比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）將在2月最糟糕的幾年中，儘管分析師認為牛市還沒有結束

比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）將結束一個艱難的月份，BTC下降了7.8％，至86774.59美元，ETH下跌9.47％至2403美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are setting up for their worst February in years, with both cryptocurrencies heading for a rough month. As of early Friday morning, BTC dropped over 7.8% to $86,774.59 and ETH plunged 9.47% to $2,403.

比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）正在為他們多年來最糟糕的2月份設置，這兩種加密貨幣都持續了一個艱難的月份。截至週五凌晨，BTC下降了7.8％以上，至86,774.59美元，ETH下跌了9.47％至2,403美元。

Should both close the month at current levels, it would be their worst February since 2017 and 2021, respectively. However, despite the downturn, voices in the crypto space aren't panicking. Many still see a long-term bull market in the making, though they're adjusting their expectations as the crypto cycles evolve.

如果兩者都以當前水平結束，那將是他們自2017年和2021年以來最糟糕的2月。然而，儘管經濟低迷，加密貨幣空間中的聲音並不恐慌。儘管加密週期的發展，許多人仍在製作中看到長期的牛市。

Changing landscape of altcoins

改變山寨幣的景觀

Pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi believes the days of explosive altcoin rallies, like in 2017 and 2021, may be gone for good. "I think for alts, we will never see a run like 2017 / 2021 again. But I also said that previous to this run, I thought we'd never see a decent alt season again after 2017 (most alts still down 90% from ATH).")

化名加密交易員Pentoshi認為，像2017年和2021年一樣，爆炸性的Altcoin集會的日子可能永遠消失。 “我認為對於Alts，我們再也看不到2017 /2021這樣的跑步了。但是我還說，在此之前，我認為我們在2017年之後再也看不到一個體面的Alt賽季（大多數Alts仍然比ATH下降了90％）。”）。”

"Now, pnde in 2021 went to 64k% gain (from 0.0001 to 0.064) and we saw triple digit gains on many alts. The space is just way too big now, with hundreds of millions of people where as there we really did start at 0 for defi and in 2017 all alts combined were 13B. We just started at such a high floor," the trader wrote on X, discussing the vast difference in starting capital.

“現在，2021年的PNDE增長了64,000％（從0.0001到0.064），我們看到了許多替代品的三位數增長。現在的空間太大了，數以千計的人確實在Defi開始時確實從0開始，而在2017年開始，所有的alts又在2017年開始了13B。

"I also believe the next bubble won't even be in crypto, it’s likely going to be in Robotics/AI. 50% of the global GDP is labor, a 50T annual market as Kang pointed out. People get paid to use their time, but robots don't need to be paid to work 24/7."

“我也相信下一個泡沫甚至不會進入加密貨幣，它很可能會使用機器人/AI。全球GDP的50％是勞動力，正如康指出的那樣，這是50噸的年度市場。人們得到了薪水來利用自己的時間，但是機器人不需要為24/7/7/7的工資付費。”

While Pentoshi still sees opportunities in crypto, the trader emphasizes that the market is maturing and unrealistic expectations need to be adjusted.

儘管Pentoshi仍然看到加密貨幣的機會，但交易者強調市場正在成熟，需要調整不切實際的期望。

"My final takeaway is that I’m not surprised people are getting bored of crypto after 18 months of sideways action. But I also think that people have lost perspective on how good things still are in crypto. Relative to other markets, crypto has performed exceptionally well during a time of macroeconomic hardship. We’re still very early in the grand scheme of things. Expecting 1000% gains on new coins every year is not realistic, and neither is expecting a rapid return to the ATHs we saw in 2021. As the market matures, we should expect smaller gains and a more gradual upward trend."

“我最後的收穫是，在側面行動18個月後，我並不感到驚訝。但是我也認為，人們對加密貨幣的好處的看法失去了看法。相對於其他市場，加密貨幣的表現非常出色，在宏觀經濟上的艱辛中，我們仍然很早就期望每年都有一個新的努力21.隨著市場的成長，我們應該期望較小的收益和更逐漸的上升趨勢。”

New bull market

新的牛市

Bitcoin's halving events have historically driven massive bull runs, but this time, things may be different. Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), sees a shift in how the market reacts.

比特幣的減半活動歷史上驅動了大規模的公牛跑步，但這一次，情況可能有所不同。 Riot Platforms（NASDAQ：RIOT）研究副總裁Pierre Rochard看到市場反應的轉變。

"Historically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoin’s new supply and sparked parabolic price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market. This, coupled with changes in U.S. policy and increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a different kind of bitcoin bull market," Rochard said.

"Historically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoin's new supply and sparked parabolic price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market. This, coupled with changes in US policy and increasing institutional interest, is setting the stage for a different kind of bitcoin bull market," Rochard said.

Instead of a rapid price surge, he expects a slower, more stable climb, “align[ing] with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past.”

他預計價格較慢，穩定的攀登不是快速的價格上漲，“與潛在的需求保持一致，而不是過去的急劇和崩潰。”

Rochard also notes that changes in U.S. policy under President Donald Trump could provide a more favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin.

羅沙德還指出，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統領導下的美國政策的變化可以為比特幣提供更有利的監管環境。

"President Trump’s historic return to the White House is ushering in a new regulatory era for bitcoin, reversing the strict capital controls and compliance burdens previously placed on banks. This move opens up opportunities for institutions to engage more easily with bitcoin.”

“特朗普總統的歷史回歸白宮正在為比特幣的新監管時代帶來了迎接，扭轉了以前放在銀行上的嚴格資本控制和合規負擔。此舉為機構提供了更輕鬆地與比特幣參與的機構的機會。”

This, coupled with increasing institutional interest, is helping solidify Bitcoin’s position in the traditional financial system, Rochard explains.

Rochard解釋說，這與越來越多的機構利益相結合，正在幫助鞏固比特幣在傳統金融體系中的地位。

"From ETFs that wrap bitcoin exposure into a digestible format to large companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) that hold substantial reserves in BTC with intelligent leverage, the financial industry is recognizing bitcoin’s potential as an alternative asset. This, in turn, is driving further institutional capital into the space."

“從將比特幣暴露在可消化格式中的ETF到像MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）這樣的大型公司，這些公司擁有智能槓桿的BTC儲備金，財務產業正在承認比特幣的潛力是替代資產。這反過來又推動了進一步的機構資本進入該空間。”

That said, Rochard acknowledges the risks, stating that “over-leveraged traders will continue to spark sudden liquidations, while macroeconomic events and pauses in demand inevitably cause periods of sideways price action and corrections within the bull run.”

話雖如此，羅沙德承認這些風險，並指出：“過度槓桿的交易者將繼續引發突然的清算，而宏觀經濟事件和需求的停頓不可避免地會導致側向價格行動和公牛運行中的更正。”

Even so, he remains bullish in the long term, suggesting that “the long-term strategy for bitcoin remains ongoing accumulation. As institutions and individuals continue to allocate capital to bitcoin, we can

即便如此，他長期仍然看好他，這表明“比特幣的長期戰略仍在持續積累。隨著機構和個人繼續將資本分配給比特幣，我們可以