比特幣（BTC）進入週期的第三階段：這意味著什麼？

根據 SMA 乘數圖表，第一種加密貨幣比特幣 (BTC) 剛剛重新進入其價格週期的「橘色」階段。

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is trading closer than ever to the coveted $100,000 price level. While some are convinced that the markets are already overheated, researchers at CryptoQuant are explaining why the peak might be much further away. Here's why the situation might be mirroring the cautious optimism of Q2 2020.

比特幣（BTC）是市值領先的加密貨幣，其交易價格比以往任何時候都更接近令人垂涎的 10 萬美元價格水平。儘管有些人確信市場已經過熱，但 CryptoQuant 的研究人員正在解釋為什麼高峰可能還很遙遠。這就是為什麼這種情況可能反映出 2020 年第二季的謹慎樂觀。

Bitcoin (BTC) Enters Third Phase of Cycle: What Does This Mean?

比特幣（BTC）進入週期的第三階段：這意味著什麼？

Bitcoin (BTC), the first cryptocurrency by creation, has just entered the "orange" phase of its price cycle again, according to the SMA Multiplier chart.

根據 SMA 乘數圖表，比特幣（BTC）是第一個誕生的加密貨幣，剛剛再次進入其價格週期的「橙色」階段。

With this, BTC has now moved into the third stage of its rally out of the eight stages registered in previous years, as pointed out by Axel Adler, a community expert at CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 社群專家 Axel Adler 指出，至此，比特幣漲勢已進入前幾年的八個階段的第三階段。

The orange dot has arrived.

橙色點已到達。

Red, purple, blue, navy, and black - is coming. pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE

紅色、紫色、藍色、海軍藍和黑色即將到來。 pic.twitter.com/PSKIPishmE

The model, as explained by the speaker, takes the four-year (1,458-day) simple moving average of daily BTC prices and calculates the ratio between the current price and SMA1458, which is then called the SMA Multiplier.

正如演講者所解釋的，該模型採用每日 BTC 價格的四年（1,458 天）簡單移動平均線，併計算當前價格與 SMA1458 之間的比率，即所謂的 SMA 乘數。

To visualize how "early we are still," the model then maps each multiplier to a different color range: Green (<1.5), Yellow (1.5-2), Orange (2-2.5), and more. In each cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) moves through the green, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, navy, and black "zones."

為了可視化“我們還很早”，模型隨後將每個乘數映射到不同的顏色範圍：綠色 (<1.5)、黃色 (1.5-2)、橙色 (2-2.5) 等。在每個週期中，比特幣（BTC）都會穿過綠色、黃色、橙色、紅色、紫色、藍色、海軍藍和黑色「區域」。

At current sub-$100,000 prices, Bitcoin (BTC) is seen to be in the "orange zone" on the logarithmic scale.

以目前低於 10 萬美元的價格，比特幣 (BTC) 被視為處於對數尺度的「橙色區域」。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju confirms that the model is valid for the ongoing cycle, which is net bullish for Bitcoiners.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 確認模型對於當前週期有效，這對比特幣持有者來說是淨利好。

Bitcoin cyclical top still has a long way to go.

比特幣週期性頂部仍有很長的路要走。

This rhymes with late Q3 2019 and Q2 2020 when Bitcoin was trying to conquer the 10K level.

這與 2019 年第三季末和 2020 年第二季比特幣試圖突破 10K 水準的情況相符。

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Discovery Patterns Hint At Seven-Digit Levels

比特幣（BTC）價格發現模式暗示七位數水平

On the "descending" pattern, Bitcoin (BTC) entered similar zones just before the crash of the Terra/Luna ecosystem in May 2022.

在「下降」模式中，比特幣 (BTC) 在 2022 年 5 月 Terra/Luna 生態系統崩潰之前進入了類似區域。

Yesterday, Nov. 22, Bitcoin (BTC) hit another all-time high over $99,600 on major spot exchanges, as reported by CoinGecko.

根據 CoinGecko 報道，昨天，即 11 月 22 日，比特幣 (BTC) 在主要現貨交易所創下了 99,600 美元以上的歷史新高。

Recently, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared two "parabolic" scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) price discovery in this run.

最近，CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 分享了本輪比特幣 (BTC) 價格發現的兩個「拋物線」場景。

#Bitcoin parabolic bull scenario during price discovery https://t.co/ARK79Kz2ti pic.twitter.com/VPi0mFZXmz

#價格發現期間的比特幣拋物線牛市情境 https://t.co/ARK79Kz2ti pic.twitter.com/VPi0mFZXmz

If the run were to follow the 2017 pattern, it would put $1.15 million as the target price for Bitcoin (BTC). A more conservative 2020 pattern hints at $262,000 as the maximum.

如果這次運行遵循 2017 年的模式，比特幣 (BTC) 的目標價將是 115 萬美元。較保守的 2020 年模式暗示最高限額為 262,000 美元。