Bitcoin Rallies on Regulatory Optimism, Vaneck Predicts More All-Time Highs

Vaneck analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel believe bitcoin's price surge to record highs reflects a transformative moment for the digital asset

VanEck analysts are bullish on bitcoin, predicting more all-time highs fueled by favorable regulatory developments.

According to the firm's mid-November analysis, bitcoin's recent price surge is fueled by investor optimism over policy shifts following President-elect Donald Trump's victory. On election night, bitcoin surged nearly 9% to reach $75,000 as markets reacted to Trump's campaign promises to eliminate the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) “regulation-by-enforcement” approach and pave the way for crypto-friendly legislation.

“Trump has already begun appointing pro-crypto figures throughout the executive branch, while the Republican party now boasts a unified government, heightening the potential for supportive legislation,” said Frankovitz and Sigel. “Such legislation includes proposals like creating a national Bitcoin reserve — the odds of which are trading at 34% on Polymarket as of November 19th — and rewriting crypto market structure and stablecoin draft legislation.”

The analysts also compared the current rally to the post-2020 election rally, during which bitcoin's price more than doubled by year-end, ultimately achieving a 137% gain in 2021. VanEck predicts a similar trajectory this cycle, citing key market indicators.

For instance, bitcoin's dominance, a measure of its market share relative to all cryptocurrencies, reached 59% in November, its highest level since March 2021, indicating renewed confidence in the asset.

VanEck's research also highlighted robust onchain metrics. Bitcoin's network activity remained resilient, with daily transactions approaching all-time highs and transfer volumes increasing by 118% month-over-month. Despite a 15% decline in transaction counts, larger payloads resulted in record-high average transaction sizes.

The report further added: “With bitcoin's price trading at all-time highs, approximately 99% of all bitcoin addresses are currently profitable.”

While optimistic about bitcoin's near-term performance, Frankovitz and Sigel cautioned against potential overheating. Their analysis of perpetual futures funding rates, a key indicator of market sentiment, showed that sustained high rates often coincide with cycle tops.

As of mid-November, funding rates approached levels historically linked to short-term gains but signaled diminishing returns over longer time horizons. Bitcoin's unrealized profit metrics further supported the bullish outlook.

VanEck noted that relative unrealized profits, a measure of paper gains, were within a range typically associated with the middle stages of bull markets. However, should these levels approach historical peaks, it could signal an increased risk of market corrections as profit-taking accelerates.

“Historically, elevated 30-day moving average (DMA) RUP levels — especially above 0.60 and 0.70 — indicate strong market sentiment and potential overheating,” VanEck's report noted.

Retail interest also showed signs of recovery. According to VanEck, search term popularity for “crypto” remained well below previous bull market peaks, suggesting that the current rally could continue to grow before reaching speculative excess.

Meanwhile, VanEck highlighted increased public attention, with trading platform engagement, such as the Coinbase app surging to a top-10 rank.

VanEck highlighted the crucial role of the regulatory environment in shaping bitcoin's future. The firm anticipates that Trump's administration will repeal restrictive measures like the SEC's accounting bulletin and pave the way for broader adoption by encouraging banks to offer crypto custody solutions.

Moreover, legislation enabling stablecoin issuance by state-chartered banks could bolster U.S. dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.