean chance to the sellers to drag down the market. However in this case, it looks like more buyers were present during this time and that helped the crypto to rise.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格為 65,660 美元,高於 65,520 美元的阻力區。四小時圖顯示,在最終突破該區域之前,比特幣曾多次失敗的嘗試。通常在這種情況下,比特幣無法穿越並回落以收回支撐區域。發生這種情況是因為買家精疲力竭,這給了賣家拖累市場的絕佳機會。然而,在這種情況下,看起來這段時間有更多的買家出現,這有助於加密貨幣的上漲。
In this case, the possibility of Bitcoin claiming a support above $65,500 looks thin as RSI is about at the border of overbuying. RSI stands at 70 points and this can cause BTC to come down. Before retracing its steps, there are chances of bitcoin touching $67,000 but might fail to claim a support. On the other hand, if bulls want the market to open in a positive area, they must close the price above the sixty five thousand dollar zone.
在這種情況下,比特幣獲得 65,500 美元上方支撐的可能性看起來很小,因為 RSI 大約處於超買邊緣。 RSI 處於 70 點,這可能會導致 BTC 下跌。在回調之前,比特幣有可能觸及 67,000 美元,但可能無法獲得支撐。另一方面,如果多頭希望市場在積極區域開盤,他們必須將價格收在六萬五千美元區域之上。
The Negative Chart Pattern
負面圖表模式
On an hourly chart, if we see the current tip of this chart (marked on picture above), we can see the formation of a shooting star. This is a bearish pattern and is powerful when it appears at the top of a trend. If we take September 7 as the bottom of this trend, the current zone can be considered as the top. The appearance of the shooting star candle pattern along with the negative confirmation candle gives out the vibe of bitcoin rejection from this zone. There is a chance that bitcoin nullifies this pattern if the buying power stays strong.
在每小時圖表上,如果我們看到該圖表的當前尖端(如上圖所示),我們可以看到流星的形成。這是一種看跌形態,當它出現在趨勢頂部時非常強大。如果我們以9月7日為這一趨勢的底部,則當前區域可以被視為頂部。流星蠟燭圖和負面確認蠟燭圖的出現,散發出該區域拒絕比特幣的氣氛。如果購買力保持強勁,比特幣就有可能消除這種模式。
Market Psychology
市場心理學
As today is the last day before the weekend, it is very crucial for the buyers to close the daily candle above $65,000. The bearish month of September is going to close on a Monday and the market should not enter a bullish month with a negative sentiment. Everybody is expecting the bull run to continue and for that Bitcoin must move to create an All Time High.
由於今天是周末前的最後一天,因此對於買家而言,將每日蠟燭線收於 65,000 美元以上至關重要。 9月的看跌月將在周一結束,市場不應帶著負面情緒進入看漲月。每個人都期望牛市繼續下去,因此比特幣必須創造歷史新高。
Liquidation Data
強平數據
In the last 24 hours, over 72,000 traders have been liquidated. The most crucial time frame is the last 12 hours. During this period maximum short traders were liquidated as bitcoin kept rising with slight corrections. In the last 4 hours, a total of $26.71 millions worth of traders were liquidated. As the market keeps on rising, traders with shorts open will keep getting liquidation in the absence of stop-loss.
過去 24 小時內,已有超過 72,000 名交易者被清算。最關鍵的時間範圍是最後12小時。在此期間,隨著比特幣持續上漲並略有調整,最大的空頭交易者被清算。過去4小時內,共有價值2,671萬美元的交易者被清算。隨著市場不斷上漲,空頭交易者在沒有止損的情況下將不斷被平倉。
What to Expect?
期待什麼?
Long traders and investors are no doubt expecting the market to keep rising however that is not possible in any scenario. Traders must keep in mind that they are against the market and hence getting over confidence in such critical areas might cost them their funds. In case Bitcon fails to register the support above $65,500 there are chances it comes down to 64,000. This zone can provide support from the trendline as well as from moving average 20. Also the presence of shooting star patterns might give some trouble. If the buying powers keep coming bitcoin only has to justify one support on 4 hourly chart and confirm it. It would be very interesting to see if bulls would be able to hold the price above $63,000 or will it fall back to $64,000.
多頭交易者和投資者無疑期望市場繼續上漲,但這在任何情況下都是不可能的。交易者必須記住,他們是反對市場的,因此對這些關鍵領域的過度信心可能會導致他們損失資金。如果 Bitcon 未能達到 65,500 美元以上的支撐位,則有可能跌至 64,000 美元。該區域可以提供來自趨勢線以及移動平均線 20 的支撐。如果購買力持續增加,比特幣只需在 4 小時圖上證明一個支撐位並予以確認即可。看看多頭能否將價格維持在 63,000 美元以上,還是回落至 64,000 美元,這將是非常有趣的事情。
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