Bitcoin (BTC) Price Shows Rare Discount as 60-Day Realized Value to Market Cap Variance (RCV) Drops to Its Lowest Level on Record

Bitcoin price is showing a rare discount as its 60-day Realized Value to Market Cap Variance (RCV) drops to its lowest level

Key Insights:

* Bitcoin price is showing a rare discount as its 60-day Realized Value to Market Cap Variance (RCV) drops to its lowest level on record.

* At the time of writing, BTC price is experiencing some resistance in retail investor demand while negative funding rates and a declining Coinbase Premium indicate strong bearish sentiment.

* However, data suggests a key moment for accumulation as 60-day RCV drops to lows not seen since 2023.

Following a recent downturn, Bitcoin price experienced a rebound from key Fibonacci support levels, reaching highs of $92,000 in February 2025.

However, despite this recovery attempt, the cryptocurrency encountered resistance at the 0% neutral level on an indicator called Retail Investor Demand (RID). This is an important indicator of Bitcoin adoption and buying interest.

As seen on the chart above, after a period of oversaturated demand, the indicator began to quickly fall back into negative territory.

This had a significant impact on BTC price, causing it to drop to $88,000. However, data suggests that demand is quickly picking up again.

According to Glassnode, when RID moves above 0%, Bitcoin generally enjoys new momentum. This metric is being closely monitored by analysts to determine whether Bitcoin will bounce upward or remain at these secondary levels.

After a period of high volatility following the cryptocurrency winter of 2022, market conditions have calmed down, and recent data shows that many exchanges have begun to experience negative funding rates.

If futures price is less than spot price, it’s an excess of the short positions and results in negative funding rate on futures exchanges. If futures price is greater than spot price, it’s called funding rate.

This signals that traders are short on Bitcoin and anticipate a price drop in the coming period. However, if the total value of futures is less than the market cap of Bitcoin, it indicates that there are more buyers than sellers in the market.

Moreover, the Coinbase Premium has turned negative, indicating that selling pressure is intensifying on Coinbase compared to other exchanges.

This metric measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other platforms. Typically, when Coinbase trades at a premium, it suggests stronger buying activity from institutional investors. Conversely, a negative premium indicates a stronger presence of sell-side traders, such as institutional and retail investors.

Key Moment For Accumulation As 60-Day RCV Drops To Its Lowest Level On Record

Bitcoin’s 60-day RCV, which stands for Realized Value to Market Cap Variance, has dropped to its lowest point ever, reaching a 0.27 reading.

This metric, created by renowned on-chain analyst Willy Wu, measures the correlation between Bitcoin’s realized and market capitalization over a rolling window of 60 days. A lower RCV indicates a more favorable buying zone, while a higher RCV suggests overvaluation.

As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s Normalized RCV is currently in the lowest territory, and at this point, it has entered the “Low Risk (Accumulation Zone)” before price recoveries in the past.

This metric dropping below 0.30 has often put Bitcoin in strong buy zones, with prior similar occurrences in history, such as in 2011 and 2015, later showing up as ideal accumulation zones.

After the 2011 drop, Bitcoin went on a 600% run in the following two years. A similar occurrence in 2015 saw Bitcoin enter a four-year bull market after the RCV dropped below 0.30.

This time around, the metric fell below this crucial point in December 2024, presenting a unique opportunity for long-term investors to utilize Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to scale into BTC positions.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $42,000, which is also the level at which 60-day RCV dropped below 0.30.

This triple confluence at a key technical support, technical indicator, and on-chain metric suggests that the cryptocurrency could be deeply undervalued.